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PZZ750 Coastal Waters From San Mateo Point To The Mexican Border And Out To 30 Nm- 136 Am Pst Thu Dec 7 2023
Today..Wind west 10 knots. Gusts to 15 knots this afternoon. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. SWell west 3 to 4 feet at 16 seconds.
Tonight..Wind northwest 10 knots with gusts to 15 knots. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. SWell west 4 to 7 feet at 9 seconds.
Friday..Wind southwest 10 knots...becoming west in the afternoon. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. SWell west 4 to 6 feet at 9 seconds.
Friday night..Wind variable less than 10 knots...becoming east 10 knots with gusts to 15 knots after midnight. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. SWell west 3 to 5 feet at 11 seconds.
Saturday..Wind east 10 to 15 knots. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. SWell west 2 to 4 feet at 12 seconds.
Saturday night..Wind east 10 knots with gusts to 15 knots. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. SWell west 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Wind northeast 10 knots...becoming northwest in the afternoon. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. SWell west 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday night..Wind northwest 10 knots with gusts to 15 knots in the evening...becoming variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. SWell west 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..Wind variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. SWell west 1 to 2 feet.
Monday night..Wind variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. SWell west 2 to 3 feet.

PZZ700 136 Am Pst Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis for the far southern california coast..At 1 am, a 1024 mb high was near Monterey california and a 1007 mb low was over eastern nevada. Onshore flow will strengthen Thursday, with northwest winds gusting 20 to 25 knots near san clemente island late this morning into Friday morning. Offshore flow will develop Friday night and continue into Sunday. Some northeast gusts could exceed 20 knots near shore.

FXUS66 KSGX 071717 AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 917 AM PST Thu Dec 7 2023

SYNOPSIS
A trough moving through the West will increase the onshore flow today. This will deepen the marine layer, with some low clouds and fog west of the mountains. It will also bring strong westerly winds to the mountains and deserts today and tonight. Offshore flow will quickly develop Friday, producing northeast Santa Ana winds, strongest Saturday, especially in foothills and adjacent valleys. The offshore flow eases into early next week while high pressure aloft brings warmer weather. Dry weather will continue next week.

DISCUSSION
FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

9 AM Update: Marine layer clouds continue to cover the coasts and valleys of SoCal with a deeper marine layer in place. Some thinning of the clouds is observed on satellite hinting at a weaker marine inversion, so clearing should be able to occur later today. Cooler conditions prevail today and early Friday before midlevel ridging and offshore winds arrive later Friday afternoon, leading to a drier and warmer regime that will also support elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Trends will be monitored for potential fire product issuances, but are also dependent on live fuel moistures which currently still look to be running near or slightly below average for early December.

From Previous Discussion:

The dense fog from last evening has been generally lifting as our marine layer deepens, but we still have some visibility below 2 miles in spots. The deepening is in response to a low pressure trough moving into the West to our north. Tis not the season for healthy marine layers, and the current marine inversion is weak, which explains why the low clouds and fog are somewhat random and intermittent. Skies will turn mostly sunny today, except only partly cloudy in San Diego County. The trough has enhanced our onshore flow (which is deepening the marine layer) and will also increase the winds in the mountains and deserts. Wind gusts into early Friday will top out at 40-50 mph with isolated gusts approaching 60. As the trough moves into the western interior, cold air will settle there, producing a steep offshore pressure gradient into SoCal, combining with the northerly flow aloft.
That's the recipe for Santa Anas. For areas through and below the Cajon Pass, look for northeast winds beginning Friday. By Friday evening the easterly winds will increase and spread into Riverside and San Diego Counties. This looks like a solid moderate strength Santa Ana event. The current wind advisory for onshore winds through tonight will need to be reworked for the offshore winds, which appear to continue through Saturday. Weaker offshore winds will continue into Sunday. High pressure aloft amplifies over the West Coast over the weekend, promising a decent warming trend, especially west of the mountains. Sunday appears to be the warmest day, with max temps near the coast in the upper 70s, 7-10 degrees above normal. Next week the next upper low sails into the West, with most solutions cutting off the low over the Southwest for Tuesday and Wednesday. This will bring cooler weather, and it is a relatively dry system. Ensembles are not unified over where this low will settle. If the low is over Arizona, we could set up for another Santa Ana event. But if it's over SoCal, not so much. The range of solutions include weak to moderate offshore flow all next week. Despite this upper low hanging around for a few days, it sits inside a decent ridge overall, so max temps should remain a few degrees above normal. The thing we have most confidence in is that it will remain dry through next week.



AVIATION
071710Z
Coast/Valleys
SCT-BKN low clouds will continue to slowly disperse through the morning, remaining locally BKN across parts of San Diego County with cigs 1500-2800 ft MSL. Timing on clearing is moderate, with most areas scattering by 19-21Z. Areas of vis 2-4 miles across the Inland Empire and higher terrain will gradually improve later this morning as well.

Low to moderate confidence on cigs reforming 2000-2500 ft MSL after 01Z tonight for areas west of the mountains, highest chance near coastal slopes and in San Diego County. Clearing occurring sometime Friday morning as Santa Ana winds develop.

Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear through this evening and Friday. W- NW winds with sfc gusts 25-40 kt mainly from the mountain crests east through the desert slopes and east of passes through Thu night, with local stronger gusts 40-55 kt Thu late afternoon/evening.

MARINE
Northwest winds gusting 20 to 25 knots will develop later this afternoon through the night, calming by sunrise on Friday over the outer coastal waters. Combined seas approaching 10 feet and choppy conditions west and south of San Clemente Island. Isolated northeast wind gusts to 20 knots, highest chance across northern San Diego County coast, will occur Friday night and Saturday.

BEACHES
A west northwest swell with a period of 17 seconds this evening lowering to 14 seconds by late Thursday and heights 4-5 feet will bring elevated surf through early Friday. The highest surf is expected Thursday, mainly in southern San Diego County. Wave heights will range from 3 to 6 feet for most areas with local sets to 8 feet or more in southern San Diego County.

FIRE WEATHER
Onshore flow will strengthen today, as desert slopes and desert locations see gusty west winds, highest for portions of San Diego and Riverside Counties near 40 to locally 60 mph. This will spread cooling and higher coastal humidity inland through tonight. Winds will turn offshore Friday, first in northern areas pushing southward throughout the day into the evening. Coastal slopes of the mountains will get highest winds to 50 to 65 mph, locally gusty for valley locations as well. Humidity values lower near 20 percent Friday, lowering to near 10 to 15 percent away from the coast Saturday. Conditions will approach or exceed critical levels Saturday afternoon. Weaker offshore winds will continue into Sunday with warmer weather. Periods of weaker offshore flow will continue at times next week.

SKYWARN
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.



SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for Riverside County Mountains-San Diego County Deserts-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PST Friday for Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending 30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.

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San Clemente
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Thu -- 01:25 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:21 AM PST     4.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:41 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:03 PM PST     1.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:25 PM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:42 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:35 PM PST     3.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:13 PM PST     1.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

San Clemente, California, Tide feet

La Jolla
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Thu -- 01:24 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:20 AM PST     4.81 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:38 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:00 PM PST     1.41 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:24 PM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:42 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:37 PM PST     3.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:04 PM PST     1.48 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

La Jolla, Scripps Pier, California, Tide feet

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