Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Poway, CA

DISCUSSION
FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

What happened to the coastal low clouds? Only a few patches developed overnight. Our best guess is there was a weakened marine inversion combined with some weak offshore flow. This on the backside of the low pressure trough taking forever to move completely out of our region. Today we get a fleeting ridge of high pressure aloft, which we'll feel with mostly sunny skies and higher temperatures. Although there is some residual moisture at mountain top level that will produce quite a few cumulus clouds over the mountains today. A weak low pressure trough develops Wednesday and Thursday right over SoCal. It will serve to bring cooler weather by a couple degrees, and also help rebuild the marine layer seemingly into a coastal low cloud forecast we can count on. There is also some instability over the high desert indicating some remotely possible thunderstorms Thursday, which we'll keep an eye on. Breezy onshore winds will increase through mountain passes and into deserts each afternoon and evening.
Isolated pockets, such as through and east of the San Gorgonio Pass, should get gusts at or above 40 mph. Another fleeting ridge on Friday brings slightly warmer weather and slightly less coastal cloudiness. Then a big trough develops and deepens as it arrives in SoCal Saturday. Probably the biggest impact will be strong winds in all areas, but particularly in the mountains, deserts and coastal waters. It will also bring cold air, destabilizing the atmosphere, and not a lot of moisture but enough for showers. And snow showers for the mountains as the snow level drops quickly on Sunday (currently showing down to around 5,000 feet). There won't be a lot of precipitation, but some. While confidence is high in the much cooler weather and strong winds, confidence is lower in the precipitation amounts. Confidence is growing in the timing of the arrival. Saturday night through Sunday looks like the stormiest time. Less confidence on when the storm departs on Monday...ish. Tis the season for closed low pressure systems that give forecasters fits, but this upcoming system doesn't look as capricious as usual. Next Monday or Tuesday a warming and drying trend appears to get underway.

AVIATION
291600Z
Coasts/Valleys
Patchy BKN-OVC clouds with bases of 1500- 2000 ft MSL possible through 17Z. BKN-OVC clouds will return to the coast 01 to 04Z Wed. Coverage is expected to be more widespread tonight into Wed, filling in the western valleys. Bases will be in the 600-1000 ft range. Vis restrictions are expected where low clouds intersect higher coastal terrain. Low confidence (25 percent)
of low clouds reaching KONT. If low clouds did reach KONT, would occur after 10Z Wed. Low clouds will scatter out 16-18Z Wed.

Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear skies with unrestricted VIS will prevail through Wed morning.

MARINE
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Friday. Gusty winds will develop over the coastal waters this weekend, with strongest winds Saturday night and Sunday. Peak gusts of 25 to 32 kt expected. Gale force winds are possible, with a 30 percent chance of winds reaching at least 34 kt in the outer coastal waters near San Clemente Island Saturday night into Sunday morning.

BEACHES
Elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet with sets to 7 feet will occur through Wednesday. Highest surf will occur on south facing beaches today.
Strong rip currents are expected.

SKYWARN
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for Orange County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.