NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS64 KFWD 071050 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 450 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

New Aviation, Short Term

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update: Current windy, warmer, and more humid forecast through Friday still on track. Had considered a low end Wind Advisory, but it's looking just marginal at best today and will allow next forecast to assess the potential further.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion: /End of This Week/

Windy and warmer conditions (a good 10 to 20 degrees above normal for early December) will evolve for the end of the week as a very energetic, strong near zonal flow aloft brings periods of mid to high cloudiness through this evening. Low level warm advection has already commenced as of this writing and will only increase ahead of this early weekend's cold front. These successive impulses aloft will only hasten deepening low pressure across the central High Plains ahead of said cold front. This help keep the gusty south winds going over especially eastern North Texas into Central and East Texas per the southwesterly flow configuration aloft. This afternoon's high temperatures will be "mild" in comparison to Friday's as plentiful cirrus and cirrostratus hold temperatures in the east to the mid-upper 60s, while areas along and west of I-35 breach the 70-degree plateau with a few areas out in the Big Country seeing the mercury soar into the mid 70s.

The very breezy and gusty southerly winds maintain through much of tonight thanks in large part to intensifying low level warm advection driven by strengthening southwesterly 40-50 kt flow in the lower 1500 to 5000 feet. In addition, it'll bring low level moisture northward from the GoM with dew point temperature readings well into the 50s, with a few readings in the lower 60s across western Central Texas. Lastly, a surge of stratus is expected to be brought quickly northward across all but possibly the Big Country areas before daybreak Friday. This low level stratus field should erode with mixing across primarily western North and Central Texas west of I-35 with partly to mostly sunny skies and warm advection bringing spring-like temperatures from the mid 70s to even the lower 80s across the higher terrain along and west of Hwy 281. Even where clouds hold in much of the day in our far eastern counties, temperatures will surpass 70 degrees.

Despite the energetic and strong flow aloft, only some scattered sprinkles or isolated, brief showers are anticipated across eastern North and Central Texas. This is where the more moisture- rich airmass will be anchored, though a warm elevated mixed layer present aloft should keep things capped off until the cold front and deeper, stronger energy arrives later Friday night into Saturday morning. This will be discussed in more detail below in the long term discussion.

05/Marty

LONG TERM
/Issued 336 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023/ /This Weekend Through the Middle of Next Week/

A cold front will sweep through the region early Saturday.
Although it will encounter rich boundary layer moisture, strongly veered prefrontal flow and a low-level thermal profile near the diurnal minimum that will maintain inhibition should both limit the extent of convection along the advancing boundary. Within our Northeast Texas zones, these limitations may be overcome by a combination of more favorable forcing for ascent and December speed shear. But even there, the potential for a prefrontal storm (with an attendant hail threat) is low as the front will quickly push the warm sector deeper into East Texas. As the lingering inhibition erodes Saturday afternoon, deeper convection may be able to develop along the front. While this could be within our southeastern zones, the greater potential will be east of our area. A brief wind/hail threat could accompany this activity before the postfrontal air undercuts the updrafts.

Sharply cooler air will pour into the region Saturday into Saturday night, with all locations falling into the 30s Sunday morning. A light freeze is likely in many western and northern zones. Breezy north winds will persist, and wind chill values may dip into the teens around daybreak. The trailing upper trough will swing through at this time, providing a sudden burst of lift; but with limited moisture, any potential for wintry precipitation is minuscule. Sunshine will then help temperatures recover into the 50s Sunday afternoon. The sun will combine with the return of south winds on Monday to push the mercury back up above 60F.
Tuesday's high temperatures will match Monday's as an increase in cloud cover arrests the warming trend. Our next rain chances will arrive on Wednesday, as an upper low digging into the Desert Southwest begins spreading lift across the Lone Star State.

25

AVIATION
/NEW/ /12z TAFs/

VFR with scattered to broken cirrus expected through this evening.
Southeasterly surface winds 7-10 kts increase quickly with a tightening pressure gradient and mixing to between 15 and 20 kts with gusts > 25 kts after 15z Thursday.

The gusty southerly winds will maintain into tonight, though gusts may wane a bit. A 40-50 knot southwesterly LLJ will spread MVFR cigs quickly northward up across all airports after 06z Friday. I held DFW Airport to high MVFR above 2 kft at 09z Friday and after considering confidence on timing low MVFR remains questionable. I prefer this solution this far out time due to flow limitations with low MVFR with the current/ongoing runway construction.

Waco will see MVFR 1-3 hours sooner than D10 Metro airports.

05/Marty


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 59 77 51 62 / 0 0 0 5 10 Waco 68 59 75 57 66 / 0 0 0 5 10 Paris 65 54 70 51 63 / 0 0 5 30 20 Denton 70 57 77 44 60 / 0 0 0 5 5 McKinney 69 58 75 48 61 / 0 0 0 5 10 Dallas 69 58 77 51 63 / 0 0 0 5 10 Terrell 68 57 72 54 63 / 0 0 5 10 20 Corsicana 69 58 74 61 67 / 0 0 5 10 20 Temple 69 59 75 57 68 / 0 0 0 0 10 Mineral Wells 72 56 81 44 61 / 0 0 0 0 5

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Dallas/Fort Worth, TX,