Sunday, July5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Alvord, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 8:42PM Sunday July 5, 2020 3:35 AM CDT (08:35 UTC) Moonrise 8:32PMMoonset 5:44AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Alvord, TX
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location: 33.36, -97.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 050822 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 322 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

SHORT TERM. /Issued 1220 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020/ /Overnight through Monday/

With our typical summertime mid level ridge displaced to the west for a few days, we'll continue to see scattered rain/storm chances both Sunday and Monday along with some slightly cooler temperatures. A quasi-stationary frontal boundary appears to be draped around the I-20 corridor, denoted primarily by a subtle wind shift along the boundary and perhaps a touch cooler air to the north. This feature looks like it will linger across the region through Monday and should serve as a focus for enhanced low level convergence and perhaps scattered thunderstorm development. It should continue to be reinforced by persistent northerly mid and upper level flow along with a weak 850-700 mb cyclonic circulation which sets up over the Arklatex.

For the remainder of tonight, rain/storm chances will be highest across our northeast counties. Scattered thunderstorms have developed over the last half hour from Sulphur Springs eastward toward Texarkana. This area is right along the boundary and features moisture rich air and moderate instability. Weak large scale forcing for ascent also appears to be playing a role as the latest RAP analysis indicates the presence of a subtle disturbance over western Arkansas. Given the modest instability, these storms could produce some small hail along with very heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. All of this activity should drift southward into the early morning hours.

Later today, we should see a little better coverage of scattered showers and storms during peak afternoon heating. Again, these should be closely tied to the weak aforementioned frontal boundary. This boundary should tend to drift southward through the day so we'll have 20-30% PoPs mainly along and south of I-20. Convection should also fire up again across northwest Texas into the Panhandle. Some of this activity may drift southeast into our area after dark so we'll hang on to some PoPs overnight tonight mainly in our west/southwest counties.

Monday may be the most active day of the next few as a pool of 2+" PWs slosh back westward across the region. We'll still be contending with our pesky surface boundary that will likely serve as the focus for convergence. We'll have PoPs areawide on Monday with a band of 30-40% coverage generally along and north of I-20. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning will all be the main threats.

Temperatures will tend to be a little cooler both today and Monday as there should be a little more cloud cover and overall ridging has decreased across the region. We'll still see temps in the low/mid 90s today and mainly lower 90s on Monday.

Dunn

LONG TERM. /NEW/ /Monday night through Next Weekend/

Monday's scattered activity will likely continue into the evening and overnight hours. The best chances (20-30% PoPs) are expected to be along the I-20 corridor, as the weak boundary lingers in the area. Locally heavy rain, brief gusty winds and frequent lightning will be the main threat. Overnight lows will stay in the low to mid 70s.

Another round of scattered showers and storms will be possible on Tuesday (and again on Wednesday), with the best chances east of the I-35 corridor. We're keeping the 20-40% PoPs on Tuesday and 20-30% on Wednesday. The combination of an upper level disturbance moving eastward along the Red River and the surface low across the Arklatex region will likely trigger this activity, especially during the afternoon hours. While the severe weather threat remains low, there is the potential for heavy downpours in a short amount of time, as the PW values are expected to be around or just above 2". Forecast details will continue to be refined as this activity will be influenced by mesoscale features. One thing for sure is that it will be hot and humid. While the high temperatures will stay in the low to mid 90s, heat indices will easily reach the triple digits (100- 104 degrees), especially on Wednesday.

Talking about the heat and triple digits . it still appears that we will finish the week and start the weekend with very hot temperatures. We're looking at area-wide upper 90s on Friday, and possible low 100s on Saturday and Sunday. The upper level ridge is expected to march back over the Southern Plains. Not only the deterministic models are in good agreement, but the long-range ensemble guidance is suggesting that it will stay over our area at least into the early following week. We will have to wait and see what mother nature has for us as we head into the middle of July.

Sanchez

AVIATION. /Issued 1220 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020/ /6Z TAFs/

VFR should prevail through the period although there will be scattered convection Sunday afternoon and again on Monday. Coverage on Sunday should be closely tied to a weak surface frontal boundary and may be highest in the Waco vicinity by afternoon. Light east winds will gradually become more northerly in the Metroplex this afternoon while they should stay southerly at Waco. We'll keep the mention of TS out of the current TAFs, but this may need to be added later this morning.

Dunn

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Dallas-Ft. Worth 96 77 91 76 92 / 20 10 40 30 30 Waco 98 75 94 76 93 / 30 30 20 30 20 Paris 88 73 86 73 88 / 30 20 40 30 40 Denton 94 75 91 74 91 / 10 10 40 20 30 McKinney 93 75 91 74 91 / 20 10 40 30 30 Dallas 96 78 92 76 92 / 20 10 40 30 30 Terrell 95 76 91 74 91 / 20 10 40 30 30 Corsicana 95 75 91 76 91 / 30 30 30 30 30 Temple 98 75 95 76 93 / 30 30 20 20 20 Mineral Wells 94 75 89 72 91 / 20 20 30 20 20

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.



17/91


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Decatur, Decatur Municipal Airport, TX9 mi41 minENE 510.00 miFair78°F73°F84%1011.8 hPa
Bridgeport, Bridgeport Municipal Airport, TX15 mi41 minENE 310.00 miFair78°F72°F84%1011.8 hPa
Bowie Municipal Airport, TX17 mi41 minN 010.00 miFair80°F76°F88%1012.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLUD

Wind History from LUD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------S4S4SW6W4N3NE9E9E10
G14
SE6SE9SE7CalmCalmNE3NE5NE8NE6NE6E6NE5
1 day agoE5SE5S8S6S5SW5W3W5SW5W3CalmE4N5NE4CalmE3CalmSE4------------
2 days agoS9S9S8S7S8SE5SE4S6S9S6S5S3SW5SE8SE4S13
G22
NE3N4SE7CalmCalmE4E5E6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.