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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 606 Am Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Today..SE winds 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A slight chance of tstms. Showers.
Sun night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers with a slight chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt.
Mon night..N winds 10 kt.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt.
Wed night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less.
charleston harbor water temperature 59 degrees.

AMZ300 606 Am Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will remain off the coast through today. A strong cold front will cross the area Sunday evening, followed by cool and dry high pressure through late week.

FXUS62 KCHS 091135 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 635 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will remain off the coast through today. A strong cold front will cross the area Sunday evening, followed by cool and dry high pressure through late week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
At daybreak, IR satellite and observations did not indicate that fog has developed over coastal GA. Dewpoint observations indicated values in the mid to upper 50s south of the Savannah River. The forecast will continue to feature a mention of patchy fog until 8 AM.

The forecast area will remain east of an approaching cold front today and tonight. The cold front is timed to sweep across the lower Mississippi River Valley this evening, reaching the southern Appalachians by 12Z Sun. Return flow across the CWA will gradually strengthen through the near term period. Steady south-southeast winds should result in dewpoints to rise through the day, exceeding 60 degrees by mid-day. High resolution guidance indicates that a sea breeze will develop by 17Z, advancing inland through the rest of the daylight hours.

Tonight, forecast soundings indicate that H85 winds early this evening will remain from the south between 10-15 kts, then strengthening to 25-30 kts by 12Z Sun. The strengthening return flow ahead of the cold front should transport greater PW values across SE GA/SC, reaching 1.4 inches or greater by 12Z. Guidance indicates that a plume of SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will slide over the coastal waters as dewpoints surge into the upper 60s during the pre-dawn hours. The instability should support scattered to numerous showers, with isolated thunderstorms just offshore. Isolated to scattered showers are forecast across SE GA/SC before sunrise Sunday. Low temperatures should remain in the 60s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A sharp upper trough will swing into the area on Sunday, pushing a cold front through early Sunday evening. 45-50 kt southerly 0-6 km winds will advect unseasonably moist air into the area during the day with PWATs rising above 1.6". Fairly strong upper jet divergence will overspread the area from the west late Sunday morning. Guidance shows a potent shortwave lifting up the coast late Sunday morning into early afternoon, potentially bring convection into coastal areas ahead of the main frontal band. The model consensus now shows the leading band of convection associated with the cold front moving into our western areas late Sunday morning, then reaching the eastern half of the area later Sunday afternoon. The expected sharp veering behind the front depicts a typical anafront, so we should see precipitation continue well into the evening despite fropa having occurred. Precip should rapidly taper off later Sunday night. Most areas are expected to receive at least 0.5-1.0" of precipitation, though inland areas could pick up more than an inch.

We included slight chance thunder over most of the area on Sunday given at least weak instability. Most guidance including the HRRR are pretty conservative with CAPE, mainly showing less than 500 J/kg due to extensive clouds and precipitation. 40-50 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear and as much as 200 m2/s2 0-3 km helicity indicate a kinematic environment conducive to storm organization should greater instability materialize. There are some indications that slightly greater instability could develop over the Charleston Tri-County Area late Sunday afternoon immediately preceding the front. SPC continues to show portions of our area in a Marginal Risk for Sunday.

Gusty south winds expected on Sunday, then a potential surge early Sunday evening immediately behind the front. At the moment our land-based winds remain below Wind Advisory criteria, though it's possible there could be a short 1-2 hr window of advisory level winds post-fropa. A Lake Wind Advisory seems more likely given that the criteria is only 25 kt. Mixing profiles on Sunday will be rather poor due to warm advection over a cold lake, but the low-level winds should be strong enough to produce some 25 kt gusts.

The weather Monday into Tuesday will be cool and dry with highs in the 50s. Tuesday morning lows will probably drop below freezing across the inland half of the area due to strong cold air advection.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Cool and dry high pressure will prevail for next week. Temps will remain a few degrees below normal.

AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR conditions expected at KCHS and KJZI through 12Z Sun. Dewpoints are forecast to rise into the low to mid 60s across KSAV tonight. MOS is quite aggressive with the development of LIFR vis and ceiling conditions across KSAV tonight. This would likely result from the develop of sea fog or stratus build down. The KSAV TAF will trend toward restrictive flight conditions tonight, with MVFR ceilings developing by 5Z.
The TAF will also feature a TEMPO from 8-12Z for fog and borderline IFR ceilings.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions likely Sunday and Sunday night due to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. Gusty south winds Sunday afternoon/evening.
Marginal LLWS possible Sunday late afternoon and early evening.
VFR thereafter.

MARINE
Today and tonight, SSE winds will gradually strengthen across the waters as a cold front approaches from the west. Winds today should generally range between 5-10 kts. Tonight, wind are expected to increase to 10-15 kts, with gusts around 20 kts across portions of AMZ350 and 374 late tonight. Isolated light showers are possible today, generally 15 nm or greater offshore. Guidance indicates that a plume of SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will slide over the marine zones tonight, especially as dewpoints surge into the upper 60s during the pre-dawn hours Sunday morning. The instability should support scattered to numerous showers, with isolated thunderstorms just offshore.

Southerly winds will strengthen on Sunday ahead of a strong cold front. Small Craft Advisory criteria wind gusts and seas may move into outer portions of the waters Sunday afternoon, then a more potent wind surge is expected Sunday evening immediately following the cold front. We will definitely have Small Craft Advisory conditions for all waters during this time. Some 35 kt gusts will also be possible, and we cannot yet rule out a Gale Watch or Warning for at least portions of the waters. SCA conditions may linger into Monday, mainly due to seas, before conditions improve as high pressure builds in. A strengthening NE gradient could build seas back into SCA territory Tuesday night or Wednesday, likely persisting well into late week.

EQUIPMENT
KCLX returned to service Friday morning, but internal hardware issues are preventing Level-2 data from being distributed. External users will not have access to KCLX radar data until new hardware is installed. Parts are expected to arrive this weekend. KCLX data is available internally to the NWS via AWIPS.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Charleston
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Sat -- 03:44 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:53 AM EST     5.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:11 AM EST     0.77 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:47 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:59 PM EST     4.73 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:13 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 11:16 PM EST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Charleston, South Carolina, Tide feet

Charleston Harbor Entrance
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Sat -- 01:39 AM EST     1.41 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:44 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:27 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:45 AM EST     -2.05 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:49 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:57 PM EST     1.35 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:47 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:13 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:16 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:45 PM EST     -1.85 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:52 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current, knots

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Charleston, SC,