Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Goose Creek, SC

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
Tonight: Latest radar imagery indicates light to moderate showers with a few instances of thunder occurring along coastal areas this evening, a bulk of which is drifting offshore across the nearby Atlantic during the past hour. The bulk of hires guidance favors a waning trend in convection through midnight, following a typical outcome for convection within an environment lacking strong shear and a loss of diurnal heating. Most areas are expected to become precip-free by around midnight, then remain dry through the remainder of the night. Convective debris clouds should thin with time once activity dissipates and sfc winds will become light/calm for a bulk of the night. Another mild night is expected with lows generally ranging in the low-mid 70s inland to around 80 degrees at the beaches and Downtown Charleston.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A deep layered ridge will expand from the western Atlantic into the Southeast United States early next week, bringing a pretty typical summertime pattern to the area. High temps will increase a degree or two each day with values in the low to mid 90s.
Dewpoints solidly in the 70s will combine to produce 100-105F heat indices each day. Increasing mid-level subsidence should limit diurnal convective coverage, though with 1500-2000 J/kg CAPEs each day, isolated to scattered coverage expected.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
The deep layered ridge will persist through late week, though a cold front could sag into the area or pass through on Friday, bringing a slight increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage.
Highs each day will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices topping out 100-105F.

AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Early evening showers are expected to wane and/or shift offshore by around 02-03Z, which could lead to TEMPO MVFR conditions at JZI or SAV terminals during the next 1-2 hours. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through at least 15Z Monday, and likely into early afternoon Monday, before showers and thunderstorms develop across the region mid-late afternoon. At this time, VCSH has been introduced at CHS/JZI terminals and VCTS at SAV between 20-23Z Monday. Future TAF issuances could need to include TEMPO flight restrictions should shower and/or thunderstorm probabilities increase and timing becomes more clear.

Extended Aviation Forecast: Brief flight restrictions are possible in showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly in the afternoon.

MARINE
Tonight: Expect marine conditions to remain well below Small Craft Advisory levels outside convection (which is waning during the next hour or two). A typical southwest flow regime will prevail along the northwest edge of high pressure extending across the western Atlantic with wind speeds generally averaging between 10-15 kt across most waters while occasional gusts up to 20 kt also being possible during the evening. Seas will range between 2-4 ft.

Monday through Friday: A decent SW gradient will exist along the coast Monday through Friday with a robust afternoon sea breeze each day. Wind gusts in Charleston Harbor could top 20 kt for a few hours each afternoon. We could be close to Small Craft Advisory criteria Tuesday afternoon.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk for rip currents remains in place through Monday for a 9 second swell impacting the beaches.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.