Sunday, April5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Goose Creek, SC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 7:44PM Sunday April 5, 2020 3:13 PM EDT (19:13 UTC) Moonrise 4:06PMMoonset 4:41AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 225 Pm Edt Sun Apr 5 2020
This afternoon..SE winds 10 kt.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt.
Thu night..W winds 10 kt. A chance of showers. Mariners are reminded that winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 67 degrees.
AMZ300 225 Pm Edt Sun Apr 5 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will prevail for the first half of this week. A cold front is expected to move through the region towards the end of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Goose Creek, SC
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location: 33, -79.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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FXUS62 KCHS 051837 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 237 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will prevail for the first half of this week. A cold front is expected to move through the region towards the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Sunday afternoon: Scattered showers and even isolated thunderstorms continued to develop across southeast GA south/west of Savannah, and high resolution guidance suggests that scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms will expand north and west across the region. Any showers could produce brief heavy rain, as much as a quick 0.50-1 inch in a couple of spots, but most locations will receive much less rainfall to no rainfall.

Adjusted hourly temperatures downward across SE GA areas impacted by showers. Other aspects of the forecast remain on track. Along/north of the Savannah River, temperatures are still expected to top out in 75-80F range, with onshore flow producing cooler temperatures on the beaches.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Tonight: Lingering showers should dissipate across SE GA early. Then, light winds/moist low-levels should support radiation fog overnight in many areas. While widespread/dense fog does not appear likely at most locations, locally dense ground fog could develop especially across SE GA where rain fell Sunday afternoon. Lows will range from the lower/middle 50s inland to the upper 50s/lower 60s near the coast.

Monday: Mid-level ridging to our west strengthens slightly, causing heights to increase overhead within west northwest flow. Weak waves within the flow may pass overhead in the evening and overnight. High pressure in the Atlantic slowly moves away, allowing moisture to gradually increase across the Southeast. Though, moisture isn't very impressive as PWATs struggle to reach ~1" in the afternoon. Additionally, lift isn't impressive either (surface and aloft). It's possible the best lift may be driven by the afternoon sea breeze. Some of the models indicate showers across our inland SC counties in the afternoon and evening, so we maintained the slight chance POPs in these locations. No thunderstorms are expected due to limited instability. Elsewhere, dry conditions should persist, especially overnight. Thickness values and winds becoming generally south support above normal daytime temperatures (cooler at the beaches) and very warm overnight temperatures. Though, no records are forecasted to be broken at this time.

Tuesday: The mid-level ridge to our west maintains its location and intensity, leading to west northwest flow overhead. A series of waves embedded within the flow should move over us in the afternoon and into the night. Surface high pressure persists offshore while troughing starts to develop across the Southeast, especially late in the day and overnight. The resulting flow ushers moisture into our area with some models hinting afternoon PWATs approaching 1.5", which is well above normal for this time of year. Overall lift (surface and aloft) is better than previous days, but there isn't an overwhelming feature that will generate widespread showers at a specific time. Models seem to lean more towards isolated to scattered showers in the afternoon, persisting into the overnight. Hence, we kept POPs capped at chance. Instability is still lacking, so no thunderstorms are in the forecast. Temperatures are above normal. The overnight lows may be warm enough to put some records in jeopardy.

Wednesday: Mid-level ridging to our west weakens slightly. Though, west northwest flow prevails overhead. Additionally, a series of weak waves embedded within the flow should move over us through the day. Weak surface troughing is expected to be along the Southeast coast. Abundant moisture in place from the previous day appears to get nudged to the south with time as drier air moves in from the north. Though, models seem to be keying in on showers across our GA counties in the afternoon. Hence, we went with chance POPs there, and slight chance elsewhere. Models also show increasing instability, so we have a slight chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. If the instability increases more and the sea breeze looks a bit stronger, then we may need to increase both the shower and thunderstorm coverage. Temperatures are expected to be well above normal, but still a few degrees away from setting any records.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. A cold front will slowly approach from the northwest during the middle the week, moving through sometime during the second half of the week. Models still vary on exactly when the front will move through, and the resulting weather before and afterwards. Again, we were forced to go with a blend of the models with POPs no higher than chance. Temperatures will be above normal Thursday, cooling down afterwards.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. To start, showers will develop in the KSAV vicinity until later this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR through this evening. Between 08-14z, the probability for stratus/fog will increase, especially at KSAV. Here, the 18Z TAF indicates a period of IFR visibility, and LIFR ceilings/visibilities are possible. Probabilities for flight restrictions are lower at KCHS late tonight/early Monday, so 18Z TAFs maintain VFR conditions. However, this remains a low confidence forecast. Remain alert for changes to introduce flight restrictions within later KCHS TAFs.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR Monday. Gusty winds possible Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Showers could bring brief flight restrictions Tuesday through Thursday.

