Marine Weather and Tides
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
|Sunrise 5:18AM||Sunset 7:34PM||Sunday May 31, 2020 12:32 PM MST (19:32 UTC)||Moonrise 2:03PM||Moonset 2:03AM||Illumination 72%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guadalupe, AZHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KPSR 311741 AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1041 AM MST Sun May 31 2020
UPDATE. Updated Aviation Discussion.
SYNOPSIS. Strong high pressure persisting over the region will lead to temperatures around 10 degrees above normal across south-central Arizona today. Slightly cooler, but still above average temperatures are likely early next week as an area of low pressure slowly moves towards the west coast. As we move into mid week, high pressure will strengthen yet again allowing hotter deserts to approach the 110 degree mark. Increasing moisture may also bring a slight chance of thunderstorms to southern Gila County through at least the middle of next week before drying sets into the area Friday into the weekend.
DISCUSSION. Early this morning, the area of strong high pressure aloft had weakened a bit and shifted east with the high center now east of Arizona. 500mb heights had fallen below 590dm across eastern Arizona, and below 585dm across the far western deserts; the falling heights were the result of an area of low pressure pushing inland and passing by to the northwest of Arizona. Mid level moisture had circulated around the high and into eastern Arizona, and given the very high heat we have seen, isolated thunderstorms developed across the high terrain last night producing dense blowing dust into the Phoenix area along with a few lightning strikes. Despite the falloff in heights, boundary layer temps have yet to cool off and Phoenix reached 111 on Saturday. Given the higher humidity at low levels and surface dewpoints in the upper 40s to mid 50s combining with 850mb temps falling a degree or two, we should see hotter deserts cool slightly today with Phoenix falling to around 108. There will still be pockets of high heat risk in the central deserts (and the greater Phoenix area) today, and as such the excessive heat warning will remain in effect through 8 pm.
With surface temps still nearly 10 degrees above normal today, and with south/southwest flow aloft in place, mid level moisture will continue to flow across eastern Arizona and we will likely see another batch of high based, high terrain storms later this afternoon and evening to the east of Phoenix. Cannot rule out some blowing dust again working into eastern portions of the Phoenix area. Actually this pattern will remain in effect through Monday and the thunderstorm threat will remain unabated tomorrow.
For the past several days at least, operational and ensemble guidance from most model suites have been calling for a large upper trof or large closed low to develop along the California/northern Baja coast starting Monday and continuing through the middle of the week at least. Confidence is very high with respect to this feature. the problem has been that different models have a different idea on exactly where the low will set up; the European has tended to keep the low much further west and off the Baja Coast as compared to the GFS/GEFS or NAEFS. As such, the European has tended to keep a much stronger ridge in place over Arizona and correspondingly much higher temperatures as compared to the other guidance. We have been somewhat in the middle suggesting a gradually cooling trend from Monday into Thursday. However, it is now looking like the guidance is coming together and favoring the much hotter ECMWF solution. This keeps 500mb heights at or above 590dm in place over much of Arizona by Wednesday with little change into Thursday. Given the increased model to model consistency we have raised our high temperatures several degrees, keeping them just below heat warning levels Monday in to Tuesday but pushing hotter deserts up to around 111 Wednesday and Thursday. Should these trends continue, we will likely have to issue another excessive heat watch/warning most likely for Wednesday and Thursday. We decided to hold off for at least one more shift to ensure that this new model agreement will continue and will let the day shift evaluate further to see if the watch/warning is needed.
Again, we can expect isolated high based thunderstorms across high terrain east of Phoenix Monday with chances declining Tuesday into Wednesday as somewhat drier air finally intrudes from the west and warming aloft resulting in increasing stability to our east.
Models in general are showing pretty good agreement that the large upper low to our west will finally open up and move inland late Thursday allowing for a cooling and drying trend to set in to the area for Friday and Saturday. Highs Friday should fall to near 100 over much of the lower desert with little change into Saturday. As the low starts to approach the coast, moisture will again be drawn north and into east-central Arizona raising the chances for higher terrain storms late Thursday afternoon and evening but by Friday the much drier air spreading in will pretty much eliminate any further threat for convection.
AVIATION. Updated at 1740Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Variable wind directions may be problematic the next few hours although wind speeds will remain light during this time. There may also be periods of southerly cross winds before the westerly winds solidify across the terminal area between 19-21Z. Occasional afternoon gusts of 15-20 kts are also likely. Thunderstorms are not likely to enter the terminal area, and are most likely to be relegated to the mountains well east of the area, and to the southeast towards Tucson. Outflows from distant storms, as well as blowing dust, are possible this afternoon and evening, and most likely to impact the eastern portion of the Phoenix area.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Stronger westerly to southwesterly winds will be the primary aviation weather concern today with gusts reaching 20-25 kts during the afternoon and evening. Speeds will reduce after sunset with directions following typical diurnal trends and/or becoming variable during the overnight hours tonight.
FIRE WEATHER. Tuesday through Saturday: Moisture may remain ample enough for isolated afternoon thunderstorms mainly Tuesday and Thursday across much of eastern Arizona, including Gila County. Storms farther west into the lower desert area around Phoenix is less likely. Storms are not likely to produce much rain, but may create strong gusty winds, outflows, and lightning strikes. Otherwise, winds are likely to follow typical diurnal directional trends with some afternoon breeziness. High temperatures will stay well above seasonal normals through Thursday with hotter deserts up to around 110 Wednesday and Thursday. Cooler air will filter into the area Friday into Saturday lower highs to near the 100 degree mark. Minimum humidity values will drop into the 10-20% range with overnight recoveries rising into the 20-40% range. Even though these elements remain well below critical thresholds, the fire danger will remain heightened.
Date Phoenix Yuma ---- ------- ----
May 31 109 in 2012 113 in 2012
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ534- 537>556-559>561.
CA . None.
DISCUSSION . CB AVIATION . AD FIRE WEATHER . AD/CB CLIMATE . Hodges/MO
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ||2 mi||42 min||SW 5||10.00 mi||Mostly Cloudy||100°F||46°F||16%||1007.1 hPa|
|Scottsdale Airport, AZ||15 mi||40 min||Var 3||10.00 mi||Fair||98°F||46°F||17%||1007.9 hPa|
|Chandler, Chandler Municipal Airport, AZ||16 mi||46 min||SSE 7||10.00 mi||A Few Clouds||99°F||46°F||17%||1010.5 hPa|
|Glendale, Glendale Municipal Airport, AZ||16 mi||42 min||SSE 4||10.00 mi||Partly Cloudy||99°F||35°F||11%||1010.5 hPa|
|Mesa / Falcon Field, AZ||17 mi||39 min||Var 6||10.00 mi||Fair||99°F||45°F||16%||1007.3 hPa|
|Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ||19 mi||40 min||W 7||10.00 mi||Fair||98°F||43°F||15%||1007.9 hPa|
|Goodyear Municipal, AZ||19 mi||46 min||WSW 5||10.00 mi||Clear||99°F||33°F||10%||1010.2 hPa|
|Luke Air Force Base / Phoenix, AZ||21 mi||95 min||SSW 8||10.00 mi||Fair||97°F||31°F||10%||1008.5 hPa|
|Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport, AZ||21 mi||1.8 hrs||Var 3||10.00 mi||Partly Cloudy||97°F||48°F||19%||1011.5 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KPHX
Wind History from PHX (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||N||Calm||NW||W||SW||E||S||NE||NW||NW||NW||NW||Calm||NW||Calm||Calm||SW||Calm||Calm||E|
|2 days ago||W||W|
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