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FXUS64 KFWD 302347 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 547 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Through Friday Evening/

A shortwave trough located over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles will continue lifting northeast into the Central Plains, shifting the axis of showers and isolated thunderstorms farther east with time. Activity should exit to the east of the forecast area 8-10 PM, with drier air filling in from the west. Clearing skies and drier air associated with the dryline allowed temperatures to climb into the mid 70s across the far west counties this afternoon. This dryline and associated shift to west winds should arrive along the I-35 corridor about the time convection exits the CWA. An attendant cold front will enter from the northwest late this evening and push through the region overnight, eventually clearing the southern-most counties around daybreak Friday. Light winds and shallow moisture will likely lead to fog formation ahead of the front, so will include at least patchy fog late evening/ overnight. Any fog that forms will dissipate Friday morning with the passage of the front.

A trailing upper trough will approach from the west on Friday, but any associated precipitation will remain predominantly south of the region in the vicinity of the cold front. Low POPs may still be carried across the far southeast tomorrow afternoon where a few showers may still occur. Otherwise, a dry and seasonable Friday can be expected with highs ranging from the upper 50s along the Red River to the mid 60s across the south.

30

LONG TERM
/Issued 231 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023/ Update:

No major changes in store for the long term forecast. Brief, low (20%) rain chances exist tomorrow night as rain showers may skirt the far southeast of our forecast area. Otherwise, it'll be rain- free and mild with temperatures near or slightly above normal through the midweek.

Gordon

Previous Discussion: /Friday through Wednesday/

Drier and cooler air will filter into North and Central Texas Friday behind a cold front. The front should reach the Texas Gulf Coast by sunrise Friday and remain stalled in that vicinity through much of the weekend. Weak cold air advection will be offset partially by daytime sun, allowing temperatures to warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s for most of the forecast area. The dry air will remain in place Friday night but high clouds will slow cooling a bit. Temperatures will fall into the 40s in most locations by early Saturday morning, except for the the northern zones where upper 30s will be more common.

A series of shortwave troughs will rotate through the region Saturday through Sunday, but with low level moisture scoured out, they will come through virtually unnoticed. One thing that will be noticed will be a nice warmup both Saturday and Sunday with plenty of sun and some compressional warming supplied by a southwest to west wind. Since the western zones will miss out on most of the precipitation today, there will be a slight uptick in the wildfire potential Sunday due to increasing west winds, relative humidity less than 30 percent, and above normal temperatures.

The first half of next week will be rain-free and quiet with dry northwest flow aloft and only a very slow return of Gulf moisture.
Temperatures Monday through Wednesday will be near seasonal normals with highs in the 60s and lows from the mid 30s to the lower 40s.

It does look like some low rain chances may return to portions of North and Central Texas by the end of next week.

79

AVIATION
/NEW/ /00Z TAFs/

Convection is shifting east and should no longer affect any TAF locations this evening. IFR ceilings will end from west to east over the next few hours as a dryline enters from the west (conditions are already VFR at KACT). Ceilings in the DFW Metroplex should improve to VFR by 01/03Z. A cold front will bring a shift to northwest winds 07-09Z at all TAF locations.

Will need to keep an eye on visibilities as recent guidance indicates a potential for fog development ahead of the cold front.
The latest TAFs include some reduced vis through at least 03Z to account for this potential. Higher fog probabilities remain in Southeast Texas. Otherwise, conditions will return to VFR overnight behind the front and remain as such through the end of the TAF period.

30


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 45 60 45 71 42 / 10 0 0 0 0 Waco 47 64 44 71 44 / 5 0 0 5 0 Paris 47 58 40 64 38 / 80 0 0 0 0 Denton 41 59 40 71 37 / 10 0 0 0 0 McKinney 44 58 40 68 37 / 30 0 0 0 0 Dallas 46 60 44 70 42 / 10 0 0 0 0 Terrell 46 60 42 68 40 / 30 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 49 62 46 71 45 / 20 5 5 5 0 Temple 46 67 43 73 43 / 5 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 40 61 43 72 39 / 5 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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