Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Tawakoni, TX

SHORT TERM
(Today and Wednesday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

The rest of this morning will be cloudy and breezy as winds remain elevated and a slug of low-level stratus blankets much of North and Central Texas by daybreak. We'll remain dry going into the early afternoon as lift from our incoming shortwave remains a bit further west. Like yesterday, scattered showers and storms are expected to develop along a dryline draped from the Panhandles down into the Permian Basin in the afternoon in response to upper- level lift spreading into the region, and will spread east through the evening.

Latest thinking is that this activity will not reach our northwest and Big Country counties really until the early evening, with scattered storms impacting areas mainly west of the I-35 corridor this evening. With lapse rates near 7.5-8 degC/km, deep layer shear > 40 KT, and plenty of instability, any storm that moves into our area will have a primary threat of large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat will be non-zero, and may become slightly increased later in the evening as the low-level jet picks up and increases the 0-1 km wind shear and SRH.
Additional dryline-induced showers and storms may move in from the southwest overnight into Wednesday morning, but the severe risk with these would decrease the further they get into Central and North Texas due to increasing inhibition.

Wednesday afternoon's storm chances remain conditional on just how much activity we observe during the morning. If we see enough in the morning, the atmosphere may be worked over enough to prohibit much additional development in the afternoon, which is what the majority of CAMs are currently outputting. However if there is not much morning convection, then the afternoon environment would be primed for the development of scattered storms as the upper-level shortwave moves across the Plains. Lapse rates ~ 7 degC/km and efficient instability and deep layer shear would promote the potential for some severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds. With uncertainty on the coverage of storms in both the afternoon and evening hours on Wednesday, have lowered forecast PoPs from the NBM.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

An overall lull in precipitation is expected most of the day Thursday as upper-level ridging moves into the region in between shortwave troughs. With the dryline remaining to our west, afternoon high temperatures will still peak mainly in the 80s across the region. However, isolated showers and storms may occur in North Texas near the Red River on Friday as the ridge gets shoved to the east ahead of our next shortwave. Lee-side troughing out ahead of the incoming shortwave will tighten the pressure gradient, resulting in wind gusts to around 25-30 mph on Friday.
The deepening shortwave is expected to cross the Continental Divide Friday into Saturday, shunting the attendant cold front south through the Plains. This front will quickly overtake our resident dryline, moving through North and Central Texas early in the day Saturday. Showers and storms are expected to develop near and along the front as it advances through the region, though severe weather is not anticipated with this activity at this time.
Behind the front, expect cooler conditions going into next week with highs in the 60s and 70s both Sunday and Monday. Another chance for precipitation may be possible next Monday as quick moisture return over the cooler post-frontal airmass promotes overrunning precipitation.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

MVFR cigs continue to blanket the TAF sites, and will persist before gradually lifting back to VFR over early-mid afternoon.
There continues to be low potential for warm sector showers and storms this afternoon ahead of the dryline, but coverage and location remains uncertain enough to forego inclusion in the 12Z TAFs. We will continue to keep an eye on this potential for future amendments.

Overnight, expect another round of MVFR stratus to impact the airports. Additional showers and storms may move SW to NE overnight into Wednesday morning, but there continues to be discord among guidance and enough uncertainty on the coverage of morning development to not add in VCTS/VCSH with this issuance.
Otherwise, breezy southerly winds with occasional higher gusts are expected to continue through the TAF period.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 67 79 66 / 20 50 40 40 Waco 82 67 80 66 / 10 20 40 40 Paris 82 65 79 65 / 10 20 40 40 Denton 82 65 78 64 / 20 50 40 40 McKinney 82 67 78 66 / 10 40 40 40 Dallas 84 67 80 66 / 10 40 40 40 Terrell 82 67 81 66 / 10 20 40 40 Corsicana 84 68 84 69 / 10 10 40 40 Temple 83 67 82 66 / 10 10 40 40 Mineral Wells 83 65 79 63 / 40 50 50 20

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.