MARINE. Through Tonight: East to southeast winds will prevail as high pressures moves offshore the northern Outer Banks. Speeds will generally remain 10-15 kt, highest near the land/sea interface and in Charleston Harbor this afternoon as a sea breeze circulation develops and gusts approaching 20 kt are possible. Seas will average 1-3 ft nearshore waters and 3-5 ft Georgia offshore waters. isolated/scattered showers today should remain limited for far southern sections of AMZ354 and AMZ374.

Monday through Thursday: High pressure will prevail for the first half of this week. Expect gusty winds associated with the sea breeze along the land/sea interface each afternoon through midweek. A cold front is then expected to move through the region towards the end of the week. Overall, winds and waves are expected to stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria throughout the extended marine forecast.

Rip Currents: Morning spectral data from buoys 41004 and 41008 show an underlying 2 ft 13-15 second easterly swell impacting the coastal waters. NWPS and WW4 output shows this swell energy remaining in place through day with only swell heights of 0.5-1 ft making it to the surf zone. Despite astronomical influences, local rip current risk calculations put the risk in the low category for today. If for some reason the swell height in the surf zone reaches 2 ft, then this would tip the risk into the moderate category. Given this is not currently indicated in any of the guidance, a low risk will be maintained.

The combination of a forecasted 1-2 foot swell near 13 seconds, gusty winds nearly onshore, and astronomical influences from the upcoming supermoon could generate rip currents across parts of the coast on Monday. Internal calculations show the best chance is along the Charleston County coast, so we went with a Moderate Risk there.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Tides will approach or exceed minor coastal flood thresholds for the Sunday evening high tide cycle in Charleston Harbor. Will continue to assess the need for a Coastal Flood Advisory for Charleston County.

Higher than normal tides are expected most of this week due to astronomical influences from the upcoming full moon and lunar perigee. Additionally, winds are forecasted to be onshore at times, which would further elevate the tides. Minor coastal flooding is possible.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. SC . None. MARINE . None.

NEAR TERM . SPR SHORT TERM . LONG TERM . AVIATION . SPR MARINE . SPR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHTS1 15 mi56 min E 9.9 G 13 68°F 67°F1019 hPa
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 22 mi66 min ESE 9.7 G 14 67°F 67°F1018.8 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 22 mi74 min E 9.9 G 11 68°F 1019.5 hPa (+0.0)62°F
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 41 mi89 min E 2.9 75°F 1019 hPa56°F
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 47 mi89 min E 8 63°F 1019 hPa57°F

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC8 mi78 minSE 9 G 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F52°F46%1018.6 hPa
Mount Pleasant Regional-Faison Field, SC11 mi19 minN 010.00 miFair72°F55°F57%1018.3 hPa
Moncks Corner Berkeley County, SC14 mi19 minSSE 410.00 miFair73°F51°F47%1017.9 hPa
Summerville Airport, SC18 mi19 minSSW 710.00 miFair77°F44°F32%1017.3 hPa
Charleston Executive Airport, SC21 mi19 minE 8 G 139.00 miFair72°F57°F61%1018.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCHS

Wind History from CHS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10SE9S9S5SE6S3E3SE3SE4SE5CalmCalmCalmE4E4NE4CalmE5E7SE10SE11SE9SE9
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1 day agoNW10W10W10W7W4SW7W5W7W8W5W4W4N4NW4N4NW4NE4NE6NE9NE9N9N1044
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NW8NW9----CalmCalmW6W3CalmW4NW4N5NW3CalmCalmCalmN7N8NW7NW8NW9NW7
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Tide / Current Tables for Back River Reservoir, West Branch, Cooper River, South Carolina
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Back River Reservoir
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:07 AM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:05 PM EDT     1.01 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:40 PM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.80.60.40.1-0.1-0.2-0.10.10.40.70.9110.80.50.30-0.1-0.2-00.30.60.8

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current
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Charleston Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:40 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:07 AM EDT     1.90 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:57 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:13 AM EDT     -2.69 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 01:17 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:38 PM EDT     1.78 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:24 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:39 PM EDT     -2.85 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.80.41.41.91.71.40.9-0.1-1.2-2.1-2.7-2.4-1.5-0.40.81.61.81.51.10.4-0.7-1.8-2.7-2.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.