Sunrise 6:45 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 10:13 PM   Moonset 7:12 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS64 KFWD 260646 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 146 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Through Friday Night/

A period of active weather will unfold early this morning and continue for the next few days. Thunderstorms developed last night over the Caprock Escarpment and have moved east-northeast through the pre-dawn hours. As of this writing, there are two distinct areas we're watching...one is currently near Guthrie and another is west of San Angelo. The northern cluster will have the highest severe potential, with damaging winds and large hail being the main threats. This cluster may skirt across our far northwestern counties early this morning, but a bulk of the activity should remain to our north and northwest.

The southernmost cluster struggled to organize for most of the night, but should blossom as it moves east into more positively buoyant air. We expect it to move into our forecast area near sunrise and approach the I-35 corridor near the morning commute.
Storm coverage should increase as the cluster moves into and east of the I-35 corridor once it taps into ongoing low-level warm advection and erodes the capping that currently overspreads the region. We expect a blossoming of loosely-organized convection east of I-35 this morning continuing into the afternoon, slowly moving east this afternoon. There will be a low severe threat with this activity, with large hail being the main threat and a lower threat of damaging wind gusts. The tornado threat will be highest to our east and northeast, but it is non-zero in our area. There is also a risk of flooding this morning into the early afternoon.
Low confidence about the coverage of storms precludes issuance of a flood watch...but isolated instances of minor flooding or urban flash flooding will be possible if training storms develop.

The aforementioned activity will largely take place along/ahead of a leading shortwave trough. On the surface, a dryline currently over West Texas is expected to move into our forecast area this afternoon. The boundary is forecast to stall within ~25 miles of Montague, Mineral Wells, and Goldthwaite. The morning activity will stabilize the airmass...but clearing early in the afternoon may provide enough recovery for isolated storms to develop along the boundary late in the afternoon. Any storms that are able to develop will be capable of becoming discrete supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, and possibly a tornado. This is a conditional severe threat, with our confidence of any storm developing ~20%. Any storms should weaken as they move east of the dryline into more stable air and dissipate after sunset.

Bonnette

LONG TERM
/Issued 313 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024/ /Saturday Through Early Next Week/

There will be two potential rounds of severe weather over the weekend. The first of which will be more isolated through Saturday afternoon, with a second and more widespread round late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. The atmosphere will be primed for all modes of severe weather through both rounds, with large hail and damaging winds being the main concerns. There is a low chance for a few tornadoes, mainly for the second round of thunderstorms through Sunday morning. On top of that, there is a low chance for isolated instances of flash flooding, mainly along the Red River.

Increasing surface moisture ahead of a dry line and an approaching Pacific cold front will interact with what could be a largely untapped warm sector draped across North and Central Texas. The overall extent and coverage of convective activity through Saturday afternoon and evening will depend on the initial placement of the dry line that will be positioned off to our west.
This convection will likely remain quite isolated, only impacting our westernmost counties before weakening as they encounter a less favorable storm environment thanks to a capping inversion. Of course, the strength of the cap will be the big question when it comes to the extent and coverage of this first round of thunderstorms. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats with these storms, with a low chance for an isolated tornado or two through late Saturday afternoon and evening.

The second round of thunderstorms will start as the Pacific cold front finally catches up to the dry line and begins its journey east through our region. Convection will fire off along this boundary as it moves through North and Central Texas, bringing along with it the potential for severe weather. It's likely that convection will start off more discrete before quickly up-scaling into a linear system of storms. All modes of severe weather will be possible as this moves through late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Storm mode will partially dictate the probability of each hazard as the storms evolve over time, and will certainly be worth monitoring as higher resolution guidance continues to come in. The overall timing for this will depend on how quickly these storms push through. Given the overall setup, it's possible this line of storms will take all of Sunday to push through our entire forecast area. This will increase our flash flooding potential across portions of East Texas and will be worth watching.

On top of these storm chances, the weekend will be quite breezy as ambient winds approach 20 to 30 mph. Gusts upwards of 40 to 45 mph will also be possible on Saturday, which will potentially exacerbate our severe weather potential. A Wind Advisory will likely be necessary for our entire forecast area on Saturday.

An unsettled weather pattern will likely continue through the start of next week, with a temporary break from storm chances before our next system begins working it's way into our region toward the end of next week. Continue to check back for updates to the forecast regarding our severe weather potential over the weekend and regarding our next storm chances later next week.

Reeves

AVIATION
/NEW/ /06Z TAFs/

Gusty south flow will continue through the valid TAF period with periods of MVFR ceilings (mainly overnight and in the mornings).
Two clusters of storms have developed to our west. One is currently east of Lubbock and another is south of Midland. Both will move E to NE, with the northernmost cluster likely impacting the Bowie/UKW cornerpost during the morning push. The southernmost cluster will have the highest likelihood of impacting the D10/ACT terminals. Expect storms to approach our TAF sites between 11-13Z this morning. This likely will not be a "one and done" storm event, meaning redevelopment after the initial storms will be likely...therefore, we have expanded the D10 TEMPO through 15Z to account for this. Finer tuning of TS timing will likely be needed once the southernmost cluster organizes over the next few hours.

Improving conditions are expected in the late morning to early afternoon as the storms move east. There is a 15% chance of additional isolated storms developing late in the day, but most of this activity should remain west of the TAF terminals.

Bonnette


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 81 71 83 68 / 50 90 20 50 70 Waco 71 77 71 83 68 / 20 60 20 30 50 Paris 68 76 68 82 68 / 40 90 20 50 60 Denton 69 82 69 81 65 / 60 90 10 60 80 McKinney 69 78 70 82 68 / 50 90 5 50 70 Dallas 70 81 71 83 68 / 40 90 20 50 70 Terrell 70 76 70 83 68 / 30 90 10 40 60 Corsicana 70 79 71 85 70 / 20 80 10 20 40 Temple 70 79 71 83 68 / 20 60 20 20 50 Mineral Wells 69 86 69 81 63 / 70 50 20 60 80

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Dallas/Fort Worth, TX,