Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Travis Ranch, TX

SHORT TERM
/Issued 1228 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2024/ /Through Tuesday/

Surface cyclogenesis is underway across the Panhandle and Northwest Texas which is resulting in southerly flow and modest warm/moist advection at the surface locally. This is contributing to the maintenance of a low stratus deck anchored across East Texas, and many of these areas will remain socked in with clouds through the early morning hours. Farther north in Oklahoma, surface winds are backed to easterly which will support more widespread fog development. At this time, the dense fog potential for the rest of the morning is expected to largely remain north of the TX/OK border, although patchier radiation fog is possible in parts of North Texas where there are clearing skies and light winds.

As the aforementioned surface low drifts eastward through the CWA later today, it will pull a cold front southeastward through the entire area during the afternoon and evening. This boundary's passage will initially be subtle without a well-defined wind shift or baroclinic zone, but its effects will be quite noticeable during the following 24 hours. Post-frontal stratus will overspread the area from north to south this evening and overnight, while northwesterly surface wind speeds increase to 10-20 mph. While this front is largely expected to come through dry, cannot completely discount the potential for some patchy drizzle to occur across our Texoma counties. Cold advection heading into Tuesday will lead to a much cooler day compared to Monday, with highs in the mid 40s in North Texas to mid 50s in Central Texas. Breezy winds and limited insolation due to the presence of a secondary mid cloud deck will make for a chilly day, with wind chill values holding in the 40s for most of North Texas during a majority of the daytime.

-Stalley

LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Tuesday Night Onward/

Gusty north winds will weaken Tuesday night due to the combination of a relaxing pressure gradient and decoupling of low level flow. Wind speeds of 5 to 10 MPH will not deliver the most ideal radiative cooling conditions, but clear skies and a dry airmass will allow temperatures to fall below freezing across a good portion of the region. The current forecast will keep Tuesday night/Wednesday morning lows ranging from the upper 20s in rural areas to the lower and mid 30s in the urban locations.

Winds will back further to the southwest on Wednesday as the post-frontal surface ridge slides south through the Rio Grande Valley. The southwest winds will coincide with a developing ridge aloft, beginning a warm-up for the mid to late week period. Will go warmer than the NBM numbers for Wednesday temperatures based on trends in operational deterministic guidance, with highs ranging from the mid 50s near Paris to the mid 60s in western Central Texas. Dry air and light winds will lead to another chilly night Wednesday night, but temperatures will be a touch above Tuesday night's readings with lows in the 30s area-wide.

Winds will turn to the south and increase in speed on Thursday as a lee-side trough strengthens in advance of a shortwave trough entering California. Warm air advection will push temperatures well into the 60s both Thursday and Friday for afternoon highs.
Gulf moisture will stream northward through the region as the shortwave draws near, but the fast eastward motion of the system will limit moisture return and overall rain chances. Areas along and east of I-35 will likely see a brief round of rain showers Friday night as the shortwave sweeps across the Southern Plains, but areas west of I-35 may miss out. All activity will exit to the east along with an attendant Pacific front Saturday morning.

A brief respite from rain chances will take place Saturday through Saturday night, followed by another round of showers Sunday through next Monday as another shortwave trough races through the Plains. The upper level pattern will remain unsettled, with additional chances for rain arriving by the middle of next week.

30

AVIATION
/Issued 1228 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2024/ /06z TAFs/

The D10 TAF sites are situated immediately on the western edge of a LIFR stratus deck as of 06z. While VFR currently prevails, it is possible that is cloud bank builds slightly westward during the early morning hours, resulting in a period of IFR/LIFR conditions at the eastern Metroplex sites of DAL, DFW, and GKY. For now, will maintain VFR conditions in the TAF until any indication of a westward stratus expansion is observed. Even if this deck does remain east, some minor visibility reductions are possible early this morning due to mist. Otherwise, expect a frontal passage at all TAF sites later this afternoon, which will be accompanied by post-frontal stratus at MVFR heights this evening and tonight.
Winds will gradually turn to westerly and then northwesterly over the course of a few hours with this boudnary's passage.

-Stalley


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 43 48 33 61 / 0 5 0 0 0 Waco 77 45 53 32 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 64 42 47 30 55 / 5 5 5 0 0 Denton 65 39 47 31 60 / 5 5 0 0 0 McKinney 66 41 48 32 58 / 5 5 0 0 0 Dallas 69 43 49 34 62 / 0 5 0 0 0 Terrell 69 42 49 30 58 / 0 5 0 0 0 Corsicana 72 46 53 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 78 42 53 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 65 39 48 29 63 / 5 5 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.