SYNOPSIS
A somewhat unsettled weather pattern will bring increasing rain chances for mainly the northern portions of the region, with continued breezy winds region-wide for today. Below normal temperatures are expected the next couple of days before warming and drying conditions will commence going into next week.

DISCUSSION
Strong negative height anomalies continue to persist across southern California, as the main circulation with the longwave trough is nearing the L.A. area early this morning. Some shower and thunderstorm activity has continued for portions of California into the early morning hours, with noticeably dry air in place over SE CA and into southwestern to southcentral AZ. This drier air will limit shower and thunderstorm potential as the strong dynamics with this trough would otherwise provide better potential across the region.
As such, the main activity is expected to be limited primarily to areas of best dynamics as the upper level low begins to migrate eastward, which looks to remain along the northern fringes of the forecast area today and tonight. The latest PoP outlook is around 30- 40% for places such as Joshua Tree NP for today, spreading eastward across La Paz, Maricopa, and Gila Counties going into tonight. NBM probabilities of any significant rain accumulations remain low, as the best chances of a quarter inch or more totals are limited to Joshua Tree NP at around 30-50%.

Aside from the rain potential, breezy winds will continue today, more widespread across southcentral Arizona, with periodic gustiness 20-30 mph during the afternoon and early evening hours. Gusty winds look to continue further west as well across the favored higher terrain areas and eventually into the lower deserts of the Imperial Valley this evening. Otherwise, temperatures will be noticeably cooler, as the main low center will migrate across the region over the next couple of days. High temperatures should run 5-10 degrees below normal during this period, with lower desert lows in the mid- 60s to low 70s for the next couple of nights.

Heading into next week, the troughing feature will lift to the northeast, with temperatures quickly rebounding back towards normal as early as Sunday. High amplitude ridging is expected to build across the Pacific Northwest, allowing some version of troughing, with neutral to slightly negative height anomalies, to persist across the region going into the middle of next week. Ensemble clusters show some slight variance through Tuesday, but, by Wednesday, the pattern looks to be such that the main ridge axis will be more centered across the region, allowing temperatures to reach several degrees above normal. There are some more noticeable differences amongst the ensembles going into late next week, as the next troughing feature sets up offshore of the West Coast. However, general ridging looks to hang on across the region during this period, resulting in continued above normal temperatures and dry conditions.

AVIATION
Updated at 1705Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: An extended period of southerly cross runway winds early/mid afternoon will be the greatest weather issue under occasional scattered cloud decks 080-100ft AGL. Confidence is moderate that a 150v220 wind component will be common through late afternoon before finally settling on the SW direction into the evening. Frequent gusts 15-20kt should develop through the afternoon before relaxing mid evening. Eventually overnight, a switch to an E/SE will occur with isold SHRA over mountains north and east of the terminals. A few SHRA may persist just outside the immediate Phoenix airspace Saturday morning with an earlier than usual flip back to SW by late morning.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major weather concerns should exist through Saturday afternoon under periods of mid/high cloud decks. Confidence is good that W winds will prevail through much of the period at KIPL with some modest gusts possible this afternoon. Directions will be more variable at KBLH with a S component favored through early this evening.

FIRE WEATHER
A drier and cooler airmass encompassing the region will result in below normal temperatures through Saturday. Stronger southerly to southwesterly will develop this afternoon, with gusts to 20-25 mph expected today, focused across higher terrain areas of the western districts and southcentral AZ. MinRH's will hover around 15-30% region-wide over the next couple of days, with some slight drying first across the western districts starting Saturday and spreading eastward on Sunday, with MinRH's more in the 10-20% range by the beginning of next week. Overnight RH recoveries will be fair to good across the region over the next couple of mornings, before degrading to generally fair to poor in spots going into next week. Warming temperatures to above normal are expected to develop late this weekend and persist through most of next week.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.