Marine Weather and Tides
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 6:51AM||Sunset 6:30PM||Thursday March 4, 2021 3:44 AM CST (09:44 UTC)||Moonrise 12:00AM||Moonset 10:28AM||Illumination 69%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pelican Bay, TXHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS64 KFWD 040735 AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 135 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021
. New Short Term, Aviation .
SHORT TERM. /NEW/ /Through Thursday Night/
Tranquil conditions will continue overnight with clear skies and light southerly to southeasterly winds. Across the west, wind speeds will be a bit greater over the next few hours (near 10-12 mph or so), which will keep temperatures a touch warmer than other locations across the area. By sunrise, temperatures will fall into the upper 30s in the east to mid 40s in the west.
Later this morning, an upper low will position itself near the Four Corners region. Near the surface, a low just east of the Rockies will deepen, tightening the pressure gradient across much of North and Central Texas. As a result, winds will become breezy, especially west of I-35 where wind speeds near 15-20 mph are expected with gusts near 25+ mph. An elevated threat for grass fires will exist where these breezy winds occur, and it's highly likely that another RFD will be issued for areas along/west of I-35.
A warm afternoon is expected across the area with temperatures topping out in the 70s. Breezy southerly winds may even allow several locations in the west to reach 80 degrees. The breezy/gusty winds should taper off near sunset, but will remain near 10 mph or so tonight as a cold front approaches the area. A few showers and even a few rumbles of thunder will be possible near and along the Red River this evening and overnight tonight, as the center of a surface low moves into North Texas. Severe weather is not expected, as instability will be rather limited, but a few of the stronger storms may produce small hail.
LONG TERM. /Issued 409 PM CST Wed Mar 3 2021/ /Through This Weekend and Early Next Week/
A vigorous mid level low currently over Southern California will continue east and move east over the Central and Southern High Plains Thursday night, then open up and weaken as it drops southeast toward the Lower Mississippi Valley Friday evening. In advance of this system, strong southerly winds and increasing moisture/stratus east of I-35 Thursday night will help keep most areas up in the lower 50s, though some rural areas of East Texas and the Red River Valley may briefly drop into the upper 40s. The associated surface low will drop southeast across North & Central Texas on Friday, which will eventually shift occasionally gusty south/southeast winds, to briefly westerly across areas west of I-35 through midday, before going north or northwesterly behind a cold front. The downsloping/veered flow along/south of I-20 will lend to the warmest high temperatures from the mid 60s-lower 70s while areas along the Red River and in our northeast zones will be hard pressed to exceed 55-60 degrees. This will be due to more clouds, east-northeast winds to the northeast of the surface low.
These same areas north and east of the surface low and associated dryline moving through in advance of the late day cold front will also likely see the best moisture flux drawn northward from the GOM. Surface convergence along and ahead of the surface dryline will combine with impressive lift from the nearby, left-exit region of a 130-150 kt upper jet to provide isolated to scattered showers with either high-based or possibly elevated tstorms across the Red River Valley southeast into East Texas. Most of the better instability will be contained aloft with lapse rates between 7-8 deg C/km, however, a brief window for SBCAPE up to 500-700 J/KG may develop in advance of the surface dryline across mainly eastern Central Texas in the afternoon. With deep layer shear between 50-60 knots, we can't rule out a few strong storms across East Texas during the afternoon hours. The main threats would be mostly sub-severe hail, though we can't rule out a few storms with gusty winds across eastern Central Texas.
The surface low will exit southeast out of the CWA Friday evening with the cold front sweeping through. Lows Saturday morning will range from 40-45 degrees across the northwest to 45-50 degrees across Central Texas. Despite skies clearing from NE-SW with the departure of our mid level shortwave by afternoon, gusty northeast winds 10-15 mph and continued low level CAA will keep highs down into the lower-mid 60s for the area.
We begin to transition back to gusty south-southeast winds and warmer temperatures Sunday into early next week, as strong zonal flow aloft helps to intensify surface troughing along the Southern Rockies Lee. Temperatures pushing 70 degrees on Sunday will warm well into the 70s Monday and Tuesday, with even readings into the lower 80s a few areas by mid week in advance of our next mid level system. This will be a windy period as well as a strong southerly pressure gradient and mixing of strong 925mb-850mb winds combine for gusty south-southwest winds. The warm and windy conditions will combine with continued worsening drought conditions across some of the area and very dry grasses and small vegetation for an elevated wildfire risk just about every afternoon.
In addition to the increasing grass fire risk Sunday through next Tuesday, elevated fire weather conditions will likely occur Thursday and Friday of this week as well. We will be monitoring these issues daily and encourage everyone to be careful outdoors with campfires, any burning of trash, wood, or leaves, and of course grilling, cigarette butts, and sparks from welding and vehicle exhaust systems.
AVIATION. /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/
VFR and southerly/southeasterly winds near 5 to 10 knots will continue for the next few hours at all terminals. Breezy/gusty south winds are expected to begin late this morning and will last into the late afternoon/early evening hours. Wind speeds near 12 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots will be possible. Wind speeds should decrease to 10 to 12 knots near sunset and will remain out of the south.
We're monitoring the potential for non-convective LLWS Thursday nigh into Friday, particularly across D10. A 30-35 knot low level jet is expected to develop out of the southwest near 2000 ft AGL. As winds remain out of the south near the surface, some LLWS may be possible. Confidence was too low to include in the TAF for now, but may be needed in future updates.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Dallas-Ft. Worth 44 73 52 66 46 / 0 0 10 10 0 Waco 43 72 51 72 46 / 0 0 5 5 0 Paris 39 70 49 56 42 / 0 0 30 40 0 Denton 42 73 49 63 43 / 0 0 10 10 0 McKinney 41 72 50 63 44 / 0 0 10 20 0 Dallas 46 74 52 67 48 / 0 0 10 10 0 Terrell 40 73 50 62 45 / 0 0 10 20 0 Corsicana 43 71 51 67 47 / 0 0 10 10 0 Temple 42 72 51 71 47 / 0 0 5 5 0 Mineral Wells 43 74 48 64 43 / 0 0 5 5 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
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|Fort Worth, Naval Air Station, TX||9 mi||52 min||SSE 8||10.00 mi||Fair||54°F||38°F||55%||1017.5 hPa|
|Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport, TX||10 mi||51 min||SE 8||10.00 mi||Fair||50°F||39°F||66%||1018.7 hPa|
|Fort Worth, Fort Worth Alliance Airport, TX||11 mi||51 min||SSE 7||10.00 mi||Fair||49°F||37°F||64%||1018.4 hPa|
|Decatur, Decatur Municipal Airport, TX||24 mi||49 min||SE 6||10.00 mi||Fair||48°F||37°F||65%||1018.6 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KNFW
Wind History from NFW (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||NW||Calm||NW||NW||NW||N||Calm||Calm||N||NE||Calm||E||S||SE||S||Calm||Calm||S||S||S||S|
|2 days ago||N||N||N||N||N||N||N||N||NE||NE||N||NE|
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