Sunrise 6:48 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 4:12 PM   Moonset 4:13 AM

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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 554 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2024
Today - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt late. A slight chance of showers and tstms late. Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then showers and tstms likely after midnight. Sun - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then showers with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon. Sun night - N winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Showers with a slight chance of tstms in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Mon - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning. Mon night - NE winds 10 kt. A slight chance of showers. Tue - NE winds 10 kt. Tue night - SE winds 10 kt. Wed - SW winds 10 kt. Wed night - SW winds 10 kt.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less.
charleston harbor water temperature 69 degrees.

AMZ300 554 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - A slow moving front will bring unsettled weather to the region this weekend. High pressure will then return and prevail into the middle of next week.

FXUS62 KCAE 201041 AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 641 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
Moisture increases into Saturday as a cold front moves toward the area. With strong heating each afternoon, diurnally driven isolated showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop.
The front becomes stationary near or slightly south of the area Sunday. Deep moisture and lift across the area will result in numerous showers Sunday and Sunday night. Temperatures Sunday and Monday are expected to be well below normal.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A lingering surface trough has led to showers and storms which has shifted to the eastern area early this morning. Slightly drier air is shifting into the western portion of the forecast area which should allow any lingering convection to decrease towards sunrise.

A cold front remains to the northwest of the forecast area this morning which is expected to slowly shift into the area through the day. Anomalously warm 850mb temperatures remain in place and cold advection will lag the front leading to above average temperatures once again, especially across the southern portions of the forecast area. Highs in the low 80s in the north to upper 80s south. As far as the convection potential is concerned for today, HRRR guidance does indicate that the strongest instability will mainly favor the Coastal Plain but still indicates moderate destabilization over the forecast area with 50 to 70 percent of members showing sbCAPE > 1000 J/kg south of I-20. Upper level forcing will be limited with zonal flow aloft but with the front in the area, there likely will be sufficient forcing for at least scattered showers and storms with the highest coverage in the southeastern area where the moisture will be a bit higher. Some HiRes guidance is indicating a capping inversion potentially hanging on until mid-afternoon. As a result, convective coverage will likely be highest late afternoon into evening. Severe weather potential is low with the highest deep layer shear remaining a bit farther north of the highest instability.

Tonight, a shortwave trough over the Deep South will begin to shift towards the forecast area with increasing PVA and deep layer moisture. Rain chances will continue to increase into Sunday morning with isentropic lift associated with the stalled boundary. Overnight lows expected to remain mild as a result, mostly in the mid to upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
An approaching shortwave trough over the MS Valley will promote continued moisture advection and increasing isentropic lift as the surface boundary sinks south of the area. Expect periods of rain to overspread the forecast area through the day which should strengthen in situ wedge conditions and result in possible falling or near steady temperatures, which will be much cooler than previous days with max temperatures ranging from the upper 50s north to mid 60s south. Overall rain amounts expected to be somewhat light ranging from around a quarter to half an inch. Chances of rain decrease Sunday night as isentropic lift weakens and shifts east of the forecast area and deeper moisture shifts eastward with PWATs falling below an inch. Any convection is expected to remain south of the forecast area closer to the frontal boundary.

Drier air works into the region on Monday as the upper trough axis moves over the region. There is a chance for afternoon showers to develop in response to steep mid level lapse rates from cold 500mb temps moving over the region but limited moisture available will be a limiting factor and the best chances should be closer to the Coastal Plain. Expect widespread clouds to linger on Monday which will limit max temperatures and keep them well below normal in the 60s. Clearing skies and some cool advection should support cool temperatures Monday night in the lower 40s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The extended forecast period generally remains unchanged with dry weather expected during this period. 500mb ensemble means show some weak height rises in the wake of the departing trough off the east coast with somewhat zonal westerly flow.
Temperatures should be a bit warmer than Monday but still remain below normal with highs in the lower to mid 70s.

A shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes region to New England and the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday and Wednesday night. This will push a frontal boundary through the forecast area by Thursday morning. Ensemble mean PWATs are forecast to be near normal but with the Gulf of Mexico moisture cut off, most of the moisture should be above 700mb and expect the front to come through dry. Max temperatures will return to the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday ahead of the front with some compressional heating and plenty of sunshine but highs on Thursday will be slightly cooler again behind the front.
Ensembles show 500mb ridging on Friday although the GFS ensemble is a bit flatter than the ECMWF ensemble.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions through the TAF period.

Some passing high clouds over the terminals early this morning.
Winds increase out of the northwest late this morning. With a cold front in the area isolated to scattered showers and storms develop late this afternoon into this evening. Coverage is expected to be limited, so have not included mention in the TAF. Tonight, moisture will continue to increase with higher chances for rain and lowering ceilings. There is a possibility of restrictions around 12z, especially at the Augusta terminals but with highest confidence after 12z, have left the mention of restrictions out of this TAF issuance.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing confidence in ceiling and visibility restrictions Sunday into Monday with possible developing wedge conditions.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.

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Cuckolds Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:47 AM EDT     1.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:16 AM EDT     3.32 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:03 PM EDT     1.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:49 PM EDT     3.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cuckolds Creek, Combahee River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Ashepoo
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:35 AM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:49 AM EDT     2.21 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:51 PM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:22 PM EDT     2.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ashepoo, Ashepoo River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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