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FXUS64 KFWD 101137 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 537 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update:

Temperatures have fallen into the 30s for most of the area with a couple hours of cooling remaining. 10-15 mph winds are making it feel even cooler with wind chill values several degrees below the ambient temperature. Be sure plan accordingly if you are heading out this morning. Otherwise, the forecast below remains on track after updating it with the latest data.

Bonnette

Previous Discussion: /Sunday and Monday/

High pressure continues to build into the Southern Plains behind yesterday's cold front. The apex of a narrow upper trough will swing across the region overnight, with a high pressure center emerging out of Big Bend early this morning. While cold advection has weakened compared to earlier, north winds will continue to bring cooler air into the region overnight. Most of western North and Central Texas, as well as those along the Red River, should experience a light freeze early Sunday morning. Since the winds will still be slightly elevated, wind chills are projected to be in the 20s early this morning.

Today will be sunny and cool with highs in the 50s areawide. A surface ridge will move across the region from west to east late this afternoon and tonight. As it does so, the winds will weaken then shift out of the south a few hours later. Light winds, clear skies, and dry air should promote efficient radiational cooling across the eastern half of the forecast area tonight, resulting in a widespread freeze east of I-35/35E. A few locations further west will also experience a light freeze, but south flow overnight will keep most from falling much lower than 34-36 degrees. Monday will be another mostly sunny day, but south flow will help nudge temperatures up 5-10 degrees higher than Sunday's values.

Bonnette

LONG TERM
/Issued 230 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023/ /Tuesday through Saturday/

Next week's weather will become increasingly dominated by a compact upper level low which will drop southeastward out of the Intermountain West into South Texas by next Saturday. The latest available GFS and ECMWF ensemble solutions have come into better agreement with the evolution of this system, with the great bulk of the precipitation expected to remain west and south of our forecast area through the extended period.

Mid and high level clouds will begin spreading across the region on Tuesday in advance of this approaching upper low, leading to filtered sunshine in most areas by afternoon. Low level thermal and moisture advection will increase later Tuesday into Wednesday, with additional low level cloudiness advecting into the region from the south. Moisture and synoptic-scale forcing for ascent will be sufficient to warrant low end PoPs across the western zones Wednesday and Thursday, with this precipitation predominately taking the form of patchy light rain and scattered rain showers.

As the upper level low exits the Southern Rockies and approaches the lower Rio Grande Valley on Friday, large-scale lift will be sufficient across our southwest and southern counties to warrant 50-60% PoPs, tapering to low chance categories further north. Instability will be minimal to non-existent across our area, resulting in an absence of thunderstorms and a continuation of patchy rain/showery conditions. While it's still early to pin down rainfall amounts precisely, storm totals should remain pretty modest - generally on the order of 0.5"-1.5" in the far southwest counties, tapering to less than 0.5" north of I-20.

Relatively mild southeasterly surface winds, coupled with partial sunshine, should enable daytime temperatures to rise into the 60s areawide on Tuesday. By Wednesday, the combination of cloud cover and scattered precipitation will limit afternoon highs to the 50s and a few lower 60s. A further retrenchment in temperatures will occur by late week into Saturday as precipitation increases in coverage and a cool east to northeast surface flow regime becomes established across the region on the north flank of the approaching upper low.

Bradshaw

AVIATION
/NEW/ /12Z TAFs/

VFR and north flow will prevail for much of the day. Wind speeds will weaken late in the afternoon, then shift to become out of the south-southwest around 00Z.

The main impact to aviators this morning will be moderate to occasionally severe turbulence between 150-FL250 due to a fold in the jetstream. This is generally expected east of D10 and should move east of the FWD/ZFW airspace by mid-morning.

Bonnette


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 54 35 62 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 54 30 62 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 51 31 59 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 54 27 61 36 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 53 29 61 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 54 36 62 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 53 29 61 36 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 55 32 62 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 56 29 63 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 56 31 65 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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