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FXUS64 KFWD 081150 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 550 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update:

This morning will start breezy and humid with a dryline forecast to move into the area from the west this afternoon. The dryline will stall across North Texas tonight, resulting in a boundary between cool:dry and mild:humid airmasses. The cool and dry air should cool enough this evening to result in the formation of fog once more humid air moves north. Fog is most likely along and east of I-35 in Central Texas, then roughly following the I-30 corridor into Northeast Texas. Fog should clear relatively quickly once the cold front approaches early Saturday morning.

We did not discuss the potential for precipitation tonight across Northeast Texas in the previous discussion, but there is a low (20%) chance of storms tonight. Isentropic ascent will strengthen this evening which may allow for a few elevated showers and storms to develop near our forecast area. The vast majority of tonight's convective activity should remain E and NE of our counties, but we still wanted to mention the low chance of this occurring. The latest SPC Convective Outlook includes a few of our counties in a Marginal Risk for severe hail and a 2% chance seems reasonable at this time.

Bonnette

Previous Discussion: /Friday and Friday Night/

Well above normal temperatures are forecast during the short term period. Increasingly humid air will be drawn north this morning with dew point temperatures 20-25 degrees higher than the same time yesterday. A 35-45 kt low-level jet will support gusty south winds overnight and prevent the boundary layer from decoupling. At the same time, a blanket of stratus is surging north to northeast that will blanket most of the area. All of these factors will limit cooling and prevent temperatures from falling much more than a few degrees below their current values.

A quick-moving (and weak) shortwave trough will swing across the Southern Plains today with a low pressure system also being drawn east. An attendant dryline is forecast to move into our forecast area from the west this afternoon and stall near I-35. Ahead of the dryline, southwest flow aloft should still clear out most of the stratus by early to mid afternoon, resulting in a sunny day across the entire forecast area. Those behind the dryline will experience weather more reminiscent of mid October with highs in the upper 70s. Warm and dry (RH 20-25%) air, breezy winds, and plentiful insolation will result in an elevated grass fire threat for those generally west of US-281 this afternoon. It is worth noting that our current forecast for DFW Airport is 78, two degrees shy of the daily record. Amongst the available guidance, there is only a 1 in 5 chance (18%) of the record being tied or broken. Today's record at Waco is 86...which will not be broken.

The aforementioned shortwave will race northeast tonight as a much stronger upper-level system digs into the western CONUS. This will allow the dryline to stall over North Texas with light winds and clear skies prevailing behind/north of the boundary. South of the boundary, warm and moist advection will continue with another round of stratus expected. The stalled boundary will slowly lift north overnight as south flow nudges it north. Fog is expected to develop in the areas that experience strong cooling behind the boundary in the evening, then get overtaken by the more humid airmass overnight. It is hard to pinpoint where this will occur since it will largely depend on how far south and east the dryline will advance this afternoon. Moreover, elevated winds aloft may prevent fog formation. Due to these uncertainties, we have precluded the mention of fog in our official forecast at this time, but will likely introduce it in future forecast updates.

Bonnette

LONG TERM
/Issued 320 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023/ /This Weekend and Next Week/

A cold front will sweep through the region on Saturday. Although there will be unseasonably rich boundary layer moisture within the warm sector, strongly veered prefrontal flow will evacuate the most buoyant parcels before the front arrives. This wind regime will also limit convergence, and the frontal forcing is unlikely to overcome the inhibition capping the diurnally cool surface layer. While this will become less of an issue during the afternoon hours, convective-allowing guidance concedes that the mechanical forcing along the advancing boundary will likely be inadequate. Any storm that is able to develop may have a wind/hail threat as the cell motion allows individual updrafts to endure as they slide eastward along the front. However, the greater potential for deep convection remains southeast of our area into the evening hours.

Sharply cooler air will pour into the region Saturday into Saturday night, with all locations falling into the 30s Sunday morning. A light freeze is likely in many western and northern zones. Breezy north winds will persist, and wind chill values may dip into the teens around daybreak. The trailing upper trough will swing through at this time, providing a sudden burst of lift; but with limited moisture, any potential for wintry precipitation is minuscule. Sunshine will then help temperatures recover into the 50s Sunday afternoon. The sun will combine with the return of south winds on Monday to push the mercury back up above 60F.
Tuesday's high temperatures will match Monday's as an increase in cloud cover arrests the warming trend. Our next rain chances will arrive on Wednesday, as an upper low digging into the Desert Southwest begins spreading lift across the Lone Star State.
Guidance then diverges with the evolution of the system, but the consensus maintains unsettled southwesterly flow above Texas, which will keep rain chances in place through the end of the week.

25

AVIATION
/NEW/ /12Z TAFs/

MVFR stratus came in dense earlier in the night but with a well defined east-west demarcation. Veered flow within the cloud layer shunted the dense stratus into East Texas, and those west of I-35 experienced a much more patchy cloud deck the past couple hours.
We have a MVFR TEMPO for the next hour or two at most TAF sites, but the stratus should fill in after 12-13Z. It should erode/move east quickly between 15-17Z at all TAF terminals.

VFR and gusty S flow will prevail after the stratus clears. The wind speed will weaken around 23Z, with light winds expected after 03Z at the D10 terminals. This may result in a change to N flow at the surface, but the winds as low as 2-300ft will remain out of the S for much of the night. S flow will continue at ACT.

We have maintained BR in the D10 TAFs tonight to communicate the potential of fog developing. The TAFs still show MVFR visibility, however, it will likely be a scenario where there is either P6SM or IFR/LIFR visibility. Given the uncertainty of where the fog will develop, we have maintained optimistic TAFs ATTM.

Bonnette

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 78 50 65 36 54 / 0 0 5 0 0 Waco 77 55 68 39 55 / 0 0 10 5 0 Paris 72 54 64 34 51 / 5 20 20 5 0 Denton 77 45 62 31 54 / 0 0 5 0 0 McKinney 76 50 63 33 53 / 0 5 5 0 0 Dallas 77 53 65 37 54 / 0 5 5 0 0 Terrell 75 56 66 34 52 / 0 10 10 5 0 Corsicana 77 60 69 39 55 / 0 5 20 5 0 Temple 77 54 70 36 57 / 0 0 10 5 0 Mineral Wells 82 42 63 31 56 / 0 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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