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FXUS64 KFWD 090910 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 310 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

New Long Term

SHORT TERM
/Issued 1242 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023/ /This Weekend/

The workweek ended on a very warm note, but a strong cold front will move through this morning and bring much cooler air to the region this weekend. There is a weak surface trough, remnants of yesterday's dryline, currently stalled over North Texas. Cool and dry air with near calm winds reside north of the boundary while mild and humid air with breezy south winds reside south of the boundary. A few locations between the I-30/I-20 corridors may experience a few hours of fog, but widespread dense fog is not expected. Additionally, patchy fog may develop along the I-35 corridor in Central Texas along the western edge of a stratus deck across eastern Central Texas. The actual cold front lags behind the stalled surface trough and is difficult to analyze as the airmasses undergo a merger over the next several hours. Either way, the cold front will overtake the surface trough before sunrise and continue moving south this morning. Expect a drop in temp and dewpoint behind the cold front, with even a few hours of post-frontal stratus possible across North Texas. The front should move through most of our Central Texas counties near sunrise.

The chance for precipitation along the front has decreased as increasingly veered flow shunted deep moisture east. We have maintained a less than 20% chance of showers this morning across far Northeast Texas, but even those chances are fleeting as this discussion gets typed.

Cold advection during the pre-dawn hours will be noticeable, but it will become blatantly obvious between 8-10 AM when the boundary layer deepens. This will transport stronger winds aloft down to the surface, resulting in a cool and breezy day. Wind speeds should remain below our Wind Advisory criteria, but still strong enough to blow around inflatable yard decorations if they are not deflated. Cold advection will be offset by insolation so highs are projected to climb into the 60s for most. Temperatures should fall quickly this evening, resulting in a cold Sunday morning. A light freeze is expected for those northwest of the Metroplex and across the Big Country, with the remainder of the forecast area falling into the mid to upper 30s. The winds will still be gusty Sunday morning, with wind chills in the 20s early in the day. A high pressure center will emerge out of West Texas early Sunday and move into our forecast area late in the day. Sunday should be the coolest day with this system as highs remain in the low to mid 50s areawide under clear to mostly clear skies.

Bonnette

LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Next Week/

Southerly surface winds will begin returning Sunday night, keeping North Central Texas and the Big Country above freezing. But for Central and East Texas, the advection will be negligible, and speeds will be light enough that temperatures Monday morning will be several degrees cooler than 24 hours previous. This means freezing temperatures for much of Central and East Texas, with some locations dipping into the 20s. For the entire region, this will be the last freeze of the week. The southerly winds and sunshine will add 5 to 10 degrees to Monday afternoon's temperatures, which will top 60F in nearly every locale.

By Tuesday, the flow aloft will gain a southerly component as the next system dives south through the Intermountain West. As it taps the subtropical jet, a plume of cirrus will progressively invade the sky. In the low-levels, Gulf moisture will steadily increase with low clouds spreading north underneath the cirrus canopy.
Initially, this will only reduce daytime temperatures across western portions of North Texas. But by Wednesday, the clouds will become more widespread, and the entire region will peak in the 50s. As the system approaches, rain showers may affect western portions of North Texas as early as Wednesday, the activity becoming more widespread on Thursday. While guidance continues to disagree on the evolution late in the week, the associated front should arrive on Friday with additional rain. A wetting rainfall is anticipated regionwide, but mid to late week event totals vary from less than 1/4 inch in East Texas to near an inch across the Big Country. After Friday's frontal passage, cooler but seasonal temperatures will settle in during the following weekend.

25

AVIATION
/Issued 1242 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023/ /06Z TAFs/

South flow should prevail until a cold front moves through early this morning. FROPA and light north flow is expected at the D10 terminals between 09-10Z and ACT a few hours later. The winds may go light and variable for a few hours before FROPA, but this detail was omitted from the TAFs. A narrow band of post-frontal MVFR stratus has developed along the Red River, but veered flow should shunt most of the ceilings east of D10. Due to this, we do not carry any ceilings in the TAFs, only SCT020. A solid sheet of MVFR stratus does exist across East Texas and eastern Central Texas. This cloud deck will brush by the ACT terminal this morning, with intermittent MVFR ceilings expected from about 08-12Z before it moves east.

Drier air will move into the region after sunrise, with breezy north winds (12-18 kts gusting to 22-28 kts) and VFR clear to mostly clear skies prevailing thereafter.

Bonnette

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 62 36 54 36 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 67 36 55 33 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 61 34 51 31 58 / 10 0 0 0 0 Denton 61 32 54 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 62 33 53 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 63 37 54 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 64 35 53 31 60 / 5 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 69 37 54 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 70 36 56 28 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 61 30 54 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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