NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS64 KFWD 012339 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 539 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Tonight through Saturday Night/

Weak surface high pressure has settled in across the Southern Plains behind a cold front that moved through overnight, but broad upper troughing remains in place over the western CONUS. This will help continue to send a stream of high clouds across parts of the region through Saturday. For the remainder of tonight, light north winds will prevail and will likely become calm during the overnight. Residual moisture may result in some patchy dense fog across the region, but high clouds may disrupt this process in some locations. We'll continue to monitor through the late evening, but as of right now, it doesn't look like it will be as widespread as yesterday evening.

On Saturday, a strong shortwave will swing through the Plains with the tail end of this feature moving across northwest Texas.
Strong forcing for ascent will overspread North Texas by late morning into the early afternoon and we should see a few scattered showers develop. Most of the precipitation will evaporate before hitting the ground, resulting in mainly virga or sprinkles.
However, given the strength of the forcing and modest mid level lapse rates, we could see a few showers and perhaps even a lightning strike within the realm of possibility. Chances of this are only about 10%. Otherwise, most areas will see passing mid level cloud cover through early afternoon. Another weak Pacific front will move through late in the day with increasing west winds and drier air. Highs will top out in the lower 70s.

Dunn

LONG TERM
/Issued 307 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023/ /Saturday Night Through Late Next Week/

Quiet weather will prevail through the upcoming week, despite the passage of a couple upper level systems and weak cold fronts. A dryline will mix west on Sunday, resulting in another warmer and breezy afternoon. Compressional warming will push temperatures into the low 70s generally west of I-35, with highs in the mid to upper 60s expected elsewhere. As a consequence of the breezy winds and low relative humidity (near 20-30%), an elevated to near- critical fire weather threat will unfold along and west of I-35 during the afternoon hours.

Sunday night, a weak cold front will be ushered through North and Central Texas. Moisture will still be scoured from the region, which will keep frontal passage rain-free. The only noticeable change behind the front will be a subtle northerly wind shift and slightly cooler temperatures Monday afternoon. Highs should remain in the low to mid 60s across the region.

A gradual warming trend will commence Tuesday and continue through late next week, but another weak cold front will briefly interrupt the warm-up on Wednesday. By Thursday and Friday, south winds will bring a plume of Gulf moisture back into North and Central Texas, with temperatures trending 10-20 degrees above normal as afternoon highs climb into the 70s. This will set the stage ahead of our next storm system that looks to arrive sometime late next weekend.

Barnes

AVIATION
/NEW/ /00Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail with light north winds through the late evening.
Winds will become more southerly then westerly by late Saturday with VFR generally prevailing.

The only concerns right now are the potential for some patchy dense fog tonight across parts of the D10 airspace through early Saturday morning. We'll monitor this through the evening.

There will also be a very low potential for some elevated showers northwest of the DFW area late Saturday morning into midday.

Dunn

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 41 68 43 69 42 / 0 5 0 0 0 Waco 41 70 42 70 42 / 0 5 0 0 0 Paris 38 61 37 64 38 / 0 5 0 0 0 Denton 39 68 37 68 36 / 0 5 0 0 0 McKinney 39 65 38 67 38 / 0 5 0 0 0 Dallas 42 67 42 69 42 / 0 5 0 0 0 Terrell 40 64 39 67 39 / 0 5 0 0 0 Corsicana 43 68 43 69 43 / 0 5 0 0 0 Temple 41 72 41 72 41 / 0 5 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 39 71 39 72 38 / 0 5 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Dallas/Fort Worth, TX,