Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
West Tawakoni, TX

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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 5:21PM Saturday December 14, 2019 9:04 PM CST (03:04 UTC) Moonrise 7:56PMMoonset 9:34AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Tawakoni, TX
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Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 150037 AAA AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 637 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

UPDATE. A weak surface low was over the Texas Hill County as of nightfall this evening. A warm front extended east-northeast of this feature across western Central Texas, or generally near a Comanche- Gatesville-Hearne line. This was denoted well by warmer ambient temperatures in the lower 70s, versus the 50s/60s as you moved further north. In addition, RAP and LAPS surface-1000mb moisture advection was indicating better richer surface dew point temperatures in the 50s and low level theta-E advection moving in from the Upper Texas Coast.

Current 925mb flow near/south of the low level warm front was 10-15 knots. As a mid level impulse moves quickly east across AZ/NM and toward W TX by morning, these low level winds will veer southwesterly and increase 25-30 knots by/after midnight. With the airmass surface-925mb being semi-coupled overnight and Sunday morning, I expect the surface warm front will begin moving more progressively northward through the I-20 corridor and into the the Red River Valley and Southern Oklahoma by mid morning. As this occurs, the cooler airmass along and just north-northeast of the warm front should saturate with quickly for the formation of areas of fog and patchy drizzle. Brief, patchy dense fog can't be ruled out for a few hours across areas generally east of the Highway 281 corridor from Hamilton to Jacksboro, as winds veer east-southeast just in advance of the warm front. I expect the fog and drizzle event only to last maybe 2-3 hours, before dissipating rapidly in it's wake as south-southwest winds increase to between 10-15 mph and temperatures warm.

The afternoon hours Sunday will be mostly sunny, warm, and breezy with highs warming well into the 70s to even the lower 80s across western Central Texas. The warmth won't last long, however as our next strong cold front makes it's entrance into our those areas north of I-20 and west of I-35 during the late afternoon and evening hours. A much colder and brisk day is expected as you start your work week on Monday.

05/

AVIATION. /00z TAFs/

Concerns and challenges: Timing a warm FROPA northward through the region between 06z-18z Sunday, then the arrival of next strong cold FROPA and associated northerly wind shift by/after 00z Monday. Potential for a brief period of LIFR/IFR/low MVFR conditions due to -DZ/BR/patchy FG conditions along and in advance of the warm front moving north.

As noted by the public update above, a warm front was currently easing north into Central TX and toward Waco Regional Airport this evening. Mainly dry NW flow aloft was over the region with just sporadic and fast-moving mid-high clouds. VFR conditions with E flow 5 knots or less are expected north of the warm front and S/SSE 5-7 knots behind the warm front to the south of all airports. This should continue through 09z Sunday. As 925mb flow increases to between 20-30 knots overnight and in advance of the next mid level impulse approaching from the west, I expect the warm front to move more readily northward through all terminals in the 10z-16z Sunday time frame. The warm and moist low level advection associated with this feature moving over a cooler airmass n advance of the warm front will likely result in deteriorating conditions into IFR and even possibly LIFR conditions in stratus,-DZ, BR, and patchy FG or FG+.

Surface winds will readily shift S around 10 knots immediately after warm frontal passage, then veer SW 10-15 knots as the strong 925mb flow is mixed to the surface with the increasingly warmer airmass. Flight conditions will rapidly improve to VFR and SKC-SCT300 conditions. By 00z Monday, our next strong cold FROPA arrives into the D10 terminals a wind shift to N-NW at 15-20 knots w/ higher gusts. It's possible MVFR conditions may occur a few hours after FROPA if the frontal inversion saturates. However, the various short-term guidance doesn't completely agree that this will occur. I have left post cold FROPA conditions in VFR at the end of the 00z TAF cycle and will allow future forecasts to better address this potential Sunday evening.

05/

LONG TERM. /Issued 252 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019/ /Monday morning onward/

Synopsis: A strong cold front will pass through on Monday, bringing colder temperatures, and a chance of rain for areas east of I-35. A widespread freeze can be expected Tuesday night. Temperatures will return to near normal towards the middle of the week, with the next rain chances coming towards the end of the week. In the extended range, it is far too early to make a forecast with any real confidence for Christmas.

The upper-level pattern over the CONUS continues to be dominated by a broad trough extending nearly coast to coast. The axis of the trough lies roughly along the Mississippi River, and continues to translate eastward. At the surface, weak southerly flow is noted across North Texas, with temperatures in the low 60s at present time. Another quiet weather day is expected on Sunday as flow becomes more zonal (see short-term forecast discussion below).

Big changes will arrive early Monday morning. A strong shortwave trough, which is currently located about 150 miles off the Oregon coast will dive southeast across the western CONUS and into the Great Plains by late Sunday night. This shortwave trough will help drive a surface cold front through our region. The cold front should reach our northwestern counties by late Sunday evening. Winds may become a bit northerly a little ahead of the front, as a pre-frontal trough looks like it may become established during the afternoon hours. The true cold front will be marked by a stronger push of northerly winds, and colder temperatures. High temperatures on Monday are likely to remain in the 40s northwest of the Metroplex, in the 50s across DFW and into Central Texas, and in the 60s in our far southeastern counties (where the cold front will not arrive until later).

Strong ascent ahead of the cold front, supported by differential cyclonic vorticity advection will allow for some showers and a few thunderstorms to develop. Rain chances will increase the farther south and east one goes. At this time, severe weather looks unlikely, and rainfall totals should remain light.

Monday night will be cold with most of our CWA likely to experience freezing temperatures (the exception being our southeastern two tiers of counties). Tuesday night will be even colder as clear skies and light winds should allow for excellent radiational cooling. The entire CWA will see below freezing temperatures on Tuesday night, with temperatures in the low to mid 20s possible in our western counties where it will be a little drier and the elevation is slightly higher.

For the second half of the week, weak upper-level ridging will return, bringing temperatures back up to seasonal normals (mid to upper 50s) for Wednesday and through the end of the week. Another upper-level shortwave trough will approach the region on Friday, but a lack of moisture will keep rain chances low, and confined to areas east of I-35.

Looking way ahead to Christmas, the suite of deterministic and ensemble guidance seems to be in good agreement that a deep trough or upper-level low will be in place over the western U.S. While this pattern could result in some unsettled weather for the Southern Plains and into the Southwest, this is not a pattern that typically results in substantial cold air deliveries into our region. It is far too early to get into any kind of details right now, and it should be noted that this type of pattern typically has low predictability this far out (even if the models agree on the larger scale pattern). There's not a whole lot to say about the weather as we get close to Christmas other than there is great uncertainty, and we probably won't get a decent handle on even the major details for another 3-5 days.

37

SHORT TERM. /Issued 1213 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019/ /This afternoon through Sunday afternoon/

Zonal flow aloft will continue to bring in moisture from the Pacific today, resulting in scattered high clouds. There will still be plenty of sun across much of the region, allowing afternoon temperatures to warm into the 60s and lower 70s. The only exception will be along the Red River where cloud cover will be the thickest and most persistent, keeping temperatures in the upper 50s.

Surface high pressure will build southeast out of the Northern Plains today bringing a quick reinforcement of dry air followed by the return of low level moisture tonight once the surface ridge axis moves farther east and surface low pressure deepens across the southern High Plains. The surge of moisture over the relatively cool ground will result in the development of advection fog and even some drizzle. The fog could be dense at times, especially south of I-20 and east of I-35.

Although low level warm advection will increase through the day Sunday, some morning cloud cover and fog should slow daytime heating a bit, especially in the southeast zones. We also expect a cold front to arrive across the northwest zones by late Sunday afternoon which will also noticeably lower temperatures. Afternoon highs Sunday will range from the mid 60s in the north to near 80 across the southwest zones where daytime heating will get a boost from southwest winds/adiabatic warming. 79

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Dallas-Ft. Worth 48 74 42 52 32 / 0 0 5 10 0 Waco 48 78 46 57 32 / 0 0 10 20 0 Paris 42 69 45 52 29 / 0 5 40 40 0 Denton 45 73 40 49 29 / 0 0 5 5 0 McKinney 45 72 42 51 30 / 0 0 10 20 0 Dallas 48 75 43 52 32 / 0 0 5 10 0 Terrell 46 75 45 57 30 / 0 0 20 30 0 Corsicana 49 76 49 60 32 / 5 0 20 30 0 Temple 50 79 48 60 33 / 0 0 5 20 0 Mineral Wells 43 74 36 49 27 / 0 0 0 5 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

05/92


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Terrell, Terrell Municipal Airport, TX16 mi71 minNE 410.00 miFair52°F37°F59%1009.7 hPa
Greenville / Majors, TX19 mi74 minENE 510.00 miFair54°F37°F54%1010.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTRL

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Last 24hrN4N3CalmCalmN3CalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E8NE9E7NE6E5E7NE4E4NE5NE4NE6
1 day agoCalmE3CalmSE4SE5SE6S5S5S8S7S4S6SW8SW7NW55CalmN5N4N4N4NE3N3NE5
2 days agoSE4SE3CalmCalmSE3SE7SE5SE6S3NE3CalmSE3SE6S10S7S8S7S8SE12S10S3SE4S5S3

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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.