Saturday, June12, 2021
Privacy Policy
L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
West Tawakoni, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 8:34PM Saturday June 12, 2021 9:42 AM CDT (14:42 UTC) Moonrise 6:55AMMoonset 9:46PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Tawakoni, TX
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 32.81, -96     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS64 KFWD 121137 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 637 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

. New Short Term, Aviation .

SHORT TERM. /NEW/ Update:

Convection continues to roll southward toward the I-20 corridor this morning. While a weakening trend has been noted since storms crossed the Red River, there's a well established cold pool that is allowing convection to venture farther south than initially thought. PoPs have been nudged upward and expanded southward into the likely category for a good portion of North Texas and more in line with yesterday's NSSL WRF and the latest WRF-ARW solutions. With time, I do expect convection to gradually diminish though it may move south of I-20 early this morning. There's still a risk activity could linger or even re-develop across Northeast Texas this afternoon. The main storm hazard would be gusty downburst winds. Given that storms should decay before midday, highs remain unchanged. However, some locations north of I-20 may need to have MaxT's adjusted downward if remnant cloud cover is slow to thin/ scatter.

Bain

Previous Discussion: /Today and Tomorrow/

Showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front across central Oklahoma continue to slowly diminish as this activity dives southward. VWP at 925mb does indicate 20 to 25 knots of low level southerly flow across North Texas and central Oklahoma, and this may be transporting sufficient quantities of greater theta-e air such that the complex has been able to maintain its journey southward. Our evening balloon showed an even stronger cap than that indicated at OUN and so I do expect this stronger capping to be the ultimate demise of this complex. However, 20-30 PoP still appears appropriate with the greatest rain/storm chances near/ north of the US HWY 380 corridor as the storm complex has a well established cold pool. Severe weather is not expected and the main hazard will be gusty outflow winds, occasional lightning, and brief moderate rain.

Other than low level stratus invading Central Texas and portions of East Texas this morning, high level clouds will stream in from the north. Highs this afternoon are still expected to be similar to yesterday with widespread 90-degree heat; however, if cloud cover remains dense through peak heating this afternoon, MaxT grids will need to be adjusted downward. Slightly cooler conditions are possible across Northeast Texas where convective outflow may turn winds more northeasterly. The greatest heat index values across the area shake out to be in the 100 to 103 degree range. As a result, we will forgo the issuance of a Heat Advisory. The heart of mid-level ridge will be across El Paso and this may mean a slightly less subsident air across North Texas. With the airmass becoming uncapped and the presence of a mesoscale boundary, there's a low risk that showers and a few thunderstorms may pop up mainly east of US HWY 75 and north of I-20. Severe weather does not appear likely, but I cannot rule out some gusty downburst winds if storms develop.

Showers and storms will be diurnally driven and Saturday night will be quiet weather-wise. With the surface pressure loosening and modest low level moist convergence along the diffuse front/ outflow, there could be limited fog potential across Northeast Texas. For now, I'll omit the mention in the worded forecast, but we'll take another look at this later in the morning.

West of our region, showers and storms are expected to develop and move eastward during the pre-dawn hours on Sunday. At the present time, weak low-level flow will likely mean that precipitation diminishes before arriving into the Big Country; however, I'll advertise a 10 PoP for locales west of I-35 in the event that convection persists a little longer than currently expected. Gusty outflow may arrive from the west, however, as the main convective elements diminish just prior to sunrise Sunday. Sunday afternoon will remain hot and humid. While no Heat Advisory is planned, individuals are still urged to exercise their heat safety protocols.

Bain

LONG TERM. /Issued 355 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021/ /Monday Through Friday/

Our 500mb high will retrograde into the Four Corners region, steadily intensifying to near 600dm by the middle of the upcoming week. These mid-level heights could set a new record for a subtropical ridge this far poleward this early in the season. Its axis will knife into southern Canada where the Prairie Provinces may see temperatures close to 100F. The flow above the Lone Star State will reorient to a more northerly direction (with a bit of an easterly component at times). While this would ostensibly cool temperatures and introduce rain chances, the strengthening anticyclone will maintain our mid-level heights. As a result, daytime temperatures will continue to be a few degrees above normal through the middle of the week. Slightly drier trajectories from the east and northeast will help diminish dew points, but reduced wind speeds may actually worsen potential heat stress.

Extended guidance is acknowledging that this subsident atmosphere will likely perpetuate our rain-free period, but isolated afternoon convective initiation will still be possible near our southeast frontier. In addition, the northerly flow may allow nocturnal complexes to invade during the morning hours. Unlike the low-level jet driven systems in recent weeks, unfavorable inflow would require a significant cold pool for any potential intrusions next week. These subtleties are difficult to project at multi- day time scales, and as a result, the forecast will not include any PoPs to address the potential.

When the ridge is near its peak strength, a shortwave will make landfall in the Pacific Northwest and race into the Prairie Provinces. This will deamplify and gradually weaken the high late in the week. While this would not mean a drastic chance to our sensible weather, daytime temperatures will finally moderate, and rain chances will return in time for the weekend.

25

AVIATION. /NEW/ /12 UTC TAF Cycle/

Concerns---MVFR stratus and convective potential.

Convection has rolled southward through North Texas and will impact all D10 TAFs this morning. A temporary wind shift to the north can be expected with gusts. MVFR stratus is likely to impact all terminals though western TAFs (AFW and FTW) may remain largely VFR. By 18 UTC, I do anticipate just about all TAFs to be VFR with southerly flow likely resuming. This morning's rain/storms likely means a lower risk for afternoon convection, but trends will be monitored. Tonight, a complex of storms is expected to approach from the west; however, it does appear unlikely to behave in a similar fashion to this morning's TSRA. Gusty westerly outflow will be possible, and this has been included toward the tail end of D10 TAFs.

Bain

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Dallas-Ft. Worth 93 77 93 76 96 / 60 5 5 5 5 Waco 93 75 94 75 94 / 5 5 5 5 5 Paris 90 75 92 73 92 / 50 10 10 0 0 Denton 92 74 93 72 93 / 90 10 5 5 5 McKinney 91 75 92 73 93 / 80 5 5 5 0 Dallas 94 78 93 77 96 / 60 5 5 5 5 Terrell 91 75 92 74 93 / 50 5 10 5 5 Corsicana 92 75 93 75 94 / 20 5 10 5 5 Temple 93 74 94 73 94 / 5 5 5 10 10 Mineral Wells 94 73 94 72 94 / 40 10 5 5 5

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Terrell, Terrell Municipal Airport, TX16 mi50 minESE 14 G 1910.00 miLight Rain69°F69°F100%1011.1 hPa
Greenville / Majors, TX19 mi68 minSSW 13 G 1710.00 miLight Rain69°F68°F95%1012.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTRL

Wind History from TRL (wind in knots)
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
Last 24hrS12
G18
SW14
G21
S10S12
G22
S15
G22
S12
G19
S16
G22
S12
G23
S11S13S11S6S4CalmCalmE5SE5E4SE5CalmCalmN9NE3SE14
G19
1 day agoS8S11S8S9S11S10S11
G19
S10S12SE7SE7SE5SE5SE4S3S7S7S7S7S7S9S10S8S9
2 days agoSW11
G16
S8S10
G16
S9SW11
G18
S10S11S11S8S7S6SE5SE5S5CalmS4S7S6S8S5S5S6S8S9

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE.