Friday, March5, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dallas, TX

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 6:28PM Friday March 5, 2021 1:03 AM CST (07:03 UTC) Moonrise 12:41AMMoonset 11:10AM Illumination 60% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dallas, TX
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location: 32.79, -96.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 050631 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1231 AM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

. New Short Term, Aviation .

SHORT TERM. /NEW/ /Rest of Tonight through Saturday/

Water vapor and satellite imagery show an upper low spinning across southeast Colorado spreading into the OK/TX Panhandles at this hour. Ahead of this feature, a surface low is centered between Childress, TX and Altus, OK with southerly flow in place across North Texas. An area of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing across parts of central Oklahoma where the strongest mid level forcing for ascent is present. This upper low and its associated surface low is expected to move across North Texas later today and will bring at least low chances for thunderstorms to parts of the region.

The 00Z FWD sounding showed a pronounced elevated mixed layer above us with moisture residing primarily above 600 mb. The isolated light showers on radar across our northeast counties are based within this moist layer and are precipitating into this dry layer beneath. So at least initially, much of this activity is likely not reaching the ground. However, continued light precipitation will help to moisten the lower levels of the atmosphere through the early morning. As the upper trough gets closer by mid morning, we should see an uptick in activity mainly across our far eastern counties. This activity should be in the form of high based showers, but as we get into the late morning, there should be enough instability for a few rumbles of thunder as well.

The surface low center is expected to track right across the Metroplex by midday with the core of the upper trough tracking very close by into the early afternoon. There will be an axis of instability that develops with MLCAPE topping out around 750 J/kg during the mid afternoon hours. This instability max occurs beneath the core of the upper low where mid level temperatures are coldest and lapse rates steepen. Mid level forcing for ascent peaks between 19-23Z, so it remains to be seen if we can get a few isolated thunderstorms to develop within this instability axis as the upper trough passes by. Moisture will be the biggest question, as there will still be plenty of dry air aloft, but if a few storms can develop, they may have a low end severe hail threat along with frequent lightning. We'll have PoPs at 20% through the afternoon with any activity quickly moving to the south and east by early evening.

North winds will fill in behind the front along with some cloud cover. Clouds should clear from north to south by early Saturday with highs topping out in the low/mid 60s.

Dunn

LONG TERM. /Issued 333 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021/ /This Weekend Through The Mid Next Week/

The current vigorous mid level disturbance and associated surface cold front expected tonight and Friday across the Central and Southern Plains will be exiting our Central Texas zones Friday evening. This will result in brisk and cooler weather on Saturday. Outside of a few sprinkles across our eastern Central Texas counties Friday evening, we do not expected significant or impactful weather Friday night. In wake of the cold front, gusty north-northeast winds 10 to 15 mph will result in "feel like" temperatures Saturday morning in the mid to upper 30s north of I-20/30. Otherwise, surface high pressure will slide southeast across the area with plentiful sunshine and resultant insolation. The dry and mostly sunny conditions will help high temperatures warm back into the lower to mid 60s in the afternoon. Southerly winds will return back to the area late Saturday night and increase to between 10 to 15 mph Sunday afternoon for most locales. Highs will warm to between 65 to 70 degrees with the increasing winds speeds and warmer temperatures coinciding with current moderate to severe drought conditions across the area for increasing elevated grass fire concerns in the afternoon for much of North and Central Texas Texas. A mid level disturbance will track across the CWA, but only produce some scattered mid and high clouds thanks to very dry low levels below 700mb.

North and Central Texas will be under the influence of strengthening shortwave ridging aloft in advance of a deepening longwave trough over the Pacific Northwest and CA/NV. Mass subsidence will maximize the early half of the week as flow aloft goes into a strong southwesterly configuration. The subsequent deepening surface trough along the lee of the Rockies and strong pressure gradient/mixing will result in several windy and warm days with temperatures averaging 15-25 degrees above normal by next Tuesday and Wednesday with no rainfall chances expected this weekend through Tuesday night. Highs Monday and Tuesday well into the 70s will increase to between 75-85 degrees for much of the area by Wednesday. Low PoPs across our northeast counties will return Wednesday and Wednesday night where low level warm advection maximizes moisture flux from the GOM. Most of the area however, will see little rainfall to help improve on our increasing drought conditions and very dry grasses and small vegetation. This will likely result in elevated fire weather conditions for the majority of the area, though we may need to start worrying about a critical fire weather threat evolving by mid week if the current forecast holds true considering cured fuels across the entire region.

Otherwise, our Western CONUS deep longwave trough will begin its migration east toward the Southern Plains and Texas. In addition, medium range ensembles are hinting at an associated cold front sliding into the area late next week. Considering the amount of moisture regeneration occurring for several days both at the surface and aloft, the chances for showers and storms will increase in the 7-10 day period. Increasing large-scale ascent associated with lead mid level disturbances and destabilization both at the surface and aloft in advance of the cold front should lend to increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms toward the end of next week. At this time, convection may remain even behind the cold front as strong upper level forcing remains detached to the west of the area. Many details remain unclear and as is usually the case with deep systems across southern latitudes in the far extended forecasts you can assume models and their ensembles may be a day or two too fast with things coming together convection- wise. We still need to be aware we are moving into the early stages of severe weather season and to start planning for the potential of severe weather events across the area. At this time, temperatures will likely remain a good 5-15 degrees above normal the the late extended periods moving into the weekend after next.

05/

AVIATION. /NEW/ /6Z TAFs/

VFR prevails across the region currently, but MVFR cigs are spreading northward out of Central Texas and will likely overspread Waco within the next few hours. A surface low near Childress will move southeast right across the Metroplex around midday. This will likely mean highly variable winds across the D10 airspace at least for a few hours. Areas to the east DFW/DAL may remain with south winds while AFW/FTW could go north until the low moves by. We'll show the changing wind directions at AFW/FTW by 15Z with north winds at all sites by 20Z. We'll continue with a few hours of TEMPO MVFR cigs this morning as moisture spreads northward. Otherwise, there is a low chance (~20%) for thunderstorms around the Metroplex this afternoon as the upper low moves across the region. Higher chances will occur farther east.

MVFR cigs are expected to spread in from the north behind the cold front by early evening and should persist into early Saturday morning.

Dunn

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Dallas-Ft. Worth 53 67 44 63 43 / 10 20 10 0 0 Waco 53 73 47 64 43 / 0 10 20 0 0 Paris 51 59 39 62 39 / 30 30 10 0 0 Denton 52 65 41 63 40 / 20 20 10 0 0 McKinney 53 64 42 63 40 / 10 20 10 0 0 Dallas 54 68 46 64 44 / 10 20 10 0 0 Terrell 52 65 42 62 40 / 10 20 20 0 0 Corsicana 52 70 46 63 42 / 5 20 20 0 0 Temple 52 75 47 65 43 / 0 0 5 0 0 Mineral Wells 49 67 42 63 41 / 20 20 5 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dallas Love Field, TX6 mi70 minSSE 12 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F40°F44%1013.3 hPa
Dallas, Redbird Airport, TX9 mi70 minSSE 1010.00 miFair59°F40°F49%1013.3 hPa
Dallas / Addison Airport, TX13 mi68 minSE 910.00 miFair61°F39°F45%1014.6 hPa
Mesquite, Mesquite Metro Airport, TX13 mi68 minSE 510.00 miFair55°F40°F57%1014.6 hPa
Lancaster Airport, TX15 mi68 minSSE 810.00 miFair55°F42°F62%1014.6 hPa
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, TX16 mi70 minSSE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F40°F48%1012.5 hPa
Grand Prairie, Grand Prairie Municipal Airport, TX16 mi68 minSE 610.00 miFair58°F40°F50%1014.2 hPa
Arlington Municipal Airport, TX19 mi70 minSE 910.00 miFair60°F42°F52%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDAL

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Last 24hrS7SE4S6S6S4SE5SE5SE4S6S7S8S9
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1 day agoCalmS3CalmSE3S6S6S6S4S6S7SW6SW8W43SE8SE10SE8S8S8S5SE8SE7SE4SE7
2 days agoE4CalmCalmE3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmW3345NW8N66W7CalmCalmSE5SE4SE6SE4SE4

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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