Sunrise 6:40 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 10:07 PM   Moonset 7:06 AM

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FXUS64 KFWD 261951 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 251 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

New Long Term

SHORT TERM
/Issued 1243 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/ /This Afternoon through Saturday Night/

Thunderstorms are ongoing primarily along the I-35 corridor at this hour and will continue to spread east into the afternoon. The environment is quite unstable with steep mid level lapse rates supporting a large hail and damaging wind threat. In addition, low level winds are quite strong, although flow has veered just a bit which may be limiting the tornado potential, particularly with the supercell north of Waco at this time. For the remainder of the afternoon, PoPs will remain highest along and east of I-35 with a continued severe weather threat. There is a low chance that additional storms could redevelop farther west along a dryline, but this potential is generally around 20% at this time. Any additional storms that develop will have a potential to be severe with all modes of severe weather possible.

Coverage of storms should decrease late this evening as the initial shortwave pulls off to the northeast.

Saturday should feature another warm and humid airmass in place across the region, but thunderstorms should hold off for most of the day until another upstream shortwave spreads strong forcing for ascent across a sharp dryline. Thunderstorms should develop by late afternoon/evening off to our northwest and gradually spread across North Texas through the overnight hours into early Sunday morning. Similar to the last few days, all modes of severe weather will be possible, including the potential for a few tornadoes. In addition to the severe threat, slow moving thunderstorms could produce substantial amounts of rain through early Sunday. Isolated totals of 4-6 inches can be expected. A Flood Watch will be issued this afternoon for parts of North Texas. A Wind Advisory will also likely be required for Saturday.

Dunn

LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Sunday Onward/

Lingering convection from Saturday night will likely be ongoing somewhere near the I-35 corridor Sunday morning. Activity will spread slowly east through the eastern half of the region during the day Sunday as the upper low responsible lifts northeast from the plains to the Midwest. The severe threat, though not completely gone, will have lessened with the loss of instability and the exit of the strongest lift. The threat for flooding, however, will still exist even if the severe threat has diminished. A Flood Watch has hence been issued for now through Sunday afternoon for areas along and east of a line from Bowie to Granbury to Waco, where widespread rainfall totals of 1.5 to 3 inches can be expected, along with isolated totals of 3 to 5 inches.

A trailing shortwave will continue to provide enough ascent to keep rain chances going across the far eastern zones into Sunday evening, with rain ending area-wide Sunday night or Monday morning. A lull in rain chances will then occur for the rest of the day Monday as a weak ridge develops aloft, but isolated storms will return on Tuesday and Wednesday as a couple of weak disturbances round the northern flank of the ridge. The Tuesday- Wednesday convection will initiate along the dryline, which will set up just west of the area, with a few severe storms possible each afternoon/evening.

Better thunderstorm chances will arrive on Thursday as an upper trough crosses the central CONUS and a cold front surges south through the forecast area. These storms will exit to the south as the front heads for the Gulf Coast Thursday night. Cooler and drier conditions can then be expected next Friday through the following weekend behind the front.

30

AVIATION
/Issued 1243 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/ /18Z TAFs/

Thunderstorms are moving through the D10 airspace at this time and will gradually spread eastward through the afternoon. Will include a TEMPO for TSRA through 20Z at all Metroplex airports and Waco.
This activity should move east into the afternoon with VFR prevailing. Another round of MVFR will develop after dark tonight and persist through mid-Saturday morning. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Dunn


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 82 65 79 66 / 5 20 90 80 20 Waco 70 81 65 77 66 / 20 20 90 80 30 Paris 68 81 65 74 64 / 10 20 90 90 50 Denton 68 81 62 79 63 / 5 20 100 70 10 McKinney 69 81 65 77 65 / 5 20 90 80 20 Dallas 70 83 65 79 66 / 5 20 90 80 20 Terrell 70 82 67 76 66 / 10 20 90 90 40 Corsicana 72 85 69 79 67 / 20 20 80 80 50 Temple 70 83 67 77 66 / 20 20 90 80 30 Mineral Wells 68 81 60 82 61 / 0 30 90 40 5

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ091>095-102>107- 117>123-131>135-144>146-159.

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