Tuesday, May26, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
West Tawakoni, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 8:26PM Tuesday May 26, 2020 12:34 PM CDT (17:34 UTC) Moonrise 8:33AMMoonset 11:14PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Tawakoni, TX
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location: 32.81, -96     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 261109 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 609 AM CDT Tue May 26 2020

SHORT TERM. /NEW/ Update: No major changes were made to the early morning's forecast. Precipitation chances will linger for areas generally east of I-35 through the rest of the morning as the shortwave makes it's way eastward. Across Central Texas, steep mid-level lapse rates have contributed to the redevelopment of showers and thunderstorm, some of which could skirt our Central Texas counties. No severe weather is expected with any convection today.

Forecast for North Texas remains on track with isolated showers and storms mainly along the Red River, where the best forcing for ascent will be. Did raise expected high temperatures by 2-3 degrees with the latest suite of models suggesting slightly lower cloud cover.

Hernandez

Previous Discussion: /Today & Tonight/

A broken line of storms is now moving into the western portions of North and Central Texas, forming on the southeastward surging outflow boundary. The storms are not expected to be severe given relatively weak environmental deep layer shear. Additionally, much of the instability will remain confined to the Hill Country, therefore, the storms are expected to weaken as they become removed from the higher instability.

Once the storms dissipate, expect the rest of the morning to remain relatively quiet. Can't rule out a few showers late this morning and early afternoon, but coverage is expected to remain minimal. Afternoon heating and increasing large scale ascent as a shortwave moves across the region will increase the potential for isolated storms. Once again, coverage is expected to remain minimal, therefore, most North and Central Texas residents will remain dry. No severe weather is expected today. High temperatures this afternoon are expected to range from the lower to mid 70s.

Tonight, any afternoon precipitation will likely move into East Texas after sunset. There will be another potential for showers and storms to arrive from the northwest after midnight Wednesday morning as another shortwave makes its way into the region. At this time, severe weather appears unlikely through at least sunrise Wednesday.

Hernandez

LONG TERM. /Issued 251 AM CDT Tue May 26 2020/ /Wednesday and Beyond/

A mid/upper low will shift east across the Arklatex region during the day Wednesday before turning more northeastward into Arkansas Wednesday night. Though still a slow-moving system, the latest progs are significantly faster and farther east/northeast compared to what the previous several days of model guidance had advertised. This will have a couple of effects on the local weather across North and Central Texas. One will be an eastward shift in the moisture advection and consequently in the better opportunities for additional widespread wetting rains for Wednesday. Secondly, this pattern places the region beneath a fairly strong northwest flow aloft regime. Recent guidance indicates a shortwave dropping southeast around the western flank of the low Wednesday afternoon and evening, perhaps creating increasing opportunities for convection across parts of the area.

An unstable atmosphere will be in place across the western half of the forecast area at that time as temperatures climb into the mid 80s and MUCAPE exceeds 2000 J/KG. In addition, southeast winds at the surface veering to northwest ~50kt at 8 km yields 50-60 kt of deep layer shear. Any storm which forms should have the ability to maintain updrafts and produce a threat of large hail and damaging winds. At this time, it appears that this potential would initially be highest along and west of I-35, with the strong/severe threat shifting southeast into Central Texas Wednesday evening. Storms should continue to pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds as they move farther south in the evening, and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. The abundance of recent rainfall may also present a potential of additional hydrologic issues. There are no plans of a flood watch at this time, but we will continue to closely monitor the latest trends in guidance and adjust the details of the forecast if it becomes necessary. Either way, storms should continue to push south, eventually exiting the region by midnight Wednesday night.

Another shortwave is progged to drop south again on Thursday, though this one is advertised to occur farther west over the Big Country and West Texas. That said, it will be accompanied by a weak cold front, which should provide focus for at least isolated convection across the region Thursday into Thursday night.

With the faster departure of the upper level system to our east, a general reduction of POPs and increase in temperatures will characterize the extended portion of this forecast package. The majority of the latest model guidance indicates an unseasonably amplified ridge dominating the Plains beyond the 120 hour mark, which means a return to near-normal temperatures by the weekend, followed by above-normal readings as we get into next week.

30

AVIATION. /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/

A few remnant showers remain just southeast of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex as a shortwave slowly progresses to the east/northeast. Much of the rainfall this morning is expected to dissipate by around sunrise. With plenty of wrap-around moisture around the cyclonic mid and low-level circulation, there will be a potential for MVFR to make an appearance for a few hours this morning. MVFR will gradually move eastward later this morning, leaving behind VFR for the rest of the forecast period.

Afternoon destabilization will likely lead to a few showers and isolated storms generally north of I-20. Cant rule out a storm approaching the North Texas TAF sites, therefore, will reintroduce VCTS after 18Z. By sunset, storms will likely be winding down with the loss of daytime heating.

Another shortwave will be approaching the region late tonight into early Wednesday morning. This shortwave will increase the threat of showers and storms across the region, especially Wednesday afternoon. The highest storm chances are just outside the scope of this forecast cycle, therefore, subsequent issuances will handle the timing of any potential precipitation on Wednesday.

Hernandez

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 63 82 64 83 / 20 10 40 40 30 Waco 76 61 85 63 86 / 30 5 30 40 20 Paris 74 63 76 61 78 / 40 10 60 50 50 Denton 73 61 81 62 83 / 20 10 50 40 30 McKinney 73 62 80 63 81 / 20 10 50 40 30 Dallas 74 64 83 65 84 / 20 10 40 40 30 Terrell 74 61 80 63 82 / 20 10 40 40 40 Corsicana 74 61 82 64 83 / 30 10 30 40 30 Temple 76 60 85 64 86 / 40 0 20 30 20 Mineral Wells 74 59 83 60 83 / 20 20 40 30 30

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Terrell, Terrell Municipal Airport, TX16 mi41 minW 710.00 miOvercast71°F60°F68%1013.1 hPa
Greenville / Majors, TX19 mi64 minWNW 610.00 miOvercast70°F62°F78%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTRL

Wind History from TRL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10NW8NW14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.