Marine Weather and Tides
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
|Sunrise 7:27AM||Sunset 5:52PM||Saturday January 23, 2021 3:55 AM MST (10:55 UTC)||Moonrise 1:38PM||Moonset 3:05AM||Illumination 76%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guadalupe, AZHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KPSR 231015 AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 315 AM MST Sat Jan 23 2021
SYNOPSIS. An active pattern featuring a series of storm systems will bring chances for rain, high elevation snowfall, and much cooler temperatures over the next several days. The first storm system will move through the area today and tomorrow, followed by a second colder storm system Monday and Tuesday. Desert highs will drop into the low to mid 50s as early as Sunday.
DISCUSSION. Like many of the past several early mornings, isolated light showers have developed over portions of the Phoenix area. These showers will trek eastward into Gila County through the early morning hours. Overall, the night has been fairly pleasant with temperatures still in the mid to upper 50s for most areas. For future perspective, Phoenix-Sky Harbor is currently 57 degrees, a temperature reading that could end up warmer than our many of our highs after today.
The next several days are on track to be the most active weather wise so far this winter with multiple shortwaves sweeping through the region producing multiple periods of precipitation. The first shortwave, currently over the NV/AZ border, is providing decent dynamics for showers and thunderstorms but most of those will remain well to our north over the Great Basin. However, a more dynamically impressive shortwave moving behind that wave will drop into Arizona today and Sunday creating the first main period for precipitation. This shortwave will reinforce upper level troughing over the Southwest, and then with subsequent embedded waves to follow, will produce another period of precipitation Monday- Wednesday morning.
For today, guidance remains relatively quiet regarding chances for showers and thunderstorms through most of the daylight hours today. Isolated showers, such as what is currently occurring, cannot be ruled out later this morning and afternoon. However, ensemble guidance indicates the peak window for shower development and coverage will begin this evening and last well into Sunday evening as the aforementioned dynamically strong shortwave digs southward into Arizona. For the Saturday-Sunday period, the NBM Rainfall probabilities show nearly all areas east of the western Maricopa County line having a 100% chance for at least measurable rainfall (0.01") and around 70-90% chance for receiving at least 0.25 inch. The probabilities for higher rainfall amounts are a bit less, tapering off from east to west, with a 40% chance of 0.50 inch of Phoenix and just 15% chance for half an inch around the Phoenix area. Rain chances farther west along the Colorado River and into southeast California, including El Centro, are not quite as high with varying 50-80% odds for measurable rain but less then 10% probability for 0.25 inch or higher. Snow levels will eventually drop down to 5000 feet by Sunday which should limit any accumulating snow to the highest peaks in Gila and Maricopa Counties and western Joshua Tree National Park.
However, strengthening jet dynamics, cooling aloft, and additional moisture increases could produce enough instability for convectively enhanced showers and/or thunderstorms, primarily east of the Colorado River late Saturday and then again Sunday. The latest available HREF mean MUCAPE signals instability will be the highest late Sunday morning and afternoon, perhaps aided by some surface heating, over the south-central Arizona desert. Any bit of instability will probably enhance shower potential, leading to locally heavier rainfall, and possibly isolated thunderstorms. Thunderstorms that do develop could produce locally gusty winds, lightning, and possibly small hail in addition to increased rainfall rates.
Confidence remains high that a second peak period for precipitation will open on Monday as additional embedded waves deepen the cold-core low over Arizona and allow an anomalously cold airmass to settle over the region. Global ensembles show H5 heights cooling down minus 30 to minus 35 Celsius Monday-Tuesday which would place near the minimum for NAEFS seasonal climatology. This will create this year's best snowmaking event so far as snow levels drop down to 4500 feet by Monday morning, 3000 feet by Monday night and then perhaps as low as 2500 feet by Tuesday morning. Areas around Globe are most likely to see 2-5 inches while portions of the outlying Phoenix area could see an inch or two, and perhaps even a few fleeting flakes somewhere in the heart of the Valley. The remote high terrain of Gila County, like Hilltop, could see 12-20 inches of snow while portions of the Four Peaks and Superstitions could see 10-18 inches. The latest snowfall forecast varies minimally from the most previous version but still seems rather exceptional for some places, perhaps a likely influence from more aggressive ensembles and the WPC forecast. The 90th percentile outcomes, reflecting the more extreme possibilities, could add another 2-8 inches onto those aforementioned totals. Two possible considerations that could make this more probable are orographic lift, depending on how the flow sets up, as well as convectively enhanced showers.
