NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
At daybreak, satellite images indicated an area of expanding stratus across portions of the SC Lowcountry. The stratus may drift to the SSW as a backdoor cold front approaches from the north.

This morning, the cold front is expected to be positioned across the SC Lowcountry, pushing to the south. The front is timed to slide south of the Savannah River by mid-day. As the front advances, sfc winds will veer from the northeast, between 5 to 10 mph. In addition, dewpoints should remain in the mid 70s. High temperatures should occur during the early to mid afternoon, favoring values around 90 degrees. Forecast soundings indicate limited instability across the forecast area. However, coastal areas may see weak instability may increase late this afternoon with slight onshore flow. High resolution guidance indicates that isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop within the areas of greatest instability this afternoon.

This evening, convection should dissipate within an hour or two of sunset. The rest of the night should remain dry. Using a blend of MOS, low temperatures are forecast to range from around 70 inland to the mid 70s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Sunday: There will be a mid-level rex block to our north in the morning. It'll focus its energy into the Low off the Northeast coast as time progresses. Meanwhile, a 593 dam High will hover over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Surface High pressure will stretch along the Mid-Atlantic Coast, gradually shifting offshore into the evening and overnight. However, it's southern periphery will reach into our area, bringing drier air. There will be a large moisture gradient across our area, with PWATs ranging from <1" across our northernmost tier, to ~2.25" across our southern tier. Dew points could fall into the lower to mid 60s away from the coast during the afternoon, which will make it feel very comfortable outside. The lack of moisture will make it very difficult for afternoon convection to form. Our SC counties should stay dry. Synoptic models and the long- range CAMS point towards chance POPs closer to the Altamaha. But it should be a narrow corridor between rain and no rain. The evening and overnight will be dry. Highs should be in the lower 90s, except cooler at the beaches. Low will range from the upper 60s far inland to the mid 70s closer to the beaches.

Monday: The mid-levels will consist of a Low moving into the Northeastern U.S. Meanwhile, High pressure in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will get absorbed into a broad High centered over the Southern Plains. This will cause troughing to form over our region.
At the surface, High pressure initially off the Mid- Atlantic Coast will continue to move further offshore. Flow around the High will start to usher more moisture into our area, with PWATs rising above 2". High temperatures should peak around 90 degrees, which will cause instability to increase. Models indicate afternoon convection, but they remain divided on the coverage. It appears the highest coverage should be across inland GA, which is where we have chance POPs. Convection should decrease during the evening, with remnant showers persisting overnight. Low will range from the upper 60s far inland to the mid 70s closer to the beaches.

Tuesday: A mid-level trough will prevail over the Southeastern U.S.
Surface High pressure will be in the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, troughing will form over the Southeastern U.S. in the afternoon.
Deep moisture will persist across our area with PWATs exceeding 2".
High temperatures should be around 90 degrees, which will generate a decent amount of instability. The moisture and instability will cause afternoon convection, aided by the sea breeze. Given the time of year, a marginally severe storm cannot be ruled out with damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A summertime pattern will persist with High pressure in the western Atlantic and troughing along or near the Southeast U.S. This synoptic flow will keep abundant moisture across our region, leading to diurnally driven convection. Temperatures will start near normal, but could rise above normal Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Prior to the 12Z TAFs, satellite nighttime microphysics RGB and ground based observations indicated a large area of stratus over the SC Lowcountry, including the KCHS and KJZI terminals.
Both TAFs will feature restrictive ceilings, as low as IFR through the early daylight hours. KSAV may see a period of MVFR ceilings around dawn, we will monitor obs for needed amendments.
MVFR ceilings over KCHS and KJZI may linger until mid-day. A backdoor cold front is timed to pass over the terminals today, followed with wind veering from the NE. Isolated to scattered showers, possibly a thunderstorm, may develop near the cold front. Each TAF will feature a mention of VCSH during the late afternoon into this evening. KJZI should see the greatest chance for a restrictive shower, highlighted with a TEMPO between 20-24Z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR is expected Sunday and Monday. Brief flight restrictions are expected due to afternoon/evening convection starting Tuesday.

MARINE
Early this morning, satellite images and Doppler Radar indicate a line of towering cumulus clouds, showers, and a few thunderstorms across the Georgia coastal waters. This line of convection may be capable of producing waterspouts this morning.
A Marine Statement has been issued until 14Z to highlight the risk for waterspouts.

Winds will remain from the north between 5 to 10 kts through the rest of this morning. A backdoor cold front is timed to push across the marine zones during the mid-day hours. In the wake of the front, winds will shift from the NE and increase to 10 to 15 kts, with gusts around 20 kts across the Charleston County nearshore waters. Seas should begin the day between 2-3 ft, building to 2 to 4 ft by late this afternoon.

Tonight, the sfc pattern is expected to maintain NE winds between 10 to 15 kts. Seas should continue between 2 to 4 ft through the night.

Extended Marine: High pressure will stretch along the Mid- Atlantic Coast Sunday, before gradually shifting offshore Sunday night into Monday. Coastal troughing should form by the middle of next week.
This will yield a more typical wind pattern towards the middle of next week. Expect sustained winds less than 15 kts. Seas should be 2- 4 ft.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.