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FXUS64 KFWD 292340 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 540 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Through Thursday Evening/

A shortwave trough currently located over Southern California will be the main driver of the local weather over the next 24 to 36 hours as it advances east through the Desert Southwest tonight, then the southern Rockies Thursday morning, before lifting northeast through Northwest Texas Thursday afternoon.
North and Central Texas will become wedged between a surface ridge over the Southeast states and a strengthening surface cyclone in lee of the Rockies, creating a deep moist fetch from the western Gulf into the Southern Plains. Gulf moisture is already spreading north as a result, and will increase more rapidly tonight as a 40-50 MPH southerly low level jet develops. Occasional warm/moist advection rain showers can be expected overnight into Thursday morning. Elevated thunderstorms will also be possible over the eastern half of the forecast area where warm advection will be at a maximum. A warm layer around 850mb should preclude any surface based convection overnight through mid Thursday morning, though a storm or two may be capable of small hail.

Thunderstorm coverage will increase late morning through Thursday afternoon as the shortwave emerges in the Texas Panhandle and the strongest forcing for ascent arrives. Surface-based convection may become possible by afternoon as surface heating helps erode the 850mb cap. Strong deep layer shear along with modest instability will allow for a few severe thunderstorms to occur, with the best set-up being over our southeast-most counties. It is possible that clouds and morning precipitation will mitigate destabilization, which would limit the severe weather threat. It is entirely possible, however, that a storm or two will eventually become surface-based by mid to late afternoon, which would pose a risk for all modes of severe weather. High amounts of low- altitude helicity will make the tornado threat a concern for any surface-based storm, in addition to the hail and wind threat.

The window for severe weather will shut off late afternoon-early Thursday evening as the shortwave continues northeast through Oklahoma, a Pacific front sweeps through the area and convection shifts east into East Texas and Louisiana. Clearing skies and cooler, drier air will enter from the west, making for a cool night with temperatures falling into the 40s.

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LONG TERM
/Issued 204 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/ /Friday Through Early Next Week/

By Friday morning, North and Central Texas will be situated between a pair of shortwave troughs embedded in the prevailing southwesterly flow aloft. The modified/post-frontal airmass behind the leading shortwave, which will be moving across the Ohio Valley, will not have much time to recover ahead of the next shortwave. This should allow this secondary disturbance to lift into the Central Plains generally unnoticed on Friday. The first day of December is shaping up to be the coolest day of the extended period in many areas with highs topping out in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

On Saturday, another shortwave trough will pass over the Rockies and quickly advance across the Central and Southern Plains.
Weekend rain chances will likely remain closely tied to the stalled remnants of Friday's cold front which guidance has shown may be clinging to the coast or settled just offshore. With the shortwave trough passing well to our north and a lack of boundary layer moisture, North and Central Texas looks to remain rain-free through the weekend. As surface winds veer to the west-southwest, downslope warming will result in afternoon temperatures climbing quickly into the 60s and lower 70s both Saturday and Sunday.

By Sunday night or Monday morning, another weak cold front should sag southeastward through the region scouring out the lingering vestiges of boundary layer moisture. Mid-level ridging over the Rockies and Intermountain West will keep mild and dry northwesterly flow in place across the Southern Plains through at least the middle of next week. Temperatures are expected to hover near the climatological mean with highs in the 60s and lows in the mid 30s/40s.

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AVIATION
/NEW/ /00Z TAFs/

Increasing Gulf moisture ahead of the next upper level storm system will bring MVFR ceilings after 30/06Z, with IFR cigs becoming likely by 30/12Z. Isolated TS after 30/06Z are expected to remain east of TAF sites at this time. The most likely window for TS at the Metroplex TAF sites, based on the latest guidance, is from 30/16Z until 30/22Z, with the higher coverage of TS over East Texas. KACT will be similar, though perhaps an hour or two earlier. Will indicate prevailing -SHRA with VCTS during that 16-22Z time, and cigs may occasionally drop to LIFR in that same window. Convection should move east of all TAF locations while cigs improve 30/22Z - 01/00Z.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 54 62 44 60 43 / 60 90 20 0 0 Waco 56 70 47 62 43 / 60 90 5 0 0 Paris 49 57 46 58 38 / 60 100 70 0 0 Denton 53 60 40 59 38 / 60 90 20 0 0 McKinney 53 60 43 58 39 / 70 90 30 0 0 Dallas 54 63 44 60 43 / 70 90 20 0 0 Terrell 52 62 45 58 40 / 80 90 40 0 0 Corsicana 54 66 49 62 44 / 80 90 30 0 5 Temple 55 70 46 65 43 / 60 80 5 0 0 Mineral Wells 54 67 40 61 41 / 30 70 5 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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