Sunrise 6:46 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 7:06 PM   Moonset 5:31 AM

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FXUS64 KFWD 232335 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 635 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Through Wednesday Evening/

A dryline to the west and a stalling front along the Red River will both provide focus for isolated thunderstorms over the next 36 hours. The dryline storms which developed over the past few hours will remain primarily west of the region, but a few may reach our far western zones before dissipating. Young and Stephens Counties are hence within the eastern bounds of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 132, which is in effect until 10PM. Large hail and damaging winds would both be possible for any storm that reaches Breckenridge, Graham and surrounding areas. A strong cap and strengthening ridge aloft will likely shut off convection for areas farther east.

The front will become the focus for development overnight into Wednesday when a weak disturbance rounds the northern flank of the ridge aloft. Most of the convection will be elevated north of the surface front, keeping the majority of the overnight/Wednesday activity in Oklahoma. The northern zones may still experience the southern-most of these showers and storms, and will thus maintain chance to slight chance POPs for areas generally along and north of Highway 380 starting tonight. A few of these storms could be strong with hail and gusty winds.

Otherwise, a warming trend will continue along with increasing humidity as south winds draw Gulf moisture north through the region. Winds, low clouds and dewpoints in the 60s will keep tonight much warmer than previous nights, with lows in the 60s expected area-wide. Tomorrow's highs may be a touch warmer, ranging from the upper 70s in the northeast to the lower and middle 80s out west.

30

LONG TERM
/Issued 240 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/ /Thursday through Tuesday/

The latter half of week through the weekend will be very warm, humid and unsettled with multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms.

A strong low level warm air advection pattern will remain in place Thursday ahead of a deep upper trough over the Desert Southwest.
Subtle shortwave energy emerging out of the base of the main trough may spark a few showers and thunderstorms across the northwest and northern zones through the day Thursday while the remainder of the forecast area will stay capped and rain-free. The only exception will be a few warm air advection sprinkles or light showers. Storm chances will increase Thursday night once the upper trough lifts towards the Central Plains, dragging a dryline and weak front into the western CWA Some storms may become strong to severe, especially across the western zones where shear and instability will be the most favorable. Storms will progress eastward across the region Friday with the passing trough axis.
There is a medium chance for strong to severe storms on Friday, especially east of the I-35 corridor during the afternoon where the air will be the most unstable. There will be a lull in precipitation Friday night, but another upper low will move quickly on heels of the departing system, bringing rain/storm chances to the region just in time for the weekend. This second system will follow a similar track as the late week system, with storm chances increasing from west to east Saturday and decreasing in similar fashion on Sunday with the arrival of a weak cold front. Some strong to severe storms will be possible given the projected shear and instability. The cold front will likely stall across the CWA Sunday night through Monday, warranting at least some low PoPs. Rain chances will temporarily end or decrease significantly Tuesday with brief ridging aloft, but the active split flow pattern will likely persist through the end of April.
The progressive nature of these system should keep the overall flood threat low, but recent heavy rainfall and some rivers currently near flood stage could result in some localized flooding issues.

Temperatures Thursday through Tuesday will be near or slightly above seasonal normals with highs ranging from the upper 70s to middle 80s. Lows will stay generally in the 60s.

79

AVIATION
/NEW/ /00Z TAFs/

Low clouds have lifted to VFR and will likely dissipate around sunset. MVFR ceilings will return overnight as Gulf moisture surges north. Conditions may occasionally drop into IFR Wednesday morning, so will include a TEMPO group for IFR ceilings from 13-16Z. Conditions will improve to VFR early Wednesday afternoon.
South winds will not be as strong on Wednesday, likely remaining 10-15kt.

30


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 65 81 68 81 68 / 10 10 20 10 40 Waco 66 81 68 81 70 / 5 5 5 5 20 Paris 62 77 64 79 67 / 5 50 30 30 30 Denton 63 81 66 80 66 / 10 20 20 10 50 McKinney 64 80 67 79 68 / 10 20 20 10 40 Dallas 66 82 69 82 69 / 10 10 10 10 30 Terrell 64 80 65 80 68 / 5 20 10 10 20 Corsicana 66 82 67 82 70 / 5 5 5 5 10 Temple 65 81 66 82 69 / 5 5 0 5 20 Mineral Wells 63 82 67 83 66 / 10 5 20 10 60

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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