LONG TERM
/Issued 332 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024/ Update:

No significant changes have been made to the long term forecast with this afternoon's update. Optimal boundary layer decoupling Sunday night will allow for the coolest morning in the forecast over the next week, with lows most likely dropping into the 50s.

Tropical development is favored in the Gulf with the low pressure most likely to gradually track northward along or near the Texas Coast over the next several days. While the increase in moisture will aid in rain chances across Central and East Texas in the mid to late week, heavy rainfall and any associated impacts are expected to remain outside of the forecast area. Most likely rain amounts through this week are ~0.10" to 0.50" primarily for southern Central/East Texas, with other portions expected to be all or mostly rain-free.

Gordon

Previous Discussion: /Next Week/

The coolest morning of this early-season frontal intrusion will be on Monday when clear skies combine with light winds and low humidity. Precipitable water values will reach their postfrontal minimum under 1/2 inch, the driest column since spring and among the lowest on record for this early in the season. This will maximize radiational cooling, allowing some low-lying spots to dip into the 40s. Even DFW Airport could see temperatures fall below 60F. In the last 3 decades, there have only been 4 years during which DFW has fallen into the 50s this early in the season.
Despite the cool start to the day and lingering easterly and northeasterly winds, abundant sunshine and an unseasonably dry boundary layer should allow Monday's high temperatures to exceed Sunday's, albeit by a small margin.

This warming trend will reach its peak on Tuesday when daytime temperatures across Northeast Texas may exceed seasonal normals.
Increasing cloud cover and the return of rain chances will restrain daytime temperatures the remainder of the week, but as Gulf moisture also returns, overnight/morning temperatures will be above normal. Texas will be underneath a col between a ridge off the West Coast and another over Florida. The subtropical jet will guide a mid-level disturbance from Mexico into this weakness aloft. The resulting depression will linger overhead, maintaining a period of unsettled weather. The main corridor of moist advection and lift will be confined to the Gulf Coast, with a sharp moisture gradient across our region. As a result, the rain chances mid to late week will be primarily across Central and East Texas.

25

AVIATION
/NEW/ /00Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with gusty north winds diminishing this evening. Wind direction will become more northeasterly late tonight and Sunday. Winds will generally be 10 kt or less on Sunday with no significant aviation concerns expected.

Dunn

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 61 83 59 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 58 83 55 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 55 82 52 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 57 83 55 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 56 83 55 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 61 84 59 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 57 83 54 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 59 84 56 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 59 84 55 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 5 Mineral Wells 57 83 55 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.