Sunrise 6:52 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 1:29 PM   Moonset 2:55 AM

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FXUS64 KFWD 172350 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 650 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

New Aviation, Short Term

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update:

The only change to the public forecast is the addition of patchy fog across portions of North and Central Texas through sunrise tomorrow morning thanks to abundant surface moisture currently in place. Temperatures will gradually fall into the upper 60s and low 70s across the region through the overnight hours into tomorrow morning. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will return through tomorrow afternoon as an approaching cold front from the north sweeps through the region. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible along this frontal boundary as it pushes south, with large hail and damaging winds as the main threats. Northerly winds will allow temperatures to cool into the low to mid 50s across North Texas through Friday morning.

Reeves

Previous Discussion: /Through Tomorrow Night/

Weather Highlights: -Isolated storms this afternoon -Severe storms Tomorrow Afternoon

Rest of This Afternoon & Tonight:

A warm and muggy day will continue through the rest of today thanks to the persistent southerly flow across the region.
Yesterday's front has retreated westward, and has stalled just west of our region. This boundary will act much like a dryline this afternoon with significantly drier air west of the dryline and moist conditions to the east.

Although no major forcing for ascent will be atop our region, diurnally driven convection may develop this afternoon across the Big Country. If they do develop, storm motion would take it to the east/northeast into our western-most counties. For that reason, we'll continue to advertise a minimal potential for a thunderstorm or two. Any strong convection will likely occur just west of our region with a weakening trend expected as storms shift east, away from the boundary. Storm chances will quickly dissipate after sunset as atmospheric stability sets in.

Tonight will be fairly quiet across the region with partly cloudy skies in place. Given the moist environment, temperatures will likely stay in the upper 60s to lower 70s through the night.

Tomorrow - Tomorrow Night:

A more active weather day is expected on Thursday as the pseudo- dryline and a cold front converge atop our region. Throughout the morning hours, the cold front will be progressing southward into our region, remaining precipitation free. During the afternoon, sufficient daytime heating is expected for convection to develop.
Given the warm surface temperatures, instability will build to 3000+ J/kg, increasing the threat for severe thunderstorm development. Severe storms would mainly contain a large hail and damaging wind threat as they progress east/southeast along the cold front. With instability waning after sunset, thunderstorms will gradually lose strength later in the afternoon/early evening.

Northerly winds will ensue behind the front, remaining below 15 mph through the rest of the night. This will help cool overnight temperatures into the lower to mid 50s along and north of I-20.
60s are most likely south of I-20.

Hernandez

LONG TERM
/Issued 300 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ /Friday Through Mid Next Week/

By daybreak Friday, the aforementioned cold front is expected to be slowly drifting or stalled near or just north of the Hill Country as it becomes oriented parallel to the upper-level flow.
Moisture advection overtop of the shallow frontal surface should quickly yield widespread dense cloud cover early Friday. By the afternoon, an approaching weak shortwave trough embedded within the zonal flow aloft...in combination with the established isentropic ascent regime...will lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in the vicinity of the 850mb front, which is expected to still be draped across North Texas (near the Red River). Rain/thunderstorm chances will increase Friday night in response to increasing large scale lift associated with another weak shortwave shifting across Central/South Texas.

While buoyancy will be somewhat limited, there should be sufficient elevated instability for convective elements/embedded thunderstorms capable of producing small hail late Friday into early Saturday. With PWAT values near or exceeding the 90th percentile of the daily climatological mean, locally heavy rainfall may lead to flooding impacts on Saturday, especially wherever higher convective rain rates materialize. The prevailing drought and drier antecedent conditions in the southwest portions of our forecast area will likely limit most flood concerns in this area. However, ponding or minor nuisance flooding cannot be completely ruled out. Conversely, given the degree of soil saturation in areas east of the I-35 corridor and current reservoir conditions, rapid surface runoff and minor river flooding issues are likely to emerge this weekend. In general, 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rainfall is expected with isolated higher totals possible. There is a 30-40% chance that total accumulated rainfall exceeds 3 inches in a few different areas across North and Central Texas.

Increasing subsidence in the wake of the departing shortwave should bring an end to rain chances by Sunday afternoon with drier conditions prevailing through early next week. In contrast to the unseasonably hot temperatures in the short term period, temperatures will fall from near/slightly below normal to as much as 15-20 degrees cooler than 1991-2020 averages by Sunday. This is due to weak cold air advection behind the cold front in combination with rain chances and extensive cloud cover. The surface high will shift east over the Lower Mississippi Valley Monday, allowing for onshore flow to return. The return of southerly winds and ample sunshine early next week will lead to a quick warm up with highs back into the 70s and lower 80s by Tuesday.

12

AVIATION
/NEW/ /00z TAFs/

Concerns...MVFR Ceilings/Storm Potential Into Tomorrow Afternoon.

VFR conditions will continue through much the evening before ceilings gradually fall to MVFR through tomorrow morning starting across Waco, reaching the D10 terminals a few hours later.
Guidance continues to keep ceilings within the MVFR category, but there is a low chance (~10%) for a few locations to fall to IFR.

A cold front will be pushing through the region tomorrow afternoon, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing along the leading edge. These storms shouldn't linger too long and should clear the D10 terminals by around 01-02z. Gusty outflow winds will be possible out ahead of this front, with winds remaining from the north/northeast through tomorrow evening.

Reeves


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 88 59 73 60 / 5 40 30 10 60 Waco 71 86 63 76 65 / 5 40 30 10 30 Paris 67 83 57 69 55 / 5 40 50 20 60 Denton 68 87 55 70 56 / 0 30 20 10 70 McKinney 69 86 57 71 58 / 5 40 30 20 70 Dallas 71 89 60 73 62 / 5 40 30 10 60 Terrell 68 85 60 74 61 / 5 40 40 10 50 Corsicana 70 86 64 79 65 / 5 30 30 10 40 Temple 70 86 63 79 64 / 5 30 30 10 30 Mineral Wells 68 89 55 71 58 / 5 30 20 10 70

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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