Thursday, April22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Goose Creek, SC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 7:56PM Thursday April 22, 2021 9:54 AM EDT (13:54 UTC) Moonrise 2:05PMMoonset 3:08AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 719 Am Edt Thu Apr 22 2021
Today..N winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt later this morning, then becoming S 5 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft early.
Tonight..Variable winds less than 5 kt.
Fri..E winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms in the evening, then showers likely with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt.
Sun night..N winds 10 kt.
Mon..NE winds 10 kt.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Mariners are reminded that winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 68 degrees.
AMZ300 719 Am Edt Thu Apr 22 2021
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will prevail through Friday, before a low pressure system impacts the region over the weekend. High pressure will return early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Goose Creek, SC
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location: 33, -79.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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FXUS62 KCHS 221122 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 722 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will prevail through Friday, before a low pressure system impacts the region over the weekend. High pressure will return early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A quick update was issued to remove the Lake Wind Advisory for Lake Moultrie.

Today: The cold front that cleared the coast yesterday evening is now well offshore and shows up as a well-defined fine line feature in GOES-E night fog channels. Dry, gusty conditions will persist this morning before the intensify of cold air advection quickly wanes. High pressure will build across the Deep South today and across the Southeast U.S. tonight as a fairly zonal mid-level flow lingers across the southern half of the CONUS. Although H8 temperatures will recover back into the +1-5C range by late afternoon, it will be a considerably cooler day than what was experienced Wednesday when highs reached into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Full-sun thickness schemes only support highs in the lower-mid 60s across the region, but with a steadily increasing Spring sun angle and full-insolation prevailing, anticipate highs should still be able to warm into the upper 60s to around 70 away from the beaches. A weak sea breeze circulation is likely to form along the beaches by late afternoon which will help to keep highs there limited to the lower 60s.

Tonight: The boundary layer will decouple quickly after sunset as high pressure shifts over the area. With low dewpoints and clear skies expected to dominate, temperatures should fall quickly as strong radiational cooling prevails. Generally favored the cooler side of guidance given recent model performance in dry, radiational cooling regimes, but did not go quite as cold some some of the guidance would suggest given this would be a rather large jump from yesterday afternoon's forecast cycle. The updated forecast shows lows ranging from the upper 30s inland with lower-mid 50s along at the beaches, Downtown Charleston and around the Santee-Cooper lakes, but would not be surprised if these needed to be trended down with later update cycles. Frost is not a big concern at this time with lows only dropping into the upper 30s, although some very patchy frost can not be completely ruled out in some of the normally colder spots in the Francis Marion National Forest.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. High pressure centered over the mid-Atlantic states Friday morning will transition offshore through the day in advance of the next weather system. Expect increasing cloud cover with highs around 5 degrees below normal, mainly in the lower to middle 70s. Mild temperatures for Friday night with warm air advection. Lows will range from the mid 50s across the interior to low 60s near the coast.

The focus of the forecast will be on the weekend system as it brings the only rain chances of the week. A potent shortwave and associated surface low will lift out of the Southern Plains Friday night and track towards the East Coast on Saturday. As this occurs, the forecast area will become positioned within the warm sector following a warm front lifting north through the area. A trailing cold front will eventually pass through Saturday night. Strong moisture transport will bring PWats to over 1.5 inches, which is well above late April climatology. This deep moisture will combine with large scale forcing for ascent from shortwave energy and upper divergence to support increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances peak 90-100% in the afternoon and evening. Storm total rainfall is forecast to be between 1-2 inches, highest across the interior. Given the dry antecedent conditions, the area should be able to handle these amounts and the flooding threat will be limited. However, certainly could see some ponding on roads in urban areas within any pockets of heavier rainfall.

Attention then turns to the potential for severe weather. Wind fields are certainly supportive of storm organization with shear of over 50 knots. Latest model guidance is showing the airmass becoming weakly to moderately unstable with CAPE generally 500 to 1500 J/kg, highest across our Georgia zones. All hazards will be possible, including damaging wind gusts, large hail, and even isolated tornadoes given low level helicity values and nice curving hodographs. This threat remains highlighted within the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Even outside of showers/thunderstorms, winds will get gusty, generally peaking in the 25-30 mph range. Conditions could become supportive of a Lake Wind Advisory over Lake Moultrie. Otherwise, temperatures are forecast to average in the mid to upper 70s.

