Monday, November30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Guadalupe, AZ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:21PM Monday November 30, 2020 9:56 AM MST (16:56 UTC) Moonrise 5:45PMMoonset 7:26AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guadalupe, AZ
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location: 33.41, -112.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 301208 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 508 AM MST Mon Nov 30 2020

UPDATE. Updated 12Z Aviation Discussion.

SYNOPSIS. Near to slightly above normal temperatures will persist throughout the week. Breezy conditions can be expected this morning east of Phoenix, and Tuesday afternoon over southeast California. A strong storm system will enter from the north by the middle of the week, bringing another round of breezy conditions and a slight cool down. Unsettled weather may continue into the weekend.

DISCUSSION. Early morning satellite imagery across the CONUS shows a sharp trough moving through the mid-Mississippi Valley, while most of the Southwest is located within weak anticyclonic flow in the wake of this trough. Low-level wind fields show a channel of strong easterly flow across the Rio Grande Valley of Texas/southern New Mexico into southern and central Arizona. This will translate to strong easterly winds at the surface for much of the morning east of Phoenix, including parts of north-central Pinal County, southern Gila County, and northeast Maricopa County. The peak wind speeds should occur just after sunrise when boundary-layer mixing deepens, with gusts up to 40 mph possible. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through noon for these areas, before low-level wind fields generally weaken this afternoon. Minimum temperatures this morning will once again be chilly, with some parts of Pinal County approaching the freezing mark. High clouds will also spread eastward towards Arizona as a very subtle shortwave impulse moves across the Southwest. Daytime temperatures will reach the low 70s in the deserts today.

By Tuesday, attention turns to a pair of strong upper-level lows moving almost due southward out of the Northern Rockies towards the Four Corners/southern High Plains. This unusual pattern will undergo a complicated evolution into the middle of the week. Initially, the primary impacts will be an increase in northerly winds across southeast California and southwest Arizona on Tuesday afternoon, and easterly winds later Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning across south-Central Arizona. Model solutions are finally starting to converge on a reasonable scenario for the middle to latter portion of the week, showing the upshear upper low progressing southwestward into Arizona by early Thursday afternoon. While moisture will be lacking given the unfavorable continental trajectories, some isolated shower potential and increase in cloud cover will be possible near the track of the upper low on Thursday. However, there is still quite a bit of latitudinal spread in the position of this feature amongst model members, so trying to nail down details with much confidence is still difficult. GEFS ensemble means are still maintaining an open wave with less resolution in depicting a cutoff second low as shown in the ECMWF/GFS deterministic solutions, which may be a result of smoothing given the aforementioned spatial uncertainties.

Confidence in the forecast pattern decreases by Friday into this weekend, with increasing uncertainty about the possibility of a cutoff low in the vicinity of Arizona and its associated impacts. There are some indications that a cold closed low could linger across Arizona for 1-3 days, however, which would bring cooler temperatures than advertised, along with increased cloudiness and the potential for isolated showers. Will have to keep monitoring this as it could result in potential changes to the forecast moving forward.

AVIATION. Updated at 1205Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

Periods of calm winds and then easterly winds at 8-12 kts have been seen this morning and will likely continue through the pre- dawn hours. Without observations, it is difficult to say what speeds easterly winds are reaching 1-2 kft above the surface, but models have been consistent suggesting 35-40 kts. This may lead to LLWS. Winds aloft, and LLWS, should peak between 12-17Z this morning. Between 17-22Z, surface winds may gust to around 20 kts. Through the rest of the afternoon, winds will gradually subside and become light this evening, still with an easterly component. SCT to BKN high clouds aoa 20 kft will pass over the area through the TAF period.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Light winds are expected at both terminals through the TAF period, with speeds generally aob 8 kts. Light west at KIPL this morning become light northerly this afternoon and then return westerly tonight. At KBLH, winds will favor the north during the day and west tonight. Extended periods of variability is also possible at both terminals. SCT to BKN clouds aoa 20 kft will clear this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER. Wednesday through Sunday: A low pressure system center will progress southward across the Four Corners and lead to periods of breezy to windy conditions through at least Thursday. The highest confidence in elevated fire weather conditions will be Thursday afternoon along the lower Colorado River Valley, perhaps extending into south-central Arizona. The potential for breezy to windy conditions will continue Friday into the weekend, but is still somewhat uncertain given the possible evolution scenarios of the upper low. Min RH will be quite low each afternoon with moisture lacking, generally in the 10-15 percent range, with only modest overnight recovery.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . Wind Advisory until noon MST today for AZZ547-552-555.

CA . None.

DISCUSSION . Rogers AVIATION . Benedict FIRE WEATHER . Rogers


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ2 mi65 minE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F19°F19%1022.3 hPa
Scottsdale Airport, AZ15 mi63 minN 010.00 miFair58°F25°F28%1022.9 hPa
Chandler, Chandler Municipal Airport, AZ16 mi69 minE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy55°F30°F38%1023.7 hPa
Glendale, Glendale Municipal Airport, AZ16 mi69 minN 010.00 miClear59°F19°F21%1024.4 hPa
Mesa / Falcon Field, AZ17 mi62 minNE 410.00 miFair63°F19°F18%1022 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ19 mi63 minENE 810.00 miFair63°F19°F19%1022.7 hPa
Goodyear Municipal, AZ19 mi69 minN 610.00 miPartly Cloudy54°F21°F28%1024 hPa
Luke Air Force Base / Phoenix, AZ21 mi58 minNW 310.00 miFair58°F23°F26%1023.1 hPa
Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport, AZ21 mi66 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy55°F19°F24%1024 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHX

Wind History from PHX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW4W4W44W5NW4W5SW6SW6SW3NW4CalmCalmE6E10E11CalmCalmE12E11E10E9E10
1 day agoNE5E10E6CalmCalmCalmW4W9W7W3W3W3NW4CalmE6E3CalmE4E4E4CalmCalmE4E3
2 days agoW44W3SW4Calm6SW5W5W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE7E4CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmNE5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Phoenix, AZ
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.