Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rancho Santa Fe, CA

DISCUSSION
FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

SHORT TERM
Besides some very thin cirrus (upper level clouds), clear skies are present across the region, with afternoon high temperatures near to slightly above average. Excellent weather, in this forecaster's opinion, to eat far too much chocolate. The marine cloud layer will redevelop late this evening, likely patchy at first before becoming more widespread in the small hours of Monday morning. These clouds will clear Monday morning at a similar time to this morning, followed by another mostly sunny day.

For the next week, weakly cyclonic flow will be in place aloft, with a series of weak shortwaves bringing cooling temperatures, a deepening marine layer, and brisker afternoon and evening breezes (mostly in the mountains and deserts). Monday will see temperatures similar to today, with slight cooling along the coast and slight warming for the deserts, and stronger afternoon and evening breezes compared to today in the mountains and deserts.
Rinse and repeat Tuesday with another degree or two drop in high temperatures for the coasts and valleys, and degree or two rise for the mountains and deserts.

The cooling trend that started along the coast will then spread inland for the rest of the week, with slightly to about 10 degree below average temperatures through most of the region by Thu-Fri.
Marine layer low clouds will get progressively deeper and further inland each night, with areas of drizzle under the marine layer possible (most likely early Friday morning) but with otherwise very likely dry weather. Afternoon and evening breezes will strengthen slightly again in the mountains and deserts mid to late week.

LONG TERM
Some degree of large-scale cyclonic flow continues to be likely for at least the first part of the weekend, meaning cooler temperatures would continue. Global ensemble members are split on when a low pressure system will move into (and out of) the Great Basin. The earlier/faster tracking models indicate ridging (and warming) starting Sunday, while others indicate continued cool weather with a deeper marine layer through the weekend and perhaps Monday. Models are in better agreement in at least a weak ridge with warmer temperatures locally by early the next week.

AVIATION
202000Z
Coasts/Valleys
FEW-SCT low clouds 900-1500 ft MSL this afternoon with FEW high clouds at 25000 ft MSL. Widespread low cloud coverage is expected tonight. Low clouds will return to coastal areas and spread into the western valleys 02-06Z Mon. Bases are expected to be 700-1200 ft MSL. There is a 20 percent chance of low clouds reaching KONT tonight, most likely 12Z or later. Local vis restrictions 2-4SM near higher coastal terrain and in the valleys.
Low clouds and vis restrictions expected to clear to the beaches 16- 18Z Mon.

Mountains/Deserts...Clear skies with unrestricted VIS prevailing through Monday.

MARINE
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Friday.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...None.