Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Alvord, TX

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 5:22PM Monday December 9, 2019 6:46 PM CST (00:46 UTC) Moonrise 3:55PMMoonset 4:42AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Alvord, TX
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location: 33.36, -97.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 100016 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 616 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

AVIATION. /00Z TAFs/

Concerns . deteriorating flying conditions expected to begin tonight and last through much of the morning tomorrow. Rain will transition to rain-snow mix for a few hours Tuesday morning across the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex.

The strong cold front has now cleared much of Central Texas, leading to gusty conditions continuing through the night at all TAF sites. A band of precipitation, much of which is not making it to the ground, has developed from Central Arkansas through the Trans-Pecos region. A gradual top-down moistening will occur through the night as the band shifts to the east. This will lead to widespread rainfall likely occurring at DFW area airports beginning shortly after midnight. As the thermal profile cools through the early Tuesday morning hours, a transition to rain- snow will be likely at all North Texas airports, along with IFR conditions. Surface temperatures are likely to remain above freezing through the precipitation period.

The frozen precipitation window will be short-lived as much drier air pushes in from the northwest. As the dry air arrives, CIGs are likely to improve, becoming VFR by late morning and by the evening, clouds will likely scatter out.

A similar trend is expected at Waco, with the exception of the frozen precipitation. Temperatures will be too warm for snow, but the main window for rain will commence at around 09Z and last through the late morning hours. IFR appears likely while precipitation is falling, but the arrival of dry air in the afternoon will lead to a gradual improvement in flying conditions.

Hernandez

SHORT TERM. /Issued 1257 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019/ /Through Tuesday/

Only some minor adjustments were made to the previous short term forecast regarding the Tuesday morning snow potential. The main takeaways remain the same: Rain will eventually become mixed with or transition completely to snow Tuesday morning across select portions of North Texas, perhaps resulting in some minor accumulations on grassy or elevated surfaces. Very little in the way of travel impacts are expected due to surface temperatures remaining near or above freezing. Due to limited potential for accumulations and impacts, no winter headlines are planned at this time. For the remainder of the forecast area, only a cold rain is expected.

Our strong cold front is presently moving through the area on schedule, and will clear the CWA to the southeast later today. Strong cold advection will continue overnight, sending temperatures into the 30s and lower 40s after midnight. The plume of mid-level moisture spreading eastward behind the front will continue to result in top-down saturation, and rain will eventually be capable of reaching the surface by this evening. This frontogenetically-induced band of precipitation will be aided by strong synoptic ascent from both DCVA accompanying a dynamic upper trough and our proximity to the right entrance region of an upper jet streak.

Essentially all guidance is suggesting low-level thermal profiles will eventually become cold enough to allow for a rain-snow mix or complete transition to snow to occur across parts of North Texas roughly between 3AM and 10AM. Profiles should approach their wet bulb temperature as low-level saturation occurs, while both adiabatic lift and cold advection cool the rest of the column. Some model profiles are actually depicting some textbook heavy snow soundings, with saturation to -20C, steep lapse rates in the dendritic growth zone, and an isothermal layer near 0 to +1C through the lowest ~2km. This could allow for some bursts of heavy wet snowfall roughly in areas north of I-20 and west of I-35. Should this occur, a quick couple inches of snow could accumulate on the grass in these areas, although this would likely be an isolated occurrence. Overall, am only expecting a brief window of snow potential of a couple hours at any given location, as the overlap between sufficiently cold air, lift, and moisture will only occur over a small swath at any given time. Our main areas of concern are generally from the Cisco/Stephenville area northeastward towards Denton, which may spend the longest residence time beneath a band of snow. This would be the main location that some 1-3" totals could potentially occur on grassy surfaces. In addition, I can't completely rule out the occurrence of thunder as the coldest mid-level temperatures become situated overhead. Mid-level lapse rates could actually approach 7-8 C/km during this time which may briefly enhance precipitation rates.

Uncertainties and alternate scenarios include a "reasonable worst case" of a multi-inch snow total somewhere west of the Metroplex should all the previously-discussed ingredients come together and persist for a few hours. On the other hand, a bust potential does exist in terms of low-level temperatures remaining slightly too warm for a full transition to snow to occur, in which case a mix would be the extent of observed winter weather with essentially no accumulations. This all basically depends on about 1 degree Celsius difference between 900-850mb. We've maintained a most- likely scenario depiction in the official forecast which consists of minimal accumulations across a majority of North Texas and perhaps some accumulations of up to an inch west of the Metroplex.

Much drier low-level air advecting in from the north should cause an abrupt tapering off of precipitation from northwest to southeast beginning mid morning and continuing through the afternoon. That dry air will also result in rapid improvement of sky conditions, with some clearing occurring across North Texas by mid afternoon. This should allow high temperatures to climb into the 40s.

The remainder of the forecast will be addressed in the long-term discussion to be issued this afternoon.

-Stalley

LONG TERM. /Issued 301 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019/ /Tomorrow Night through Early Next Week/

A rather deep/narrow tropopause fold will be over North and Central Texas tomorrow night, bringing strong subsidence and clear skies to the area. Ample radiative cooling will allow for the entire forecast area to drop below freezing Wednesday morning. Tonight's rainfall may allow for the development of patchy fog in low-lying watershed areas, however widespread dense fog is not expected.

The center of a surface high will move through Wednesday, creating southerly winds by the afternoon hours. Meanwhile, a progressive upper trough moving across the Intermountain West will move through the Southern Plains Thursday/Thursday night. The lack of sufficient moisture will keep the area precip free despite the marginal increase in mid/upper level cloud cover brought on my the advancing wave. Dry northwest flow will once again take hold of the region Friday and continue through the weekend as we remain between longwave troughs.

The ECMWF and NEAFS ensemble mean guidance has rather high run to run consistency with the development of a deep (and cold) longwave trough across the western CONUS this weekend. This trough will eventually swing through the Southern Plains in the early parts of next week. Ahead of trough passage, ample leeside cyclogenesis should enhance the return flow into the area, resulting in above normal temperatures Sunday and Monday. The passage of the trough will eject out the leeside low and drive another cold front through the area Monday/Tuesday with some precipitation developing with this system. The details are yet to come into focus, but there is high confidence of another strong cold front moving through the area early next week.

Bonnette

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Dallas-Ft. Worth 36 44 29 52 34 / 100 90 5 0 0 Waco 39 41 26 53 31 / 80 100 5 5 0 Paris 36 40 26 50 31 / 80 60 5 0 0 Denton 34 45 26 52 32 / 90 50 5 0 0 McKinney 35 43 27 51 32 / 90 80 5 0 0 Dallas 36 44 29 52 34 / 100 90 5 0 0 Terrell 38 41 26 52 32 / 100 100 5 0 0 Corsicana 40 41 28 53 33 / 80 100 5 5 0 Temple 41 41 27 53 32 / 60 100 5 5 0 Mineral Wells 34 46 24 51 30 / 100 60 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Decatur, Decatur Municipal Airport, TX9 mi52 minNNW 12 G 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy44°F30°F59%1016.3 hPa
Bridgeport, Bridgeport Municipal Airport, TX15 mi72 minN 10 G 1510.00 miOvercast46°F32°F59%1016.6 hPa
Bowie Municipal Airport, TX17 mi52 minN 12 G 1710.00 miLight Rain43°F35°F74%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLUD

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2 days agoNW5NW3N4N5N6N5CalmCalmN3NW3CalmNW3W3CalmCalmNE3CalmE4S5S3SE3S6SE4SE6

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.