Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Camp Pendleton South, CA

DISCUSSION
FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

High pressure aloft will build over the Pacific for the middle to end of the week. Through the forecast period the ridge axis is expected to stay to our west, but with California in it's periphery warming conditions can be expected. Above average high and low temperatures can be expected through the weekend. Areas of moderate HeatRisk are expected for the Inland Empire and the High Desert, with more localized areas of moderate HeatRisk in the far eastern San Diego county valleys and Inland Orange County. Widespread moderate with locally major HeatRisk expected in the low deserts on Saturday. Based on current forecast, high temperatures do not look record breaking but some low temperature records will be in jeopardy, especially for the mountains, coast, and valleys.

The position of the ridge could allow for some subtropical moisture to sneak into the southwestern United States by the end of the week.
Ensemble members of both the GEFS and ECMWF show a notable increase in precipitable water into the low deserts Friday, with less but still elevated precipitable water Saturday and Sunday. The forecast looks to remain dry at this time so it looks like the main impact from this moisture surge would be tempering the highs across the deserts and an increase in high clouds. Current forecast for the low deserts is 108-112 degrees Friday and Saturday, but if the moisture surge materializes high temperatures would likely be lower than that.

There is some uncertainty with highs Sunday for the desert areas.
Highs in the desert have the potential to be hotter on Sunday compared to Friday/Saturday if the moisture surge is significantly weaker. There is higher confidence that areas west of the mountains will cool a degree or two by Sunday. Conditions will cool a degree or so each day into early next week.

For much of this week the marine layer is expected to be on the shallower side, staying confined to coastal areas and western valleys at times. The marine layer may deepen slightly into early next week.



AVIATION
100430Z
Coast/Valleys
Low clouds based 1000-1500 ft MSL are slowly moving into coastal San Diego County this evening. Expect low clouds to fill into coastal areas and western valleys from south to north overnight reaching 10-15 miles inland by 12z. Minor vis reductions (4-6SM) for elevated coastal terrain. Clouds scatter to the coast by 16-17z. Low clouds with similar bases return to coastal areas starting 02-04z Thu.

Mountains/Deserts...VFR and SKC through Wednesday. SW/W wind gusts near 25-35 kts along desert slopes and through passes will taper off after 06z.

MARINE
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Saturday.

BEACHES
Elevated surf and rip current activity expected through Thursday afternoon. Surf peaks on Wednesday with surf 4-7 feet and sets up to 10 feet at south-facing beaches, then gradually diminishes late this week. See the Beach Hazards Statement for more details.

SKYWARN
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.



SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday afternoon for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.