Sunrise 6:21 AM   Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 5:54 PM   Moonset 3:58 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

FXUS64 KFWD 211058 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 558 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

New Aviation, Short Term

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update: Only minor edits were made to the morning forecast package.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop (~20% chance) late this afternoon along a dryline across western North Texas and shift east toward the I-35 corridor this evening. If storms do develop, they would offer a large hail and damaging wind threat. MOST locations will remain dry! The time to watch for storms will be roughly 4pm-9pm this evening. Again, if storms do develop, they should start to take on a weakening trend as they push toward and past the I-35 corridor late this evening into the early overnight.

Langfeld

Previous Discussion: /Through Tuesday Night/

The remainder of the night will feature dry and quiet conditions as the overhead mid-level ridge exits to the east. Broad troughing will dig over the western CONUS setting the stage for a few active weather days during the midweek period. Increasing moisture along southerly low-level flow will draw stratus northward over North and Central Texas before sunrise Tuesday morning, lifting and scattering by midday Tuesday. Expect warm and humid conditions with temperatures starting in the mid-70s for the Tuesday morning commute. By Tuesday afternoon, temperatures will rise into the upper 80s to low 90s across much of the region (potentially mid-90s across the Big Country). Abundant moisture marked by surface dewpoints in the low to mid-70s will produce heat index values in the 95-100 degree range.

A conditional setup for isolated severe thunderstorms will exist across our western zones late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. The greater synoptic-scale ascent will remain far displaced to the north ahead of a mid-level shortwave passing over northern Oklahoma/Kansas. However, daytime heating and surface convergence along a dryline may offer enough support to get a few isolated thunderstorms going along the dryline as the cap weakens by 4-5pm Tuesday evening (~20% chance of this occurring). This dryline will likely be positioned from Bowie-Jacksboro-Cisco during the time of potential convective initiation. The environment will support severe weather if thunderstorms do develop with primarily a large hail and damaging wind threat. The loss of daytime heating and increasing SBCIN will allow storms to weaken as they shift east through the evening and early overnight, likely dissipating as they approach the I-35/35W corridor.

The remainder of Tuesday night will feature warm, humid conditions with another surge of low-level stratus ahead of a cold front that will bring the potential for more widespread severe weather Wednesday.

Langfeld

LONG TERM
/Issued 240 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024/ /Wednesday Onward/

A cold front will sag south into North Texas on Wednesday as a shortwave sweeps across the Plains. A few storm clusters may be ongoing around daybreak Wednesday as the front crosses the Red River, with activity dissipating mid to late morning as the low level jet mixes out. The front will likely stall somewhere between I-20 and the Red River, providing focus for thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon as the right entrance region of a 90kt jet approaches from the west. Strong flow aloft (and the resulting deep layer shear) combined with good instability will lead to some of these storm becoming severe with large hail and damaging winds both possible. The presence of the surface front may also enhance the tornado threat at times, though a persistent warm layer at 850 to 700mb will hopefully mitigate tornado development.

Thunderstorms (some severe) will continue into Wednesday evening, with the best storm chances being along and north of I-20 near the surface front. PWats near 2 inches will also allow for locally heavy rain in thunderstorms, and flooding may become an issue where any training convection may occur. Storms will begin to wind down around midnight Wednesday night, with activity eventually dissipating during the overnight hours.

Thunderstorms will redevelop on Thursday as a shortwave trough passes overhead, with the surface boundary (along with other possible mesoscale boundaries from Wednesday convection) providing a focus for development. Shear and instability will be more than sufficient for severe thunderstorms, with large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes possible. Some deterministic guidance in fact indicates a higher tornado threat for Thursday, but I would like to see better resolution guidance in the form of convection allowing models (which will arrive later today through Wednesday) before ramping up the tornado messaging. The persistent warm layer could also work against tornado development.
In any case storms will continue into Thursday evening, with the best rain chances again being along and north of I-20 near the surface boundary. That being said, any southward shift in the front itself or in any mesoscale boundary could shift the better storm chances southward into Central Texas.

Activity will dissipate overnight Thursday night, giving way to a hot and humid Friday. Dewpoints in the lower 70s and highs in the lower to middle 90s will yield 100+ degree heat indices Friday afternoon, with the front having lifted well north of the Red River by then. The heat will continue through the weekend, with parts of Central Texas possibly reaching Heat Advisory criteria on Saturday.

There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms Friday and Saturday afternoons associated with the dryline. Though storm coverage may remain isolated, each storm which manages to develop would likely become severe. A deepening low over the Great Lakes will send a cold front southward into the region once again on Monday, providing some relief from the heat along with a slight chance of storms for Memorial Day. At this time, it looks like the front will push through the entire region, leading to warm but drier weather next Tuesday through the midweek period of next week.

30

AVIATION
/NEW/ /12Z TAFs/

Widespread MVFR stratus currently overspreads much of North and Central Texas. We should start to see cig improvements later this morning, transitioning to VFR status by 16Z-17Z. South flow at 12-16 kts with occasional gusts to 20-25 kts is expected through much of today.

There is potential for isolated thunderstorms to develop along a dryline across western North Texas later this afternoon and evening. If storms do develop, they will likely become severe and would push toward the I-35 corridor in the 00Z-03Z timeframe. The latest runs of some high-resolution guidance have been hinting at thunderstorm activity in the vicinity of the D10 terminals later this evening. However, with a conditional setup for storms to even develop, coverage expected to remain quite limited if storms do develop, and uncertainty in how far east storms maintain, we will hold off on a VCTS addition in the TAFs for now. We will continue to monitor this potential through the day, and a VCTS addition may be needed if high-resolution guidance and trends increase confidence in impacts to terminals later this evening.

Langfeld


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 76 89 74 86 / 10 20 60 40 50 Waco 89 76 89 74 88 / 10 10 20 20 40 Paris 88 73 87 70 84 / 20 20 60 60 50 Denton 90 74 88 72 85 / 20 20 60 50 60 McKinney 89 75 88 72 84 / 10 20 60 50 50 Dallas 91 76 90 74 87 / 10 20 60 40 50 Terrell 89 75 88 72 86 / 10 10 50 40 50 Corsicana 91 76 90 75 89 / 10 10 20 20 40 Temple 90 75 89 74 89 / 5 10 10 10 30 Mineral Wells 92 74 88 71 86 / 20 20 50 40 50

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Dallas/Fort Worth, TX,