Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Guadalupe, AZ

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 7:06PM Friday August 23, 2019 6:22 AM MST (13:22 UTC) Moonrise 11:59PMMoonset 1:14PM Illumination 45% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guadalupe, AZ
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location: 33.41, -112.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 231110
afdpsr
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
410 am mst Fri aug 23 2019

Update Updated aviation discussion.

Synopsis
Additional increases in humidity can be expected through Saturday
along with lower high temperatures. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will mainly be south and southeast of phoenix through
early Saturday, but a few isolated showers and storms will be
possible across the phoenix metro. Drier air will move in
beginning late Saturday, lasting through the first half of next
week, basically ending storm chances. Temperatures will climb
Sunday through early next week with next Tuesday and Wednesday
possibly topping 110 degrees across the lower deserts.

Discussion
As anticipated, much of southern arizona saw moist southerly low
level flow yesterday with surface dew points climbing into the
50s across the south-central arizona deserts. The increase in
moisture led to just enough instability to combine with a weak
trough moving through arizona for a few showers and storms to
develop mainly south of phoenix along an outflow from the
southeast.

Another gulf of california moisture surge is currently underway
and this will add to the already semi-moist boundary layer. This
should bring low level mixing ratios closer to 9-10 g kg, not
quite optimal for storms but enough if provided a trigger. Storm
chances late this afternoon and evening do look fairly similar to
yesterday's activity across southern maricopa and pinal counties
and this is mostly supported by high-res cams. Moisture levels
will be better today, but the weak ascent from the passing trough
will be missing. We will also be substantially cooler today
(roughly 5 degrees), yielding slightly less favorable lapse
rates and likely negating much of the positives from the increase
in moisture levels. Like yesterday, most storms will need to
first form over the high terrain with subsequent activity into
the lower deserts forming along any significant outflows or
outflow interactions. Seems likely the phoenix area will see at
least some showers and isolated thunderstorms, but they will most
likely be south and east of downtown phoenix and occur after
sunset.

Saturday is now looking like a mostly dry day, even though we will
start out with quite a bit of low level moisture in place. Models
show the upper level ridge reforming to our northwest on Saturday
providing a northerly dry flow aloft. Increasing heights aloft and
subsidence should be enough to hinder storm development for all
areas except for extreme southern arizona (pima county). Despite
the increasing heights and warming aloft, the increased boundary
layer moisture and weak mixing conditions will keep highs Saturday
slightly below normal.

The drying conditions will continue on Sunday and into early next
week as the upper level high builds southeastward over arizona.

This will dry out the boundary layer, prevent any storm activity
and bring a decent warming trend through early next week. The
hottest day still looks to be next Tuesday and model guidance has
been trending a bit warmer over the past several runs. After highs
of 106-109 on Monday, Tuesday will likely top 110 degrees in many
lower desert locations. If the warmer model trends continue, next
Tuesday and Wednesday may require an excessive heat watch soon
for some areas. Though it is still around a week away, there seems
to be some hope monsoonal moisture will be on the increase again.

Both the european and GFS ensemble means show a substantial
increase in monsoon moisture into southern arizona and even
southeast california beginning sometime late next week. We should
have a better idea of this potential by early next week.

Aviation Updated at 1110 utc.

South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, ksdl, and kdvt:
a somewhat atypical wind pattern is expected later this morning
as moderate southerly crosswinds develop across the area during
mid to late morning and into the early afternoon hours as periods
of gulf surge seep continue to occur. A very slight chance of
isolated thunderstorms and showers exists for regions just south
of the phoenix metro this afternoon and evening so storm outflows
can not be completely ruled out at the terminals. However the
chances and confidence remain too low to include mention in the
tafs at this time. Skies will remain mostly clear with periods of
few low, mid and high level clouds.

Southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
no significant aviation concerns anticipated through the taf
period under mostly clear skies. Expect mainly southerly winds at
kblh and southeasterly winds at kipl to become breezy this
morning and this afternoon respectively with a few gusts to 22
kts. Winds may also become light and variable at times overnight
and into the morning at kblh. Skies will remain clear to mostly
clear with periodic few low and high cloud decks.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Saturday through Thursday: minimum humidities are expected to
remain above 20% through the weekend and overnight recovery will
be at least good. Storm chances will be quite modest and limited
to south-central az. Temperatures will be at, or slightly below,
normal. Humidities trend down significantly Monday and Tuesday and
temperatures trend up - though not as high as we've seen in recent
days. Humidities are anticipated to trend upward Wednesday and
Thursday. Storm chances return as well. Apart from thunderstorms,
winds will follow familiar warm season diurnal patterns.

Spotter information statement
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... None.

Ca... None.

Discussion... Kuhlman
aviation... Sawtelle
fire weather... Aj


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ2 mi32 minSSE 310.00 miA Few Clouds86°F64°F49%1007.6 hPa
Scottsdale Airport, AZ15 mi30 minN 010.00 miFair83°F61°F48%1008.1 hPa
Chandler, Chandler Municipal Airport, AZ16 mi36 minN 010.00 miClear82°F64°F55%1010.5 hPa
Glendale, Glendale Municipal Airport, AZ16 mi36 minNNE 410.00 miA Few Clouds84°F48°F29%1010.5 hPa
Mesa / Falcon Field, AZ17 mi29 minN 010.00 miFair84°F63°F49%1007.9 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ19 mi30 minNNE 410.00 miFair81°F59°F47%1008 hPa
Goodyear Municipal, AZ19 mi36 minVar 310.00 miA Few Clouds81°F60°F51%1010.2 hPa
Luke Air Force Base / Phoenix, AZ21 mi85 minNNE 510.00 miFair83°F50°F32%1007.5 hPa
Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport, AZ21 mi33 minSE 510.00 miA Few Clouds81°F64°F58%1011.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHX

Wind History from PHX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10E7E94SE6E8SE9SW4NW4--W8NW46------------S8
G16
--CalmCalmSE3
1 day ago--SE7CalmSE343NW6W10
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W13W11----SW5--------E7E10SE7E9
2 days agoSE5SE6E6E64CalmCalmW7W7
G14
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G17
------------------E5E3--

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Phoenix, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.