Saturday, July4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
The Colony, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 8:41PM Saturday July 4, 2020 12:46 AM CDT (05:46 UTC) Moonrise 7:34PMMoonset 4:43AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near The Colony, TX
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location: 33.08, -96.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 040510 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1210 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

SHORT TERM. /NEW/ /Overnight through Sunday/

With the center of the mid level ridge axis to our west through the remainder of the holiday weekend, we'll continue to see scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, generally across the eastern half of the CWA where better moisture will be. The remainder of tonight should be precipitation free, although we'll be watching a cluster of thunderstorms moving south through Oklahoma. These may approach the Red River by morning. Otherwise, a fairly stout westward moving outflow boundary moved through the Metroplex earlier and temperatures have cooled into the lower 70s across our eastern counties, while mid/upper 70s continue elsewhere.

Saturday's thunderstorm chances will largely be dependent upon a slowly southward moving frontal boundary which is currently across central Oklahoma into central Arkansas. This boundary has been quasi-stationary but should get a little southward push aided by convection and a weak disturbance moving through the Southern Plains. Some scattered activity left over from overnight thunderstorms may spread across the Red River during the morning hours, but a greater coverage of storms is expected again during the late afternoon/evening. We'll keep PoPs generally confined to areas along and east of I-35 ranging from 20% in the Metroplex to 40% across our eastern counties.

A persistent pool of moisture and lack of subsidence should allow for additional scattered thunderstorms mainly across our eastern counties again on Sunday afternoon.

High temperatures will top out in the upper 90s to 100 degrees again today in many locations with cooler readings across our eastern counties. We should see highs a few degrees cooler on Sunday as that weak front tries to push westward. It should be accompanied by an increase in cloud cover as well.

Dunn

LONG TERM. /Issued 248 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020/ /Sunday onward/

12Z 500 mb analysis reveals an omega block pattern continuing over much of North America. An upper-level low is centered over British Columbia, with another upper-level low centered over northern Quebec. In between, a highly amplified ridge stretches from the Texas Big Bend, through the Great Plains, to the Canadian Shield. This ridge will remain over us for much of the extended forecast period, but subtle movements in the axis of the ridge will result in some slight variations in the day-to-day forecast details.

Through the weekend, the axis of the ridge will remain to the west. This will keep the window open for a few diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms, with the greatest chances being over our eastern counties. Coverage will be isolated to scattered at best however, as there will be little in the way of surface boundaries present. While wind shear will be weak, large instability, large temperature-dewpoint spreads beneath the LCL, and seasonally high precipitable water values will be present. This means that while widespread severe weather is not anticipated, some of the stronger thunderstorms will be capable of damaging outflow wind gusts, torrential downpours, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes. These types of thunderstorms do not typically result in an all-day washout, but anyone participating in outdoor activities this holiday weekend should be prepared to move indoors if skies threaten. Outside of thunderstorms, hot and humid conditions will persist.

Our one shot at more widespread convection will come late Monday night and into Tuesday morning. The upper-level ridge axis will retreat well to the west, placing our region under northwest flow. The major global forecast models also indicate a weak vorticity max moving from northwest to southeast across western Oklahoma and into North Texas during this timeframe. This type of setup can often result in the development of a nocturnal MCS that initiates over Oklahoma, then tracks towards and south of the Red River late at night. Models were not overly aggressive with the QPF forecast, so opted to keep PoPs in the Chance range for now. We will have to see if the longer range CAMs begin picking up on this over the weekend.

Beyond mid-week, the ridge will build back over us with a vengeance. The ECMWF shows incredible 600+ dam 500 mb heights over the Southwest, with the ridge expanding over much of the Sun Belt region. This will set the stage for above normal temperatures towards the end of the week, with thunderstorm chances diminishing greatly. 81 days until Autumnal Equinox.

Godwin

AVIATION. /NEW/ /6Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with light southerly winds. Localized outflow boundaries from afternoon showers and storms to the east could result in temporary wind shifts through Saturday evening.

Dunn

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 99 77 94 77 / 20 20 20 10 10 Waco 74 102 75 98 75 / 0 0 5 5 10 Paris 72 89 71 89 73 / 20 50 50 30 10 Denton 75 98 74 93 74 / 20 20 20 10 10 McKinney 75 96 74 93 74 / 20 30 40 10 10 Dallas 78 99 78 95 78 / 20 20 20 10 10 Terrell 74 98 75 94 75 / 30 30 30 10 10 Corsicana 74 99 76 95 75 / 20 20 30 10 10 Temple 73 101 74 100 74 / 0 0 5 5 10 Mineral Wells 72 100 73 93 73 / 10 5 0 5 10

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dallas / Addison Airport, TX8 mi51 minSSE 910.00 miFair81°F68°F67%1014.9 hPa
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, TX14 mi53 minSSE 710.00 miA Few Clouds79°F71°F77%1012.8 hPa
Dallas Love Field, TX15 mi53 minS 610.00 miA Few Clouds82°F68°F63%1013.1 hPa
Denton Enterprise Airport, TX17 mi53 minSSE 710.00 miFair82°F66°F60%1013.1 hPa
McKinney - McKinney National Airport, TX18 mi53 minSE 310.00 miFair77°F70°F79%1013.3 hPa
Fort Worth, Fort Worth Alliance Airport, TX23 mi53 minSE 510.00 miA Few Clouds81°F69°F67%1012.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KADS

Wind History from ADS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4E6E4SE4S4S7S4SW5SW5W5SW4CalmCalm--S4CalmCalmNW3E9E14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.