Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
George, SC

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Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 8:27PM Thursday July 18, 2019 11:32 PM EDT (03:32 UTC) Moonrise 8:54PMMoonset 6:45AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ256 Coastal Waters From Murrells Inlet To South Santee River Sc Out 20 Nm- 939 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Overnight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and tstms late this evening, then isolated showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Isolated showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 939 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Southwest winds will continue through the weekend as bermuda high pressure remains anchored offshore. A cold front is expected to reach the area late Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near George, SC
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location: 33.37, -79.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 190144
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
944 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis
Hot and humid weather with dangerous heat index values will
continue through the weekend and into early next week. A cold
front should push across the carolinas late Tuesday or early
Wednesday, breaking the string of hot and humid days.

Near term through Friday night
As of 945 pm Thursday... One last round of convection fired up
over the past hour from just north of conway to near
whiteville. As low-level lapse rates continue to diminish with
the loss of daytime heating and continued convective overturning
of the atmosphere, odds are turning against any significant new
convection developing. The 00z hrrr shows current activity
dissipating, with some new showers developing around sunrise.

This late evening update featured adjustments to pops and sky
based on current radar and satellite trends, and to temperatures
where significant storm activity around kingstree has pushed
temps down to 72 on the last observation. Discussion from 700 pm
follows...

clusters of strong thunderstorms continue to affect the central
and eastern carolinas this evening as a weak mid level trough
provides enough enough lift to unleash surface-based CAPE of
3000 j kg. Winds aloft are modest so storm organization has been
limited to loose multicell clusters. Massed cold pools behind
the storms have produced forward-propagating linear features
with strong wind gusts the primary threat. With such warm air
aloft (freezing levels near 14000 feet) it's unlikely hail will
be a significant threat. Href ensembles and recent hrrr runs
indicate convection should gradually diminish this evening, with
only an isolated shower or storm possible by midnight along the
coast or offshore. Forecast pops have been adjusted accordingly
to focus on the cluster of storms sweeping into williamsburg
county from the west, and on the line of showers and storms
along the seabreeze outflow interaction from myrtle beach to
whiteville.

Where heavy rain occurred earlier (like marion, sc) temperatures
have already popped below forecast lows tonight. Once convection
dissipates, a moderate-strength southwest low level jet should
redevelop and keep the boundary layer reasonably well mixed
overnight. Although not quite as warm overall as last night, i
do think coastal and urban locations near CAPE fear have a good
potential of seeing another night of 80+ degree lows. Wilmington
has already had one such hot night this year (july 12) and may
ring up a second one if temps remain 80 or higher through
midnight tonight. A third may occur tomorrow if big storms avoid
the city.

Inland lows should generally fall to 75-78 degrees.

Other changes to the forecast were generally minor. Discussion
from 300 pm follows...

heat advisory conditions expected again on Friday as high heat
and humidity combine to produce dangerous heat with heat indices
up over 105. A few places will near excessive heat warning
criteria of 110 or higher. Temps will reach into the mid 90s
most places once again Fri with overnight lows between 75 and 80
both tonight and Fri night. The westerly downslope flow in the
lower levels should add to heat potential on fri, but should see
more clouds around to help balance it out a bit.

Mid level trough will shift slowly eastward trying to make its
way across the carolinas tonight through Friday. This trough
approaching from west will help to enhance convective
development in an already unstable atmosphere. All models point
at a late day spike in convection inland with activity
diminishing as it moves toward the coast closer to midnight.

Therefore best chc of greater storm coverage will be i-95
corridor late aftn and shifting toward the coast in a westerly
steering flow, but diminishing later this evening into early
overnight hour as we lose heating.

The mid level trough will remain aligned from SW to NE over the
carolinas as it eases slightly eastward overnight into fri. This
should help to maintain greater cloud cover and convective
activity with slightly higher SW winds through fri. This trough
is coming up against ridge over the atlantic, though which
should re-exert itself, especially heading into the weekend.

Depending on how quickly, should end up with limited, if any
activity heading into overnight fri, but another hot and humid
day expected on fri.

Short term Saturday through Saturday night
As of 300 pm Thursday... The latest guidance has trended drier
for Saturday but looking at model soundings profiles are similar
to previous days so I have maintained the chance pops area
wide. Not a lot of forcing is probably what guidance is keying
on but the sea breeze boundary and outflows should be enough.

