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FXUS64 KBMX 030158 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 758 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

New SHORT TERM

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 745 PM CST SAT DEC 2 2023

A deary night across Alabama as most of the area is in a warm sector with surface dewpoints in the 60s. A cold front was located fro Huntsville to Columbus MS. Scattered to numerous showers were located along and ahead of he front. The showers were in response to a short wave trough tracking eastward through the Midwest states. Showers, mostly light, will continue through the overnight hours, producing rainfall amounts mainly less than one-tenth of an inch. Expect the back edge of the showers to be near a Tuscaloosa to Gadsden line by midnight, shifting to near Montgomery by sunrise.
The clouds will clear across the northwest counties by 6am with the clearing line reaching the I-20 corridor by mid-morning.
Removed any mention of thunderstorms.

58/rose

Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 110 PM CST SAT DEC 2 2023

As was advertised by most high-res guidance members yesterday, Central Alabama has been mostly cut off from deep moisture and instability this afternoon. Widespread showers and storms continue along the Gulf Coast, with more stratiform shower activity present across our far southeast counties. Locations along the I-20 corridor have been mostly within a dry slot at 700mb today with little to no measurable rainfall thus far. Additional showers are falling across the western and northwest counties associated with the now stalled surface front, upper level shortwave activity, and deep layer southwesterly flow. Eventually, we're expecting shower activity to somewhat fill in as the surface front to our northwest finally starts to move into Central Alabama overnight tonight. Lift from the surface front along with additional upper level shortwave activity will keep rain chances going through Sunday morning especially across the eastern and southeastern counties. Due to the stagnant conditions out ahead of the cold front and moisture pooling, patchy fog will be likely where rain showers don't develop along with overcast low stratus as winds become light overnight. Very mild temperatures will remain out ahead of the front with overnight lows remaining mostly steady in the 60s.

A kicker shortwave will finally help to clear Central Alabama of rainfall through the day on Sunday as upper level flow becomes westerly. A secondary push of cooler and drier air will enter into the area by Sunday afternoon as temperatures rise into the low to mid 60s.

56/GDG

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 110 PM CST SAT DEC 2 2023

The coming week will be dry across Central Alabama. High temps will be in the low to mid 60s Monday and Tuesday before a cold front moves through the area. Wednesday will be cooler before a warming trend into late week. Active weather in the way of rainfall chances will return next weekend. Minimal changes to temps and dew points were made to the the forecast compared to the previous cycle.

12

Previous long-term discussion: (Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 234 AM CST SAT DEC 2 2023

With the front well to the east of the area on Monday, we will have a prolonged dry period across the Southeast. There will be a front that comes through on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
However, this will be a dry front. High pressure will build back into the area by Wednesday afternoon. We will see high temperatures moderate into the mid to upper 60s by Tuesday, only to drop back into the 50s area wide on Wednesday behind the front.
Moderating temperatures again on Thursday and Friday. Low temperatures will be in the mid 30s to low 40s on Monday and Tuesday morning, with the coldest temperatures expected behind the second front. Temperatures on Thursday morning will be in the upper 20s to low 30s.

16

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 PM CST SAT DEC 2 2023

A messy next 12 hours across central Alabama with widespread IFR/LIFR flight conds due to cigs and light rain/drizzle. A cold front was located across far nw Alabama. The front will track southeast overnight and reach the I-20 corridor arnd 06Z and the I-85 corridor by 11Z.
The rain will end soon after frontal passage, but low cigs will continue thru 12Z. Cigs will improve quickly along the I-20 corridor between 12Z and 15Z as drier low level air moves in behind front. Improving cigs will reach MGM and TOI between 15Z and 18Z. VFR conds expected at all central AL TAF sites by 18Z.

58/rose

FIRE WEATHER

Widespread light rain is expected through early Sunday morning.
Minimum relative humidity values will remain above 50 percent through Monday morning. Southerly 20ft winds will increase today to 12-15 mph, becoming westerly to northwesterly at 10-12 mph on Sunday.

Drier air arrives to start next week, with minimum RH values dropping below 50 percent Monday afternoon, with northwesterly 20ft winds at 10-15 mph. Drier conditions are expected through next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 57 64 40 60 / 70 10 0 0 Anniston 59 65 44 62 / 60 20 0 0 Birmingham 58 64 46 59 / 70 10 0 0 Tuscaloosa 57 66 45 62 / 60 0 0 0 Calera 59 65 45 62 / 70 10 0 0 Auburn 63 67 46 63 / 70 30 0 0 Montgomery 64 68 47 63 / 60 20 0 0 Troy 64 69 48 66 / 70 40 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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