Thursday, January21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pelican Bay, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 5:53PM Thursday January 21, 2021 3:09 PM CST (21:09 UTC) Moonrise 12:33PMMoonset 1:12AM Illumination 60% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pelican Bay, TX
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location: 32.91, -97.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 212047 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 247 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021

. New Long Term .

SHORT TERM. /Issued 134 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021/ /This afternoon through Friday/

Widespread cloudiness across North and Central TX is keeping the temperatures in the 50s with a few spots in the 60s across Central TX. As the ongoing light rain continues to move east/northeast, we will see an increase in coverage across Central TX through the evening as a surface trough interacts with the good moisture. Some pockets of moderate rain will be possible, but most of the activity will remain light.

A lull in precipitation is expected during the overnight hours before another round of light rain moves from the west during Friday morning. This will be associated with a mid-level energy and a weak surface cold front that will move across the region late tonight into the morning hours. In addition to the light rain/drizzle potential, some patchy fog will be possible across North and Central TX. Lows tonight will stay in the 40s across North TX and 50s across Central TX. While some drier and cooler air will filter into the area on Friday, most of the area will stay under partly or mostly cloudy skies. Highs will only reach the mid 50s across North TX to mid/upper 60s across Central TX.

Sanchez

LONG TERM. /NEW/ /Friday night through Thursday/

Brief ridging aloft and abundant cloud cover Friday night will offset weak low level cold air advection, keeping overnight lows in the 40s and lower 50s. The cloud cover will remain on Saturday, but Gulf moisture will quickly return behind a lifting warm front. Scattered showers will develop through the day Saturday as a deep upper low churns across the Desert Southwest and yields increasing large scale lift and gradual mid level destabilization. The showers will continue through Saturday night but will likely shift to the eastern half of the region as shortwave energy ejects out of the base of the approaching system. There should be enough mid level destabilization Saturday night for some isolated, elevated, thunderstorms. The clouds and rain Saturday will keep daytime highs in the 50s and 60s.

Sunday morning will start out humid and mild for late January with lows from the mid 40s to upper 50s. Showers and thunderstorms will develop through the day as the upper low opens up and lifts across New Mexico, putting North and Central Texas in an area of upper level diffluence. The combination of lift, destabilization, and more than adequate shear will result in increasing thunderstorm chances Sunday afternoon/evening. The unknown is how strong and how long a capping inversion will hold which will prevent storms from becoming rooted in the boundary layer. Most models suggest that while MUCAPE will be over 1000 J/KG, the cap may hold for much of the day and evening, and without some source of low level convergence, storms could stay elevated. Of course, if storms can become surface based, they will likely have the necessary ingredients to become strong to severe, capable of the full suite of severe weather hazards. One thing that is clear is that moisture will be high and there will be a good potential for locally heavy rainfall, especially east of the I-35 corridor where precipitable water values will be the highest.

Shower and storms will continue overnight Sunday into Monday morning as the upper trough lifts to the Central Plains and a cold front moves in from the west. Although low level forcing for ascent will increase along the eastward moving front, a decrease in both instability and large scale lift will likely result in downward trend in storm strength. Drier and subsident air will quickly filter in behind the front and departing upper system Monday afternoon, resulting in decreasing clouds and a breezy west to northwest wind.

Brief ridging aloft Monday night through Tuesday will result in rain-free weather with temperatures near or slightly above seasonal normals. By Tuesday night, the ridge axis will shift quickly east ahead of the next storm system lifting out of the Desert Southwest. Unlike the last few systems, this disturbance will have very little low level moisture to work with and will only bring middle/high clouds and a slight chance of light showers. All precipitation and most of the clouds will exit the region Wednesday night through Thursday with a building ridge aloft and dry air advection in the low levels. Temperatures Wednesday night will be in the 30s and lower 40s and highs Thursday will be in the 50s and lower 60s.

79

AVIATION. /Issued 134 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021/ /18Z TAFs/

Light rain and perhaps a few showers will be possible through the evening hours across most of the TAF sites. Low ceilings and visibilities will likely develop late tonight into Friday morning, along with a chance of drizzle and/or light rain as a weak cold front moves across the region. FROPA will likely occur around 08Z for the DFW Metroplex sites and a few hours later for Waco. Expect IFR conditions through most of the morning hours, with MVFR cigs returning around 18Z. For now, we kept visibilities around 3SM, but we will continue to monitor the trends to adjust the forecast as needed.

Sanchez

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Dallas-Ft. Worth 48 57 46 59 53 / 30 10 5 20 40 Waco 52 64 51 64 57 / 40 10 0 30 40 Paris 46 57 39 51 45 / 20 10 0 5 50 Denton 44 56 42 58 50 / 20 10 0 20 30 McKinney 46 57 43 57 50 / 30 10 5 20 40 Dallas 50 58 47 60 55 / 30 10 5 20 40 Terrell 49 58 44 58 51 / 30 10 5 20 50 Corsicana 52 62 50 63 56 / 40 10 0 20 40 Temple 51 66 49 65 57 / 40 10 0 20 40 Mineral Wells 46 56 44 61 53 / 20 10 0 20 20

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Worth, Naval Air Station, TX9 mi78 minSSE 410.00 miLight Rain55°F50°F83%1011.3 hPa
Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport, TX10 mi77 minSSE 610.00 miLight Rain53°F51°F93%1012.5 hPa
Fort Worth, Fort Worth Alliance Airport, TX11 mi77 minSSW 410.00 miLight Rain56°F49°F77%1012.8 hPa
Decatur, Decatur Municipal Airport, TX24 mi75 minS 610.00 miFair56°F47°F72%1012.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNFW

Wind History from NFW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN3CalmS7S5S6SW8S7SW6S4SE3E3SE4S5S4CalmNE3CalmCalmSW3S4SE4S7
1 day agoN14
G18
NE12N10N10N3N10N10N8N9--NE7NE5N7N4N8N5CalmCalmCalmCalm--------
2 days agoS13SE10SE7E5E5E4CalmE5E3E5NE5NE13
G18
NE10
G15
N10NE11NE11NE10NE7NE14
G19
NE9N15N15
G23
N12N10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.