For elevations below 2500 feet, the precipitation chances and probabilities for Monday-Tuesday look very similar to the first period of Saturday-Sunday, although odds are tilting 10-20% higher and 0.01-0.10" wetter across the board. In all, pretty much everywhere will see their best chances to see rain in several months. Between now and Wednesday, lower desert areas like Phoenix, Casa Grande and Gila Bend are likely to see 0.30-1.00 inches of rain, although similar places around this area could see 1.25-1.50 inches. Western Arizona, along the Colorado River and southeast California are not anticipated to see nearly as much rain with rainfall totals ranging from a few hundredths up to 0.30 of an inch. If convection does happen, those areas are most favored to see those higher rainfall totals. Localized flooding problems cannot be ruled out but the concern for burn scar related flooding as well as flow into the Tonto Creek are bigger concerns at this time.
After the showers, our attention will turn towards the cold. Southeast California may hold onto the low 60s through the week, avoiding the coldest portion of the approaching air mass, while highs will drop into the mid to low 50s across south-central AZ as early as tomorrow and not likely to warm much until late in the week. The coldest period is likely to be Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with numerous areas reaching the freezing mark, including portions of the Valley. Hints of another weather system could mark a quick return of colder temperatures, rain and higher elevation snow by next weekend.
AVIATION. Updated at 0515Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
SCT-BKN coverage near 5 kft will continue the next few hours but will slightly overnight, with BKN-OVC coverage near 3-5 kft developing. The lowest ceilings will likely occur in the northern part of the metro area. These conditions will persist into the day Saturday. Winds will remain near 5-10 kts overnight, and will be mostly southwest to south. Winds increase again on Saturday to 8-12 kts with a few higher gusts and will gradually shift to west during the afternoon. A few rain showers may be possible anytime during the overnight hours but without a particular favored time, leading to a broadbrush VCSH forecast. Rain showers become much more likely Saturday afternoon. The best chance of showers overnight will be at KSDL and KDVT.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Gusty westerly wind at KIPL will diminish overnight but remain out of the west. A slight uptick in these westerlies to 10-15 kts will occur during the late morning. At KBLH southwest winds will continue near 10-15 kts, except for a period of 5-10 kts near dawn. Few to SCT coverage at 5-6 kft will continue through the period with periods of high clouds aoa 20 kts as well. No rain is expected.
FIRE WEATHER. Monday through Friday: No significant changes to the forecast . Multiple weather systems will bring chances for precipitation across all fire districts with the best chances east of the Colorado River. Some lower desert areas could see 0.25-1.00 inches of rain, perhaps even slightly more, by Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Snow is likely to fall for elevations above 5000 feet through the period but lowering snow levels could allow for accumulation as low as 2500-3000 feet by Monday/Tuesday. Breezy conditions are also likely to affect the entire area at times. Temperatures will also be significantly cooler with highs often in the 50s while lows reach at least the 30s. The increased moisture levels and cooler temperatures should keep RH values above 40%.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . None. CA . None.
DISCUSSION . AD AVIATION . Hodges FIRE WEATHER . AD
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ||2 mi||64 min||SSE 9||10.00 mi||Mostly Cloudy||57°F||42°F||58%||1010.4 hPa|
|Scottsdale Airport, AZ||15 mi||62 min||SE 5||10.00 mi||Overcast||55°F||41°F||59%||1010.9 hPa|
|Mesa / Falcon Field, AZ||17 mi||61 min||SE 8||10.00 mi||Overcast||56°F||41°F||57%||1010.5 hPa|
|Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ||19 mi||62 min||N 0||10.00 mi||Overcast||54°F||48°F||80%||1010.8 hPa|
|Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport, AZ||21 mi||60 min||SE 6||10.00 mi||Overcast||53°F||42°F||69%||1012.9 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KPHX
Wind History from PHX (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||E||E||Calm||E||SE||NE||NE||NE||SE||E||Calm||SE||SE||S||S||S||Calm||W||SE||E||E||E||E||E|
|2 days ago||E||NE||E||E||E||E||E||E||E||E|
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