Friday, January22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
The Colony, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 5:51PM Friday January 22, 2021 7:38 PM CST (01:38 UTC) Moonrise 1:02PMMoonset 2:05AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near The Colony, TX
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location: 33.08, -96.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 230035 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 635 PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021

. New Short Term, Aviation .

SHORT TERM. /NEW/ /Tonight through Saturday/

The surface front is now south of the region but the 850mb front is laid up near the Red River. Zonal flow aloft continues with weak ridging starting to develop as one disturbance leaves the area and the next system digs down the West Coast (This is Sunday's system; see discussion below). However, what is happening in the lowest 1.5 km of the atmosphere is what is really going to drive our weather for the next 30 hours.

Weak warm air advection continues along the sloped frontal zone between the surface and 850mb. Thus, our region will stay under cloud cover through Saturday. The exception to this is very near the Red River where some drier air is currently eroding the clouds near the 850mb front. However, cloud cover is expected to redevelop along the Red River overnight. The overrunning of the shallow surface frontal layer will result in the redevelopment of fog this evening and overnight. I have expanded the fog mention to include much of the area along and west of Interstate 35 as warm air advection looks to increase in this area later tonight. Along with the fog, some drizzle will likely also develop. For the most part, visibilities are expected to remain above 1/2 mile tonight, but isolated/localized pockets of dense fog may occur. At this time we are not planning a Dense Fog Advisory.

The fog and drizzle will persist through midday Saturday and then hopefully dissipate. Later in the day, the surface front will start to return north bringing east to southeast winds back to the region, along with increasing dewpoints. Despite the cloud cover, warming of temperatures will occur, even if it holds off until later in the day. I lowered the daytime high temps down a tad, but am still expecting a range from the lower 50s in the northeast to lower 60s in the south and southwest.

JLDunn

LONG TERM. /Issued 300 PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021/ /Next Week/

The upper trough digging south into California will maintain its equatorward jet throughout the weekend. As a result, guidance is in fairly good agreement with its evolution through the Desert Southwest on Sunday, setting the stage for our next rain event. A surge of low-level moisture from the Gulf will push dew points into the 60s deep into North Texas by Sunday afternoon. However, these unseasonably buoyant surface parcels may initially be capped by warm/dry southwest flow (above 850mb) downstream of the approaching trough. Considerable cloud cover would tend to inhibit surface destabilization, but the low-level warm advection will allow afternoon temperatures to climb 10-15 degrees above normal. Coupled with the rich boundary layer moisture, MLCAPE values may reach or exceed 1000 J/kg. As mid-level lift ensues late in the day, the cap should steadily erode, and some of this instability will be realized with thunderstorms increasing in areal coverage into the evening hours.

Increasing mid-level winds will enhance the speed shear Sunday evening. While this would suggest updraft maintenance, 700mb winds topping 50kts may tend to separate updrafts from the boundary layer parcels feeding them. These speedy cells could still produce gusty winds and small hail as the warm/moist surface layer maintains a considerable amount of instability well past nightfall. However, the main focus for severe weather will be an organizing linear complex along an advancing cold front. The mechanical forcing of the line should obliterate any remaining inhibition. The primary hazard with the line will be the downward transport of the vigorous winds within 10kft of the surface, but there may also be an attendant QLCS tornado threat. While the crucial mesoscale features are currently beyond the meso time scale, an associated surface low is progged to transit North Texas between the I-20 corridor and the Red River. This would result in a distinct warm frontal boundary, its interactions with the squall line representing the primary focus for tornadic potential.

The cold front will sweep through the region from east to west Monday morning, bringing an end to the event. This Pacific front will usher in markedly drier air, but the weak cold advection and downslope postfrontal winds on Monday will only shave a few degrees off daytime temperatures. Low rain chances will return as a potent shortwave swings through the Central Plains on Wednesday. Its associated cold front will bring us the coldest day of the week on Thursday, a light freeze in the west and the only below normal high temperatures of the week. A warming trend Friday and Saturday will come with rain chances as the next Pacific trough approaches.

25

AVIATION. /NEW/ /00Z TAFS/

MVFR and IFR ceiling conditions continue to persist across nearly all of North and Central Texas. The surface front is now south of the area, but the 850mb front remains near the Red River. This means that at least some warm air advection over the shallow frontal layer will keep the region encased in low clouds through the night. Between 03-05Z, expect the ceilings to lower back to IFR with the gradual development of areas of fog and drizzle through the night. KACT will have the greatest category impacts with lower cigs and lower visibilities, but for the most part, visibilities should be above 1SM tonight. All sites should see improvement to the fog and drizzle by midday on Saturday but expect the ceilings to hover in IFR and low MVFR categories for much of the day. The surface winds will remain north to northeasterly tonight, and then gradually turn to the east and southeast by Saturday afternoon as the surface front starts to lift north as a warm front. Another lowering of the ceilings and development of fog and drizzle is likely Saturday night.

JLDunn

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Dallas-Ft. Worth 49 57 53 69 53 / 5 10 30 80 90 Waco 50 62 56 71 54 / 5 10 30 70 90 Paris 43 51 45 65 53 / 0 0 40 80 100 Denton 46 56 50 69 48 / 5 10 20 70 90 McKinney 46 54 50 68 52 / 5 5 30 80 90 Dallas 49 58 55 70 55 / 5 10 30 80 90 Terrell 47 57 51 68 53 / 5 5 40 80 90 Corsicana 51 61 56 71 57 / 10 5 40 80 90 Temple 51 62 57 72 54 / 0 5 40 60 80 Mineral Wells 47 58 53 70 48 / 0 10 10 60 80

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dallas / Addison Airport, TX8 mi51 minENE 588.00 miOvercast and Windy52°F46°F82%1017.9 hPa
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, TX14 mi45 minNNE 610.00 miOvercast51°F46°F83%1017.2 hPa
Dallas Love Field, TX15 mi45 minE 510.00 miOvercast52°F45°F77%1017.6 hPa
Denton Enterprise Airport, TX17 mi45 minNE 310.00 miOvercast51°F44°F77%1017.8 hPa
McKinney - McKinney National Airport, TX18 mi45 minENE 310.00 miOvercast50°F45°F83%1018.8 hPa
Fort Worth, Fort Worth Alliance Airport, TX23 mi45 minN 410.00 miOvercast51°F44°F77%1017.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KADS

Wind History from ADS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5SE6CalmCalmE3E3NE4NE7NE6--NE6E6E6
G15
NE8NE8NE8E6NE7--NE6NE6NE4NE6NE5
1 day agoS5S6S6S6SW6SW4W3S3Calm--S8S4S6S5S5S5E5SE6S3S6W4CalmCalmNE4
2 days agoN7N10N7N7N8N9NE7NE5NE5--N6N3NE7CalmCalmSE5CalmCalmW4NW3NW6N5CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




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