Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Heath, TX

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Through Saturday/

After several precipitation-free days, the weather across the region will become more active as a series of disturbances move overhead. Prior to the arrival of any rain, we'll have to contend with another breezy day as gusts reach 30-35 mph throughout the day. This is due to the tight surface pressure gradient that continues to be in place across the Southern Plains due to high pressure across the Gulf and lee cyclogenesis along the Front Range. As is usually the case, the breezy southwesterly winds will have a slight downsloping component which will lead to afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.

A cold front will slowly move southward across the Plains today with a dryline developing to our west. As these features sharpen through the afternoon, a compact shortwave will be moving overhead, supplying weak synoptic scale ascent. Thermodynamic profiles continue to suggest a thermal inversion will be in place much of the afternoon, keeping thunderstorm development at bay through around sunset. Having said that, there is a less than 10% chance an isolated thunderstorm develops this afternoon west of I-35 and north of I-20. If a storm develops, effective shear values coupled with MLCAPE of around 2500 J/Kg will be high enough for the storm to become strong to severe. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threat should a storm develop.

As the large-scale trough continues to slowly shift east, another shortwave will eject toward the Southern Plains late tonight into tomorrow morning. This will likely lead to showers and thunderstorms to develop along the cold front and dryline.
Although both of these features will be north and west of our region, any thunderstorm that develops would likely move to the east/northeast, increasing our storm chances as we proceed through the night.

There remains some uncertainty as to thunderstorm coverage tonight into tomorrow morning given storms are expected to shift away from their main source of surface convergence. If storms are able to create a cold pool tonight, localized ascent on the leading edge of the cold pool may lead to a broken cluster of storms to progress east towards the I-35 corridor through the morning. A weakening of the severe weather parameters is expected as we head into sunrise, therefore, storms Saturday morning should be sub-severe.

Shower and storm chances will linger through the rest of the tomorrow given a continued moist and unstable environment.
Concentrated forcing for ascent will be hard to come by during the afternoon, therefore, any precipitation that does develop will be transient in nature as warm-air advection remains quite strong.

There will be another round of thunderstorm activity as we head into tomorrow night. For more details, see the discussion below.

Hernandez

LONG TERM
/Issued 111 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/ /Friday Night and Beyond/

The base of the aforementioned trough will pass over the Four Corners region Friday night. Ahead of this system, surface low pressure will develop over far southwestern Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle Friday evening with a cold front extending northeast toward the Missouri Ozarks. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely near the triple point and south along the dryline late Friday evening into Friday night in the southwest Oklahoma-Childress-Wichita Falls area. Initial development will pose a large hail risk with storms evolving into more of a wind threat through the overnight. Most of this activity should remain northwest of our forecast area, but we cannot rule out a storm cluster or two nudging into our far northwestern counties, including Montague, Stephens, Jack, and Young, during the overnight.

More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday into early Sunday. By Saturday morning, the upper trough/low will shift over New Mexico with a cold front pushing into North Texas.
Thunderstorm coverage will very gradually increase from west- northwest to east-southeast through the day Saturday as the front makes slow progress through our forecast area. Much of the Saturday activity should remain along and west of the I-35/I-35W corridor. Expansive mid/high-level cloud cover will inhibit the degree of diurnal destabilization keeping the severe weather threat on the lower end. However, modest instability and strong shear will promote the potential for a couple stronger storms capable of producing small hail and gusty winds through the day.

Thunderstorm coverage and intensity will likely peak Saturday night into Sunday morning as the upper trough enters the Southern Plains and the front shifts toward the I-35 corridor and east.
Very moist atmospheric profiles (PWATs in the 1.4-1.7" range nearing max climatological values), strong synoptic scale lift, and a 40-45 kt low-level jet will promote widespread thunderstorm development and locally heavy rainfall near and behind the front through the overnight into Sunday morning. Rainfall totals will start to stack up during this time frame, especially over locations that experience training thunderstorms. A widespread 1-2 inches northwest of a Paris to Goldthwaite line remains likely with isolated 3-4+" totals primarily north of the I-20 corridor.
Lesser totals in the 0.25-0.75" range are expected southeast of a Canton-Killeen line. The severe threat will remain on the lower end with primarily a isolated hail and damaging wind threat. There may be a several hour period during the late evening into early overnight period where strong low-level wind shear overlaps with sufficient instability which could briefly increase the tornado threat, primarily along/north of I-20 and east of I-35. This threat will be largely dependent on the available instability though.

Precipitation will exit to the east by midday Sunday with dry conditions prevailing through at least Monday. Looking ahead, extended guidance continues to paint an active pattern over the Southern Plains with rain chances everyday starting late Tuesday through at least Friday of next week.

Langfeld

AVIATION
/NEW/ /18Z TAFs/

Concerns.. MVFR through the morning. Otherwise, breezy southwesterly winds continue.

Precipitation free conditions are likely across all TAF sites today. Southerly winds will continue today, at times gusting to around 30 knots. A deck of MVFR clouds continues to migrate northward and is already impacting KACT. This will move into the North Texas TAF sites shortly and continue through the mid-morning hours. The MVFR ceiling will rise to VFR as afternoon mixing commences. Another round of MVFR is likely beyond 07Z tonight as the low-level jet once again strengthens.

Hernandez

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 87 68 79 61 74 / 10 60 70 80 60 Waco 88 69 82 63 79 / 10 30 60 60 60 Paris 84 68 79 63 75 / 10 40 60 70 80 Denton 85 64 77 56 73 / 10 70 80 80 50 McKinney 85 67 78 60 73 / 10 60 70 80 60 Dallas 88 68 80 62 77 / 10 60 70 80 60 Terrell 85 68 81 62 75 / 10 40 60 70 70 Corsicana 88 70 84 64 78 / 5 20 50 60 70 Temple 89 68 83 63 78 / 5 20 60 60 60 Mineral Wells 89 65 78 55 74 / 10 70 80 90 40

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.