Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Peachtree City, GA

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2024

Showers have continued to move through North and, to a smaller extent, central Georgia. Rainfall rates at this time are modest to light. Moisture will continue to increase as we move through Monday and into Tuesday. PoPs will initially be concentrated around a more organized band following I-85 and "wiggling" southward through the afternoon and evening hours. Monday night into Tuesday sees PoPs increase across the entire CWA to widespread showers.

Instability looks relatively benign for all but a region stretching from Columbus to Macon and southward, where 500 J/Kg CAPE probs peak around 40-50% Tuesday afternoon. Low level shear and synoptic forcing peaking Tuesday afternoon/evening may be enough for some thunderstorms to develop or organize. While the risk is conditional on showers form earlier in the day, and overall low otherwise, a few storms/clusters could become more strong and pose an isolated severe threat Tuesday afternoon. The main hazard would be isolated damaging wind gusts, though a brief tornado cannot be fully ruled out given long hodographs. The severe threat is low.

Precipitation will taper off as the front fully pushes through the area on Wednesday. Model guidance remains strikingly sure of precip accumulations, with a widespread 2-3.5". Some isolated areas could see upwards of 4" with convection.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 233 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2024

Windy Wednesday:

The dominate weather force on Wednesday will be a strong cold front sweeping through Georgia. Rain showers Wednesday morning should come to an abrupt end as the front surges through, leaving mostly dry conditions for Wednesday afternoon. Gusty northwest winds behind the front will bring steady CAA to the region and this will produce falling temperatures over the course of the day. Most locations should reach their high temperatures for the day before sunrise. Then temperatures should fall over the course of the day, with most areas dipping into the 40s by late afternoon. Peak winds gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range are possible Wednesday afternoon. The EPS has been showing a consistent run to run signal for these wind gusts, while the GEFS has be a bit less gung ho. Our going forecast is a 50/50 blend of the NBM 50th and 90th percentiles to bump potential gusts a bit closer to EPS values. Given the current guidance there is about a 50% chance that a portion of the region may require a Wind Advisory on Wednesday. If gusts do reach 40 mph, isolated tree damage could occur given recent rainfall.

Thursday through the Weekend:

While weak ridging may develop by Friday, recent ensemble trends are favoring a more pronounced trough in the Plains. This trough may advance towards the northeast over the weekend increasing rain chances in Georgia. Forecast confidence in the temperatures trends late this week is relatively low. This is due to a "tug of war" between the developing upper level trough and a potential surface high along the East Coast. A stronger surface high would favor wedging and cooler temperatures (especially in northeast Georgia), while a stronger trough would favor southwest surface winds (WAA)
and a warming trend. For now or outlook maintains a weak warming trend, though eventual temperatures could easily be + or - 8 degree from the current forecast Friday through Sunday.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2024

VFR to MVFR conditions expected to continue deteriorating.
Consistent -RA builds across region through 12Z Monday. CIGS drop to IFR by 18Z and will stay low for an extended period of time.
VSBYs at 4SM will be mainly driven by precipitation, though locally higher precipitation rates may temporarily drop vsby further. Winds generally out of the south, with the near term period just on the E side. Winds return to W side Monday morning.

//ATL Confidence
06Z Update
Medium VSBYs and Winds tonight.
High all other elements.

SM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 60 55 66 45 / 90 70 100 100 Atlanta 64 58 66 42 / 90 70 100 90 Blairsville 59 51 63 34 / 100 70 100 90 Cartersville 64 56 68 38 / 90 70 100 80 Columbus 69 60 71 45 / 90 80 100 100 Gainesville 56 54 65 43 / 90 70 100 90 Macon 68 60 71 46 / 70 90 80 100 Rome 64 56 68 39 / 90 70 100 80 Peachtree City 65 58 68 40 / 80 70 100 90 Vidalia 71 59 76 54 / 40 70 40 80

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.