Rain chances will decrease Saturday night, especially after midnight, as convective activity pushes offshore. Low pressure will continue to lift northeast away from the area on Sunday, allowing high pressure to build in. A dry forecast has been maintained.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Models remain in very good agreement for next week. High pressure will build over the region and eventually transition into the western Atlantic by the middle of the week. Subsidence and dry air will maintain quiet weather and minimal rain chances. Temperatures will be near to above normal, warming with time, as heights build aloft.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. VFR.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible Saturday into Saturday night as a low pressure system impacts the area. Gusty winds also expected on Saturday.

MARINE. The Small Craft Advisory for Charleston Harbor has been cancelled.

Today: Cold air advection is peaking now and will slowly wane this morning. Early morning observations show winds are still well above Small Craft Advisory thresholds across all waters and flags remain in place for all but Charleston Harbor. Seas are being limited by offshore trajectories, ranging from 2-4 ft nearshore with 4-6 ft offshore. Seas will subside to 1-3 ft this afternoon. North winds will become onshore later this afternoon as a weak sea breeze tries to develop. Speeds will

Tonight: There are no concerns with fairly low winds expected as high pressure traverses the local marine area. Seas will average 1-3 ft.

Friday through Tuesday: No marine concerns for Friday as high pressure remains the dominant feature. Winds and seas will then increase Saturday into Saturday night as a low pressure system impacts the area. Small Craft Advisories appear likely for most, if not all waters, including the Charleston Harbor. Conditions will improve on Sunday. High pressure will return for early to middle of next week, with no additional headlines expected.

FIRE WEATHER. Dewpoints are expected to mix out into the upper teens inland to the mid-upper 20s at the beaches this afternoon. This coupled with highs in the upper 60s/near 70 will support minimum RH values 17-22% except a bit higher along the Georgia coast where dewpoints should hold a bit higher due to more of an onshore component this morning. Some RH recovery will occur along the coast as a weak sea breeze develops. Per coordination with state and federal agencies yesterday, a Fire Danger Statement will be maintained for all but the Coastal McIntosh and Coastal Liberty zones where RH will be higher than 25%. Thankfully, winds will remain rather light this afternoon keeping the risk for dangerous fire behavior somewhat tempered. Critical to near critical RH of 25-30% is expected Friday afternoon.

CLIMATE.

Record Lows for 23 April: KCHS: 39/1993 KCXM: 44/1927 KSAV: 38/1993

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. SC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ350- 352-354-374.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHTS1 15 mi55 min N 13 G 17 52°F 67°F1023.5 hPa (+2.3)
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 22 mi47 min NNE 21 G 29 48°F 67°F1022.7 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 22 mi55 min N 14 G 18 48°F 1023.6 hPa (+2.3)
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 41 mi70 min N 4.1 48°F 1024 hPa27°F
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 47 mi70 min N 7 46°F 1022 hPa25°F

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC8 mi59 minN 1310.00 miFair48°F23°F37%1023.2 hPa
Mount Pleasant Regional-Faison Field, SC11 mi60 minNNW 1010.00 miFair48°F23°F37%1023 hPa
Moncks Corner Berkeley County, SC14 mi60 minNE 1110.00 miFair46°F25°F43%1023.4 hPa
Summerville Airport, SC18 mi3 hrsN 010.00 miFair41°F27°F57%1022 hPa
Charleston Executive Airport, SC21 mi60 minN 10 G 179.00 miFair48°F23°F37%1023.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCHS

Wind History from CHS (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Back River Reservoir, West Branch, Cooper River, South Carolina
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Back River Reservoir
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Thu -- 04:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:07 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:02 AM EDT     0.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:47 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:41 PM EDT     0.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.60.60.60.60.70.70.80.90.90.90.80.70.60.60.50.50.50.60.70.80.80.8

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current
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Charleston Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:16 AM EDT     1.42 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:49 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:20 AM EDT     -1.95 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:31 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:48 PM EDT     1.31 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:23 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:48 PM EDT     -1.95 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:46 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.41.30.90.5-0.1-0.9-1.6-1.9-1.8-1.2-0.40.41.11.310.70.3-0.5-1.2-1.8-1.9-1.5-0.7

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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