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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 611 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
.dense fog advisory in effect until 7 am est Sunday...
Tonight..S winds 5 kt, becoming sw late. Showers likely, mainly this evening. Areas of dense fog.
Sun..SW winds 10 kt. Areas of fog in the morning. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Sun night..W winds 5 kt. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt.
Wed..NW winds 15 kt.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt.
Thu night..W winds 5 kt.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less.
charleston harbor water temperature 59 degrees.

AMZ300 611 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A warm front will lift up through the region tonight, followed by a cold front passing through later Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. This will maintain unsettled weather across the region through Sunday. High pressure will then prevail through much of next week.

FXUS62 KCHS 022351 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 651 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will lift up through the region tonight, followed by a cold front passing through later Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. This will maintain unsettled weather across the region through Sunday. High pressure will then prevail through much of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
Latest SPC mesoanalysis indicated little to no SBCAPE across the forecast area. Latest high resolution guidance indicate that convection will push off the south GA coast, expected to remain south of the forecast area. The updated forecast will have the mention of thunderstorms removed. The larger issue will be the possible stratus build-down and fog. Based on the latest images from coastal web cameras, areas of dense fog has been added along the SE GA/SC coast and adjacent waters. It is possible that patchy fog will develop inland. Late afternoon temperatures ranged in the upper 60s. Under steady south winds and thick low clouds, temperatures should remain generally steady through the night, cooling by only 3-4 degrees.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
Larger scale troughiness will be in place across central NOAM to start the short term, bounded by ridging along either coast, and a couple of stout short-waves pinwheeling around the trough across the Midwest and Ohio River Valley. At the surface, low pressure in the Gulf today will be ejecting quickly northeastward through the mid Atlantic and into New England on Sunday, ahead of the larger scale trough. Strong southwesterly flow ahead of the low will drive an unseasonal warm and moist airmass into the region late tonight through Sunday, with PWAT values nearing 2 inches which, if verified, would be a daily max for Dec 3 per SPC sounding climatology.

Surface cold front will follow, pressing through the region later Sunday and Sunday night with cooler and drier air spreading back into the region to start the work week.

Precip chances remain the primary forecast challenge through Sunday night.

Sunday/Sunday night: As mentioned, a very pronounced and moist warm sector will be in place on Sunday pushing temperatures into the mid to upper 70s along with a touch of mugginess. Main question revolves around precip chances. Once the warm sector arrives, isentropic ascent will weaken considerably on Sunday. But given the very strong upper axis to our northwest, there will be some upper jet forcing support across the region along with modest low level convergence and a degree of instability (a few to several hundred J/Kg of MUCAPE) ahead of the approaching boundary. Plan is to maintain chancy pops throughout the day along with a mention of thunder.
Precip chances diminish and move off the coast Sunday evening.

Rest of the short term: Another strong short-wave will be swinging across the Ohio Valley to off the mid Atlantic coast on Monday, although strongest forcing and better moisture remains well to our north. Thus, keeping the forecast dry. Meanwhile, progressively cooler temperatures are anticipated through the first half of the week. Highs in the middle 60s to around 70 on Monday and down into the lower 60s on Tuesday. Lows in the upper 30s to middle 40s both nights.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Last in the series of short-wave impulses is expected to dive down through the mid Atlantic and southeast CONUS midweek followed by short-wave ridging building through the region for the balance of the long term forecast. Once again, bulk of moisture and forcing remains well to our north on Wednesday and we will keep the forecast dry at this juncture. But with the trough, a couple day stretch of cool temperatures is anticipated with highs mainly in the 50s (well below normal) and chilly overnight temperatures through Thursday morning. Warmer air presses back into the region Friday and into next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Prior to the 0Z TAFs: KCHS and KJZI were observing LIFR ceilings and varying visibility due to fog and drizzle. KSAV was observing MVFR ceilings with light rain. KCLX detected a broad area of light returns across SE GA, drifting to the north. Light rainfall should remain over the KSAV terminal through this evening into the late night hours. At KCHS and KJZI, conditions will likely fluctuate through the night, ranging from LIFR to the upper bounds of IFR through the night. Southwest winds should gradually strengthen ahead of an approach cold front early Sunday morning, reaching between 10-15 kts by mid-morning.
Given increasing mixing, conditions should improve to MVFR by mid to late morning. The cold front is timed to near the terminals by the end of the TAF period, possibly yielding occasional gusts around 20 kts and VFR conditions.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions in low clouds and showers will likely persist through Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, before conditions trend back to VFR later Sunday night and into Monday. Then, overall VFR conditions will prevail through the first half of next week.

MARINE
Tonight: Late tonight winds should turn more southwesterly and begin to increase more into the 10-15 knot range. Seas are forecast to average 2-4 feet.

Fog: Based on coastal web cameras and latest guidance, a marine Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the nearshore waters between the Altamaha and south Santee Rivers, including the Charleston Harbor. Fog will fluctuate through the night.
However, the fog should generally limit visibility to 1 SM or less. If upstream rainfall manages to push over the area, then fog may see more regular improvements.

Sunday through Thursday: Southwest winds will persist through Sunday ahead of a cold front and there may be a few gusts into the lower 20 knot range on Sunday across the Charleston nearshore areas, although conditions should remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Winds will turn westerly following fropa Sunday night and increase later Monday into Monday night. Another brief period of gusts near 25 knots will be possible mainly across the Charleston county waters and outer Georgia waters during that time...but it looks marginal at this point. A better chance for Small Craft Advisories will occur Tuesday night through Wednesday night behind another cold front.
Conditions will improve for Thursday as high pressure shifts overhead.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for AMZ330-350-352- 354.

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Drayton
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Sat -- 05:29 AM EST     0.70 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:40 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:56 AM EST     5.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:13 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:13 PM EST     1.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Drayton, Bee's Ferry, Ashley River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Charleston Harbor Entrance
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Sat -- 02:27 AM EST     -1.61 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:26 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:58 AM EST     1.40 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:39 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:41 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:04 PM EST     -1.83 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:13 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:22 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:27 PM EST     1.06 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:05 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:54 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current, knots

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