Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 2:00 PM   Moonset 2:12 AM

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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 1038 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Fri night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms after midnight. Sat - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Sun - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of tstms in the afternoon. Sun night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Mon - N winds 15 kt. A slight chance of showers. Mon night - N winds 10 to 15 kt. A slight chance of showers. Tue - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Tue night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less.
charleston harbor water temperature 77 degrees.

AMZ300 1038 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - High pressure will persist into Friday. A storm system will affect the area this weekend, followed by high pressure from the north next week.

FXUS62 KCHS 170211 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1011 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will persist into Friday. A storm system will affect the area this weekend, followed by high pressure from the north next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Winds will remain light or calm through the night, leading to decent radiational cooling. That is until clouds start to increase in response to the MCS over and near the lower Mississippi Valley. Utilizing the Time of Arrival Tool in AWIPS, and the assumption that the same speed to the east of those clouds continue, the leading edge of the thicker clouds with that MCS makes it into our interior Georgia zones by 2 am. It then arrives by 3 am at Savannah and by 4 or 5 am at Charleston.
Any convection associated with this feature looks to hold off until after 6 am. We should be able to get lows down to the mid and upper 60s most places, except 70-71F close to and along the coast, with some lower 60s in far northeast Berkeley and far northern Charleston County, where the increase in clouds will be the latest. If the clouds are slower in arriving, there are indications of some patchy low stratus and ground fog over areas north of I-26 late.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
A potent shortwave will spread extensive mid and high clouds over the area on Friday. Nevertheless, warm thicknesses should support high temps pushing into the mid/upper 80s. Some drier air is expected to mix down across inland areas with surface dewpoints dropping into the lower 60s Friday afternoon. Much of the guidance including synoptic scale models and CAMs show a decaying MCS moving into our far western zones late Friday afternoon. The best instability is forecast to remain just south of the forecast area Friday afternoon/evening.

A warm front will lift north through the area Friday night, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible through the night. Saturday an increasing SW flow will bring >1.7" PWATs into the area ahead of a longwave upper trough. There are some hints that after warm frontal precipitation lifts north of the area by mid Saturday morning, much of the day could be relatively rain-free. A series of shortwaves will then move through late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, bringing numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms. The greatest chance for severe thunderstorms will be Saturday afternoon during which the strongest instability will be present. Most guidance shows at least 1500 J/kg SBCAPE across the area and 50 kt bulk shear. This would support some storm organization with a damaging wind threat. Forecast LIs <-7C would also support large hail.

Plenty of moisture is expected to remain over the area through Sunday as a cold front drops in from the NW, then the upper trough axis swings through. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to persist through the day. Isolated severe thunderstorms could be possible due to decent instability ahead of the front.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Monday due to moisture and forcing on the western periphery of the developing surface low off the NC/SC coast. Temperatures will be considerably cooler due to cold advection as high pressure builds from the north. The cooler weather will be short-lived as the surface high shifts southeast and a southerly flow redevelops. A few showers will be possible Wednesday as a shortwave moves through.

AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 00Z Saturday. However, the remnants of an MCS will impact the area with at least some chance for SHRA/TSRA. For now we show VCSH, but adjustments are possible in later TAF issuances.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms could bring flight restrictions to all terminals Saturday through Sunday as a low pressure system impacts the region.

MARINE
No marine concerns tonight. Winds will be mainly S or SW at no more than 10 or 12 kt, with seas just 1 or 2 feet.

Friday through Tuesday: Conditions through the period are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Southerly flow will persist through Sunday, then the winds turn northerly behind a cold front early next week. Wind gusts could approach 25 kt late Sunday night into Monday morning with an initial burst of cold advection, mainly over the Charleston County nearshore waters.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Drayton
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:52 AM EDT     5.29 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:12 AM EDT     1.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:37 PM EDT     4.96 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:32 PM EDT     1.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Drayton, Bee's Ferry, Ashley River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Charleston Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:25 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:01 AM EDT     -1.57 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:15 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:22 PM EDT     1.04 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:10 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:35 PM EDT     -1.47 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:40 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current, knots

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Charleston, SC,