Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
The Colony, TX

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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 5:22PM Monday December 9, 2019 9:50 AM CST (15:50 UTC) Moonrise 3:52PMMoonset 4:38AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near The Colony, TX
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location: 33.08, -96.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 091215 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 615 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

AVIATION. /12Z TAFS/

Main concerns through the period will be a strong cold front which will bring areas of rain and lowering cigs to the region tonight into early Tuesday morning and a low chance for some wintry precipitation.

Southerly winds prevail this morning under a thick canopy of high clouds. There are some lower clouds across east and southeast Texas, but these should primarily remain east of the major airports. An area of low pressure is located over northern Oklahoma and will move east during the day today. This will drag a strong cold front through the region and result in winds becoming more westerly later this morning then northerly by afternoon. Cigs will primarily be VFR through the day, although will lower through the afternoon.

By tonight, as a strong upper disturbance approaches, areas of rain will develop. This should initially be west of the I-35 corridor, but will overspread the region late tonight. Cigs will likely lower to MVFR during the late overnight hours with areas of rain overspreading the airports after 3 am. A further lowering of cigs is expected through sunrise Tuesday. There is a chance for some snow to mix in with rain in the 4-8 am timeframe, mainly northwest of the Metroplex. At this time, we've kept any mention of snow out of the DFW TAF, but a brief mix is certainly in the realm of possibility. We'll include -RASN in at AFW from 11Z through the end of the current TAF period at 12Z, with the expectation that any wintry mix should end by 14Z. If snow does indeed mix in with rain around sunrise, then IFR cigs/vis would be likely. A rapid north to south drying is expected through late morning on Tuesday and cigs will quickly improve to VFR by midday.

At Waco, similar trends are expected, but the northerly wind shift will occur around 22Z this afternoon. Areas of rain will overspread the airport after 5 am. No wintry precipitation is expected at Waco.

Dunn

DISCUSSION. /Issued 313 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019/

Key Messages: (1) A strong cold front will pass through later today, bringing much colder temperatures, and increasing rain chances. High temperatures will occur this morning, with much cooler temperatures by evening commute. Plan accordingly!

(2) A transition to a rain/snow mix is likely to occur early Tuesday morning for parts of North Texas, including the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. We are not anticipating any wintry precipitation in Killeen, Waco, or Temple at this time.

(3) Little to no accumulation is expected for most locations; however, localized areas could see accumulations of around one inch on elevated surfaces and in grassy areas.

(4) While impacts for most locations will be minimal to none, some minor travel issues could arise where heavier snow does occur.

GOES-16 water vapor channel imagery and 500 mb objective analysis show a deep upper-level trough over much of the western U.S. The trough axis as of this writing lies along a line from Bismarck, ND to Denver, CO to San Diego, CA. The southern end of the upper- level trough appears to be lagging somewhat behind the longwave trough, and is partially detached from the upper-level flow. Strong ascent is beginning along the east side of this trough, with Pacific moisture streaming into the southern tier states. At the surface, a broad area of low pressure is noted over the Central Plains, with a cold front extending along a line from Oklahoma City, OK to Trinidad, CO.

Strong height falls ahead of the approaching upper-level trough will drive a cold front across North and Central Texas on Monday afternoon. The cold front should enter our northwestern counties later this morning, reach the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex by around noon, Killeen/Temple/Waco mid-afternoon, and exit our southeastern counties by evening. Strong cold air advection will result in rapidly falling temperatures. While temperatures are in the low to mid 60s this morning, high temperatures will likely occur around noon. By sundown, temperatures will be in the 50s across much of North Texas, with temperatures dropping into the 40s along the Red River. Gusty northerly winds of 15-20 mph will result in wind chills in the 40s. This is a long way of saying don't let this morning's warm temperatures fool you! It will be much chillier by evening commute, so make sure to take an extra jacket with you if heading out.

Going into the overnight hours, the upper-level trough will continue its trek towards the Lone Star State, reaching the Big Bend region by Tuesday morning. The combination of a 120+ KT jet streak overspreading the region, strong differential cyclonic vorticity advection, and deep frontogenesis sloping northwest into the cold air will support powerful ascent across the region. A steady stream of Pacific moisture in place combined with this ascent will allow for widespread precipitation to develop late Monday evening, initially as cold rain.

