Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Guadalupe, AZ

SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/
Early morning WV imagery shows a compact, cyclonic circulation propagating south through Sonora while high pressure ridging builds into the SW Conus. In the northern stream, a progressive wave was breaking onshore over the Pacific NW/SW Canada aiding in the intensification and inland push of the aforementioned high pressure ridge to the south. This configuration will support large scale subsidence and surface pressure rises across the region while innocuous, low amplitude features settle over northern Mexico in the next 72 hours. The enhanced pressure gradient will support some gusty morning east winds across ridge tops and terrain gaps in south- central Arizona the next couple days. This is a very typical weather pattern for the season, and forecast wind speeds do not appear particularly unusual. Otherwise, H5 heights will hover in a 580- 585dm range which is slightly above average for early/mid November.
Ensemble numerical spread remains quite narrow resulting in excellent confidence of high temperatures 2F-5F above normal with morning lows slightly more anomalous.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/
An unusually early season sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event will be the primary influence towards hemispheric pattern amplification this week featuring ridge retrogression poleward and deep negative height anomalies descending into the NE Conus and East Pacific. During the initial stages of this transition, strong subsident high pressure with nearly steady midtropospheric heights will be situated directly over Arizona yielding a high confidence forecast of a very tranquil, near persistence temperatures a couple degrees above normal. Late in the week, there is growing ensemble agreement that shortwave energy will detach from the larger East Pacific trough and progress towards the SW Conus/northern Mexico.
However, significant spread persists regarding the timing of incoming negative height anomalies and jet energy that would influence regional weather. Given the evolution of this highly amplified and semi-blocked pattern, would generally prefer a solution towards the slower end of the ensemble envelope bringing heightened rainfall chances into the CWA Saturday/Sunday.
Regardless, run-to-run variations are still likely the next several days with respect to details in timing and location of the best forcing resulting in limited forecast confidence.

AVIATION
Updated at 0500Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No aviation weather concerns under mostly clear skies can be expected throughout the TAF period. Outside of periods of VRB conditions, E'rly winds will prevail through Sunday evening, with perhaps a few gusts in the mid-teens being observed during the late morning hours.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation concerns are expected during the next 24 hours under clear skies. Outside of extended periods of VRB conditions, winds at KBLH will switch between NW and NE, while KIPL experiences generally NW/W'rly flow.

FIRE WEATHER
Dry conditions will prevail across the region through the majority of the week with some enhanced morning ridge top and terrain gap breeziness the next couple days. Minimum afternoon humidity levels will primarily fall into a 20-30% range in western districts and 30- 50% in eastern districts with a tendency for drying towards the middle/end of the week. This will follow fair to good overnight recovery in western districts and good to excellent levels in eastern districts. Outside of the early week breeziness, wind speeds will be light with directional tendencies towards a northerly or easterly component.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.