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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 604 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from noon est today through late tonight...
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw with gusts to 25 kt this afternoon. A slight chance of showers this morning, then showers with a chance of tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt.
Tue..NE winds 10 kt.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt.
Wed night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less.
charleston harbor water temperature 59 degrees.

AMZ300 604 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A strong cold front will cross the area this evening, followed by high pressure through late next week.

FXUS62 KCHS 101151 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 651 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
A strong cold front will cross the area this evening, followed by high pressure through late next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Early this morning, nighttime microphysics RGB and surface based observations indicated stratus with patchy fog across the inland counties. High resolution guidance indicates that rounds of fog may develop along the coast during the pre-dawn hours. As winds strengthen during the early daylight hours, the fog potential should come to an end. The forecast will feature a mention of patchy fog until sunrise this morning.

This morning, the sfc pressure gradient will increase to 2-3 mbs as a cold front approaches from the west. The mixing height should increase to 2-3 kft by mid-morning. Forecast soundings indicate that the winds at the top of the mixed layer will increase to 35-40 kts, with momentum transfer in the mid 20 kts. Wind gusts around 25 mph should become common between mid-morning to noon, and remaining this afternoon and evening. A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued for this afternoon and evening across Lake Moultrie.

The latest run of the HRRR and 0Z HRRR indicates that a solid pre- frontal band of showers and embedded thunderstorms will reach inland SE GA this afternoon, pushing to the coast of GA/SC by late this afternoon. The environment will feature significant shear, 0-1km around 30 kts and SBCAPE between 100-300 J/kg. It is possible one or two storms could become strong, producing enhanced wind gusts. The SPC Convective Outlook for today indicates a Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, with a Slight Risk just to the north. The forecast will time PoPs up to 100% late this afternoon into early this evening. Otherwise, the forecast will feature very mild temperatures, peaking in the mid 70s.

Tonight, the convection should rapidly push offshore this evening, followed by the cold front by midnight. The passage of the cold front will result in strong CAA tonight. In fact, NAM indicates that H85 temps will fall from 11C over KCHS at 3Z to around 3C by 9Z.
Cloud cover should decrease through the night, becoming clear by sunrise Monday. Using a blend of MOS, low temperatures are forecast to range from the low 30s inland to the low 40s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Cool and dry high pressure is expected to prevail Monday through Wednesday. Clear skies are anticipated Monday, then high cirrus will gradually increase late Monday night into Wednesday as high-level moisture increases. Monday highs will be in the middle 50s. A chilly night is in store for Monday night due to mostly clear skies and light winds. A few spots could dip into the upper 20s far inland, while the remainder of the area bottoms out in the lower to middle 30s except along the immediate coast where readings will be higher. Highs will warm 2-3 degrees per day Tuesday and Wednesday as the surface high gradually modifies.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure to the north will maintain quiet conditions Wednesday night through Friday. Some of the guidance continues to indicate the potential for a coastal low moving through next weekend, though things have trended a bit farther offshore with the low development. We maintained a chance of rain showers in the forecast.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Prior to the 12Z TAFs: IR satellite indicated a large area of stratus inland of the terminals, the low clouds should advance NW early this morning. As a cold front approaches from the west, the pressure gradient will gradually increase across SE GA/SC. MOS and forecast soundings indicate that gusts around 20 kts will develop be mid-morning, increasing to the mid 20s by early this afternoon. Based on high resolution guidance, a band of moderate showers with embedded thunderstorms are timed to push across KSAV between 20-24Z and KCHS/KJZI 22-02Z, highlighted with TEMPOs. Winds will veer from the WSW tonight, with gusts to around 20 kts remaining through tonight. MVFR ceilings are forecast to linger over the terminals into the late night hours. Drier air should arrive by the pre-dawn hours, resulting in the cloud cover to erode from west to east.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR will prevail Monday through much of next week.

MARINE
The sfc pressure gradient across the region will increase to 2-3 mbs as a cold front approaches from the west. The mixing height should increase to 2-3 kft by mid-morning. Forecast soundings indicate that the winds at the top of the mixed layer will increase to 35-40 kts, with momentum transfer in the mid 20 kts. This afternoon, wind gusts of 25-30 kts will develop across the outer GA and nearshore Charleston County waters this afternoon. In addition, wave heights will increase to 5-7 ft. The wind and sea conditions will be highlighted with Small Craft Advisories.

The environment across the coastal waters should support a developing band of pre-frontal thunderstorms late this afternoon into this evening. These storms will have potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts. In fact, the HRRR indicates a 10-30% chance of greater than 50kts/20 dBZ with 40 km of any marine point this evening. Special Marine Warnings may be needed this PM.

This evening and tonight, a strong cold front will sweep across the marine zones this evening. The passage of the front and strong CAA will result in wind gusts between 35-40 kts across the waters outside of the Charleston Harbor. Gale Warnings have been issued for tonight. Seas are forecast to peak between 5-9 ft around 6Z.

Marine conditions will rapidly improve Monday morning as high pressure builds more fully into the area. 6 ft seas will remain possible beyond approximately 15 nm from shore through the morning, likely requiring a Small Craft Advisory for areas outside Charleston Harbor until midday.

A tightening NE gradient Tuesday night and Wednesday will result in building seas over the waters. We could need SCAs for a portion of the marine area due to marginal 25 kt gusts and seas building to 6 ft or higher.

An extended period of widespread SCAs expected Wednesday night through the weekend as strong high pressure expands north of the area and low pressure develops off the FL coast. Seas will range from 6-11 ft and wind gusts will occasionally be as high as 25-30 kt.

EQUIPMENT
KCLX remains operational, but level 2 data is not being distributed to external users due to an internal hardware failure. We are still awaiting the arrival of new parts to resolve this problem. Until then, level 2 data will not be available. Radar data is available for all connected AWIPS users. Level 3 data is also available for some external users.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Monday for SCZ045.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EST Monday for AMZ330.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ350- 374.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM EST Monday for AMZ350-352-354.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Monday for AMZ374.

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Bacon Bridge
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Sun -- 02:55 AM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:48 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:16 AM EST     2.09 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:21 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:39 PM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:14 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:23 PM EST     1.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bacon Bridge, Ashley River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Charleston Harbor Entrance
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Sun -- 02:27 AM EST     1.56 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:46 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:17 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:32 AM EST     -2.30 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 12:37 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:46 PM EST     1.44 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:20 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:13 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:06 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:31 PM EST     -2.01 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current, knots

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Charleston, SC,