Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 1:59 PM   Moonset 2:12 AM

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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 324 Pm Edt Fri May 17 2024
Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of tstms this evening. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms after midnight. Sat - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then showers and tstms likely in the afternoon. Sat night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening. Sun - W winds 5 kt, increasing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Sun night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Mon - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. A slight chance of tstms in the morning. A slight chance of showers. Mon night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Tue - NE winds 10 kt. Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less.
charleston harbor water temperature 76 degrees.

AMZ300 324 Pm Edt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - A storm system will bring impacts to our area this weekend. High pressure returns to our region next week.

FXUS62 KCHS 172009 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 409 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
A storm system will bring impacts to our area this weekend.
High pressure returns to our region next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
So far this afternoon the forecast area has been covered under a layer of mid and high clouds. As a result, temperatures have been limited generally to the upper 70s inland to the low 80s along the coast, over dewpoints around 70 degrees. The BL temperatures combined with an inversion centered at H75 should yield rather shallow lapse rates through this evening. In fact, SPC mesoanalysis indicates that normalized CAPE values remain near zero across the forecast area, with values only approaching 0.1 near the FL/GA line.
The challenge this evening will be the intensity, placement, timing of developing thunderstorms across south central AL. Steering flow should result in this convection to track east through mid-evening.
The convection should gradually weaken as it pushes across southern GA. It is possible that as the cluster of thunderstorms approaches the GA coast this evening, some cells may produce gusty winds along with cloud-to-ground lightning. Residual showers and thunderstorms may continue through the rest of tonight. Min temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 60s inland to the low 70s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
Much of this period is expected to be the most active for the entire forecast period through the next work week. Models show an upper level trough over the lower MS River Valley early Saturday, moving eastward toward the forecast area through Sunday. Conditions look the most favorable for showers/thunderstorms later Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Peak values of CAPE and bulk shear will be later Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening, which is the main time frame that the SPC has our entire region in a SLT Risk for severe storms. Have kept high likely/low end categorical PoPs for much of the area on Saturday and Saturday evening, chance Saturday night, and then likely again Sunday. The threat for any severe storms looks too low to mention for Sunday due to a significant decrease in CAPE, despite the passage of a surface cold front and the presence of the upper level trough. By later Sunday night and Monday, the upper trough axis will move offshore, allowing a cold front to push south of the area. High pressure builds in from the northwest Sunday night and Monday, which will bring slightly cooler and drier conditions.

Temperatures above normal Saturday, near normal Sunday and possibly a tad below normal behind the cold front on Monday.

Heavy Rainfall Potential: Blended models solutions continue to point toward later Saturday afternoon and evening for the most likely window for locally heavy rainfall. The area with the highest chance for heavy rainfall appears to be our coastal counties, especially from the Charleston Tri-county region, southward to the Savannah River. However, there continues to be uncertainty in the exact placement of the heavy rainfall, since localized boundaries produced by convection/thunderstorms will likely dictate where the heaviest rainfall occurs. Thunderstorm induced boundaries could collide with a weak seabreeze close to the coast Saturday afternoon, which is why we are leaning toward higher chances for the heaviest rainfall to be over our coastal counties.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
This period looks to be much quieter, with little/no chances for any significant rainfall and temperatures above normal. Another cold front may impact the area later Thursday and Friday with at least slight chances for showers/thunderstorms. However, the timing of this front and whether or not there will be sufficient deep layer moisture to support precipitation remains uncertain. Temperatures expected to be above normal during this period, especially by Thursday and Friday as a deep layer ridge builds to the south- southwest of the area, keeping our region under low level west- southwest flow.

AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Prior to the 18Z TAFs, KCLX detected scattered showers streaming across SE GA, with showers passing over and near KSAV. Showers and thunderstorms should gradually increase across SE GA through mid-evening. The KSAV TAF will feature a TEMPO between 0-3Z for VFB10G15kt during TSRA. KCHS and KJZI may see passing showers this evening into the late night hours. MOS and forecast soundings indicate that MVFR ceilings are expected to develop over the terminals late tonight remaining into mid Saturday morning. Conditions are expected to become VFR by 14Z Saturday.

Saturday through Sunday: Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected with brief flight restrictions possible, especially later Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening.

Sunday night through Wednesday: VFR expected to prevail.

MARINE
The sfc pattern should support south winds between 10 to 15 kts, with gusts around 20 kts 15 nm and beyond. Wave heights are forecast to gradually build to 2-3 ft by late tonight. A cluster of strong thunderstorms may push off the GA coast late this evening. It is possible that a Special Marine Warning or Statement could be issued later tonight.

No highlights are expected through the period. The waters will remain under the influence of a ridge of high pressure well to the southeast and lower pressure well inland, to the northwest. This will keep southwest winds of 15 knots or less and seas generally 2 to 4 feet through Sunday. A cold front is expected to push through the waters during the day on Sunday. Behind this front, winds will veer to north-northwest and increase to 15 to 20 knots. Seas building to 3 to 5 feet. The increased winds/seas are not expected to persist long. They should begin to subside a bit by later Monday as winds become more northeast at 15 knots or less, with seas 2 to 4 feet Monday night through Wednesday.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Pimlico
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Fri -- 01:47 AM EDT     1.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:22 AM EDT     1.62 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:17 PM EDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:07 PM EDT     1.63 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pimlico, West Branch, Cooper River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Charleston Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:41 AM EDT     1.02 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:15 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:53 AM EDT     -1.57 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:04 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:15 PM EDT     1.14 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:05 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:29 PM EDT     -1.65 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:34 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current, knots

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