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FXUS64 KFWD 042256 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 556 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Through Thursday Evening/

This evening's convective event is underway with scattered to numerous thunderstorms ongoing along the Red River. This activity is in the process of growing upscale and is expected to push south as a linear MCS this evening and overnight. Severe thunderstorms will be possible, particularly over the next few hours along and north of the I-20 corridor, when the best instability will be in place. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for areas roughly along and north of Highway 380 through 10 PM, and it wouldn't be too surprising if an additional watch were issued south of the current one as storms push south. One limiting factor at the moment is that it appears that outflow has largely undercut the storms, but new development along the gust front will still have the potential to go severe. Damaging winds and large hail will both be possible, with severe probabilities siding more with damaging winds the farther south the line of storms progresses.
The severe threat will not go away, but should decrease with time as storms push south through Central Texas during the overnight hours.

The latest timing based on recent CAMs brings these storms through the Highway 380 corridor 7 to 9 PM, the I-20 corridor 9 PM to midnight and accelerating south into Central Texas midnight through 3 AM as the cold pool matures. Heavy rain and flooding remains a concern, mainly along and north of I-20 where the slowest southward storm progression is expected. West-to-east training of cells will be the areas to focus on for the highest flash flooding potential. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the northeast-most counties where the highest rainfall totals are expected and where the wettest soils exist. Storm total precipitation of 3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts is a good possibility within the watch, with generally lesser amounts the farther southwest you go (the exception being where any training storms may occur).

Storms will push south of the forecast area Thursday morning as the upper trough responsible for the convection sweeps southeast through the region. A cold front will follow soon after, bringing much more seasonable weather to the area on Thursday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A pleasant Thursday evening can also be expected with temperatures falling into the 60s under clearing skies.

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LONG TERM
/Issued 238 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023/ /Thursday Evening through Wednesday/

Rainfall will have exited the area by the beginning of the long- term period. Cooler weather is expected on Friday with highs generally in the low 80s. A second stronger front will push through Friday night helping to drop temperatures into the 50s and even some 40s closer to the Red River by Saturday morning. Despite abundant sunshine on Saturday, highs will only be in the low 70s.
Much of the area will see lows Sunday morning in the 40s with highs again on Sunday generally in the 70s. Certainly has been a long time coming, but it will finally feel like fall across north Texas. Northwest flow will prevail into next week, but returning south winds will help warm temperatures back above normal by early next week, though with dry air in place comfortable conditions will continue.

AVIATION
/NEW/ /00Z TAFs/

Convection currently organizing along the Red River should push through the DFW Metroplex 01-05Z and through Waco 04-08Z. Strong north winds will likely accompany these storms with gusts of 35+ kt possible. Winds may briefly become light and variable in the wake of the TS, but should return to the north by 12Z as a cold front pushes through the region. MVFR ceilings are likely 12-18Z Thursday behind the front, followed by VFR thereafter.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 69 83 64 83 55 / 100 20 5 0 0 Waco 69 82 65 82 55 / 90 50 10 5 0 Paris 67 79 60 80 49 / 100 30 5 0 0 Denton 66 81 59 82 50 / 100 20 5 0 0 McKinney 67 80 59 81 50 / 100 20 5 0 0 Dallas 70 83 64 83 55 / 100 30 5 0 0 Terrell 67 81 62 81 51 / 100 40 5 0 0 Corsicana 71 82 66 82 55 / 90 50 10 5 0 Temple 69 83 64 84 55 / 90 70 10 5 0 Mineral Wells 67 83 59 85 51 / 100 20 5 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ094-095-105>107-123.

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