Thursday, January21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Alvord, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 5:51PM Thursday January 21, 2021 10:16 PM CST (04:16 UTC) Moonrise 12:34PMMoonset 1:14AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Alvord, TX
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location: 33.36, -97.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 220138 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 738 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021

. New Short Term, Aviation .

SHORT TERM. /NEW/ /Tonight and Tomorrow/

Widespread rain across much of the region will gradually exit to the east tonight, though a few scattered showers will be possible across North Texas after midnight. However, the main concern during the overnight period will be the development of fog along and near a weak cold front.

A cold front will enter our northernmost border after midnight tonight, slowly progressing south through Friday morning. With weak winds and ample low level moisture in place, fog is expected to develop across North Texas shortly after midnight, gradually spreading south with the movement of the cold front. It's likely that a Dense Fog Advisory will be needed tonight, but have opted to hold off for now as confidence is too low in where dense fog will develop. Nonetheless, visibilities less than a mile are likely across much of the area overnight.

Areas of fog are expected to dissipate by mid to late morning, but low clouds will stick around throughout the day. The cold front will lose some of its momentum as it enters Central Texas around midday, allowing areas in our south to warm into the mid to upper 60s by Friday afternoon. Despite the entire area remaining rain-free, it'll still be a cool and gloomy day across North Texas with temperatures topping out in the 50s.

Barnes

LONG TERM. /Issued 247 PM CST Thu Jan 21 2021/ /Friday night through Thursday/

Brief ridging aloft and abundant cloud cover Friday night will offset weak low level cold air advection, keeping overnight lows in the 40s and lower 50s. The cloud cover will remain on Saturday, but Gulf moisture will quickly return behind a lifting warm front. Scattered showers will develop through the day Saturday as a deep upper low churns across the Desert Southwest and yields increasing large scale lift and gradual mid level destabilization. The showers will continue through Saturday night but will likely shift to the eastern half of the region as shortwave energy ejects out of the base of the approaching system. There should be enough mid level destabilization Saturday night for some isolated, elevated, thunderstorms. The clouds and rain Saturday will keep daytime highs in the 50s and 60s.

Sunday morning will start out humid and mild for late January with lows from the mid 40s to upper 50s. Showers and thunderstorms will develop through the day as the upper low opens up and lifts across New Mexico, putting North and Central Texas in an area of upper level diffluence. The combination of lift, destabilization, and more than adequate shear will result in increasing thunderstorm chances Sunday afternoon/evening. The unknown is how strong and how long a capping inversion will hold which will prevent storms from becoming rooted in the boundary layer. Most models suggest that while MUCAPE will be over 1000 J/KG, the cap may hold for much of the day and evening, and without some source of low level convergence, storms could stay elevated. Of course, if storms can become surface based, they will likely have the necessary ingredients to become strong to severe, capable of the full suite of severe weather hazards. One thing that is clear is that moisture will be high and there will be a good potential for locally heavy rainfall, especially east of the I-35 corridor where precipitable water values will be the highest.

Shower and storms will continue overnight Sunday into Monday morning as the upper trough lifts to the Central Plains and a cold front moves in from the west. Although low level forcing for ascent will increase along the eastward moving front, a decrease in both instability and large scale lift will likely result in downward trend in storm strength. Drier and subsident air will quickly filter in behind the front and departing upper system Monday afternoon, resulting in decreasing clouds and a breezy west to northwest wind.

Brief ridging aloft Monday night through Tuesday will result in rain-free weather with temperatures near or slightly above seasonal normals. By Tuesday night, the ridge axis will shift quickly east ahead of the next storm system lifting out of the Desert Southwest. Unlike the last few systems, this disturbance will have very little low level moisture to work with and will only bring middle/high clouds and a slight chance of light showers. All precipitation and most of the clouds will exit the region Wednesday night through Thursday with a building ridge aloft and dry air advection in the low levels. Temperatures Wednesday night will be in the 30s and lower 40s and highs Thursday will be in the 50s and lower 60s.

79

AVIATION. /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/

Areas of light rain will continue to move eastward overnight, though a second round of scattered light rain will be possible across North Texas tonight. VFR will prevail for the next few hours, but conditions will deteriorate shortly after midnight tonight.

Areas of fog are expected to develop near and along a cold front tonight. The cold front will arrive at D10 terminals near 08Z and KACT near 15Z with light northeasterly winds anticipated behind the front. Visibilities will deteriorate shortly after the arrival of the front, but confidence is low in where the greatest visibility reductions will occur. Visibilities near 1/2 mile or less will be possible in some areas, so trends will be monitored closely for any amendments to the TAFs. Areas of fog should stay just north and east of KACT, so only slight visibility reductions were included for now.

IFR ceilings will quickly overspread the area behind the cold front with LIFR possible by early Friday morning. Slight improvement to IFR is expected late morning, but all terminals will remain socked in for much of the day. MVFR likely won't return until late Friday afternoon or Friday evening.

Light northeasterly winds will increase to 8-10 knots Friday morning.

Barnes

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Dallas-Ft. Worth 48 57 46 59 53 / 30 10 5 20 40 Waco 52 64 51 64 57 / 40 5 0 30 40 Paris 46 56 39 51 45 / 20 10 0 5 50 Denton 46 55 42 58 50 / 20 5 0 20 30 McKinney 47 56 43 57 50 / 20 5 5 20 40 Dallas 49 58 47 60 55 / 30 10 5 20 40 Terrell 50 59 44 58 51 / 30 20 5 20 50 Corsicana 53 62 50 63 56 / 40 10 0 20 40 Temple 52 66 49 65 57 / 40 5 0 20 40 Mineral Wells 47 56 44 61 53 / 20 5 0 20 20

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Decatur, Decatur Municipal Airport, TX9 mi21 minNNE 44.00 miFog/Mist47°F46°F95%1012.9 hPa
Bridgeport, Bridgeport Municipal Airport, TX15 mi41 minN 010.00 miFair43°F43°F100%1013.5 hPa
Bowie Municipal Airport, TX17 mi41 minN 010.00 miFair46°F45°F96%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLUD

Wind History from LUD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S9SW5S6SW5SW7SW7S7S7SW8SW7SW7SW6SW6W3SW5S6CalmSE7CalmSE4CalmE3E4
1 day agoN7N7N5N6NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6S3S3CalmW4NW4NW4CalmCalmCalmSE7S5S7
2 days agoNE8NE7NE10NE10NE9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station




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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.