Almost impossible to go with a dry forecast this time of year.

Highs in the lower to middle 90s combined with the dewpoints
well into the 70s will most likely warrant another heat
advisory.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
As of 300 pm Thursday... The main focus of the extended will be
on the events of the latter part of the period as guidance still
points to a decent mid level trough developing and or moving
across the eastern u.S. Of course there is the usual wobbling of
the front and its final position but it will likely be in the
area enhancing convection. The overall trend of the forecast
remains intact, cooling temperatures with increasing pops.

Aviation 00z Friday through Tuesday
As of 00z... Made a quick adjustment to the forecast given radar
trends with the north flank of the line of storms likely to
impact kmyr from 01-02z. Otherwise expecting convection to
gradually diminish through the mid late evening hours with the
loss of heating. As a result,VFR CIGS vsbys will dominate the
bulk of this TAF period overnight through Friday morning.

Additional convection Friday afternoon could lead to tempo MVFR
conditions but not enough confidence at this time to include
other than vcts.

Extended outlook...VFR conditions are expected outside any
isolated to widely scattered convection through Monday, with
increased chances of rain Tuesday.

Marine
As of 700 pm Thursday... Thunderstorms late this afternoon
affected the waters north of wrightsville beach. Now that the
storms are gone southwest winds are redeveloping across the this
area with speeds similar to that being observed south toward
cape fear and the grand strand area: 15-20 kt. These winds
should largely continue overnight, maintaining a choppy 5-second
dominant wave period with sea heights in the 4-5 foot range.

This is just shy of small craft advisory thresholds.

Thunderstorms in the myrtle beach area now at 7 pm should
weaken as they move across the beaches, but outflow winds from
these storms will create a couple hours of unsteady offshore
wind directions. Models suggest only scattered showers or
thunderstorms may redevelop overnight, perhaps organization late
tonight along any landbreeze fronts that might develop off the
south carolina coast. Discussion from 300 pm follows...

gusty SW winds will continue into tonight in tightened gradient
between trough inland and bermuda high. Gusts up to 20-25 kts
will continue in sea breeze and enhanced troughing through
tonight, but should diminish heading through Fri into the
weekend with a spike up in the aftn sea breeze again. The
southerly push will keep seas up between 3 and 5 ft overnight
but seas should come down to 2 to 4 ft late Fri into sat.

Winds and seas basically a persistence forecast for the
short term and much of the extended. Southwest winds of 10-15 knots
will continue with significant seas of 2-4 feet. Some uncertainty in
the wind directions show up toward the end of the period as a front
attempts to cross the area. Wind directions become basically erratic
as is typical with a decaying front but speeds with this feature
(also typical) will be very light.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Heat advisory from 11 am to 7 pm edt Friday for scz017-023-024-
032-033-039-054>056-058-059.

Beach hazards statement from 8 am edt Friday through Friday
evening for scz054-056.

Nc... Heat advisory from 11 am to 7 pm edt Friday for ncz087-096-099-
105>110.

Beach hazards statement from 8 am edt Friday through Friday
evening for ncz106-108.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tra
near term... Tra rgz
short term... Shk
long term... Shk
aviation... Srp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 5 mi47 min W 7 74°F 1017 hPa72°F
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 27 mi44 min 77°F
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 43 mi24 min W 14 G 19 78°F 83°F1019 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 58 mi32 min NNW 6 G 8 74°F 1019.5 hPa (+2.9)72°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown County Airport , SC5 mi37 minWSW 1010.00 miLight Rain72°F69°F94%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from GGE (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3SW5S3S7S8S11
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmS5S6N3CalmS4S3S3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Georgetown, Sampit River, South Carolina
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Georgetown
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Thu -- 05:53 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:10 AM EDT     3.41 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:52 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:38 PM EDT     4.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.13.52.81.910.40.20.61.52.43.13.43.32.92.31.50.80.30.20.61.62.63.54

Tide / Current Tables for Hagley Landing, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Hagley Landing
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Thu -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:37 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:44 AM EDT     3.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:36 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.93.632.31.40.70.20.20.81.72.533.22.92.51.91.20.60.20.20.81.82.83.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.