Things get interesting as we head into Tuesday morning. Forecast soundings from the GFS and HRRR show very strong ascent within the dendritic growth zone (i.e. the -10C to -20C layer), along with a very saturated air mass. This will easily support ice crystal formation within the cloud layer. Beneath this layer, the column should be sufficiently humid to allow precipitation to continue reaching the ground, despite the fact a little dry air could start working into North Texas. The only question that exists is whether temperatures will be sufficiently cool to allow precipitation to remain frozen all the way to the ground. While the synoptic freezing line will likely still be in Oklahoma, dynamic cooling from the strong vertical ascent, as well as evaporative cooling processes should be enough to allow for a rain/snow mix across parts of North Texas. The transition looks like it would mostly likely occur from west to east, roughly along a line from Comanche to Stephenville to Dallas/Fort Worth.

Surface temperatures should remain above freezing, which would prevent significant accumulations from occurring, but there are two caveats worth mentioning. The first is that when temperatures are just above freezing, snowflakes can stick together, forming large "clumps" of snow. Secondly, if snow were to come down rather quickly, it could begin to accumulate on elevated surfaces (i.e. bridges, overpasses, and rooftops) and grassy areas. This will probably not be the case in most locations, but we will certainly have to be on alert for any enhanced snow bands that do develop, which unfortunately is very difficult to forecast at this range. Snowfall forecast products from the GFS and HRRR using the Kuchera snow ratio method both suggest the most likely corridor for heavier snow would be from Dallas/Fort Worth to points southwest, but notably, the GFS snow depth product (which takes into ground temperature, melting processes, etc.) shows very little accumulation. For this reason, we do not plan any winter weather headlines (i.e. advisories/watches) at this time. Precipitation should come to an end by Tuesday afternoon across the CWA, with a cold and dry night to follow.

So what does this all mean for you the citizen? Most likely, we'll just see a few snowflakes mixing in with rain on Tuesday morning. It will be mildly exciting, but most likely not enough to cause any significant disruptions. Having said that, the potential does exist for some locally enhanced snowfall, with maximum totals in a few spots potentially approaching or exceeding an inch. This means you will want to keep an eye on the forecast. Check back later this evening, and get up early on Tuesday to see what's going on. Winter weather is notoriously difficult to forecast, even with the major technological advances in the last couple of decades. It's even harder in these "marginal" setups that often occur in North Texas. The best course of action is to be prepared for the "reasonable high end scenario", which would include the possibility of some light snow accumulations that could result in some minor impacts to travel.

For the rest of your week, look for continued near to below normal temperatures. Beyond Tuesday, the weather looks to be dry, with the next chance for rain coming early next week.

Godwin

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 35 45 30 53 / 10 90 80 5 0 Waco 76 36 44 28 54 / 0 80 100 5 5 Paris 68 35 43 27 51 / 10 60 70 0 0 Denton 67 34 46 27 52 / 10 70 60 0 0 McKinney 69 34 44 27 52 / 10 80 70 5 0 Dallas 71 35 45 30 53 / 10 90 80 5 0 Terrell 71 35 44 27 53 / 10 90 90 5 0 Corsicana 75 38 43 30 52 / 5 80 100 5 5 Temple 80 38 44 29 54 / 0 80 100 5 5 Mineral Wells 68 32 44 25 52 / 10 70 60 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dallas / Addison Airport, TX8 mi64 minSSW 510.00 miClear64°F53°F68%1008.5 hPa
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, TX14 mi58 minWSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F52°F59%1007.3 hPa
Dallas Love Field, TX15 mi58 minSW 710.00 miOvercast64°F54°F70%1008.1 hPa
Denton Enterprise Airport, TX17 mi58 minSW 1110.00 miFair66°F48°F54%1007.7 hPa
McKinney - McKinney National Airport, TX18 mi58 minSW 810.00 miA Few Clouds67°F52°F59%1008.1 hPa
Fort Worth, Fort Worth Alliance Airport, TX23 mi58 minSW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F50°F53%1007.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KADS

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.