Sunrise 5:42 AM   Sunset 7:44 PM Moonrise 3:21 PM   Moonset 3:02 AM

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FXUS64 KBMX 180857 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 357 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2024

Southwesterly flow aloft persists this morning, with the trough still to our northwest. Ripples within this moist flow have led to another round of nocturnal showers and storms across south Central Alabama. This activity will continue to push eastward this morning, as enhanced mid level flow and low level jet shift southeast of the area. The main focus for additional thunderstorm development will shift south and east of the area later this morning. The current morning activity will help stabilize the airmass, limiting severe potential through the morning.

This afternoon, the trough will rotate across the area. Cloud cover will limit diurnal based instability, but cooler 500mb temperatures will push surface based CAPE values to 1500-2000 J/kg. Shear values are decreasing as wind fields weaken, but a marginal risk of storms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds is still justified for this afternoon and early evening.

Rain chances will end this evening, as drier air finally works into the area. With the presence of the trough nearby Sunday, a few showers or storms could develop across the far east during the afternoon, but expect any coverage to be isolated.

With widespread cloud cover and rain activity today, highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. With dewpoints near 70F, it will continue to feel humid. Tonight, lows remain in the 60s and depending on rain coverage, might need to add in dense fog in future forecasts. With drier air arriving Sunday, highs will still be in the lower 80s, but with a bit less humidity.

14

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2024

Early to mid next week appears warm and dry across the Deep South. A low-level ridge is progged to establish across the eastern CONUS with a broad zone of split upper-level flow. Southerly surface winds return to our area by Tuesday as high pressure centers near the East Coast, and this will help tilt afternoon highs into the 90s for some locations Tue & Wed. Meanwhile a lingering surface front will drape from near the ArkLaTex through the Ohio Valley on Thursday, behind a departing Great Lakes low pressure system. Medium-range guidance depicts this front near/north of the I-40 corridor, but with an axis of higher PWs spreading into the Tennessee Valley. As such, there could be isolated to scattered afternoon convection Thursday, but better PoPs are on Friday due to a shortwave currently progged to pass over the Tennessee Valley. It's too early to tell if there will be any impacts.

40/Sizemore

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2024

Widespread low clouds cover the area tonight, with a mix of MVFR and IFR cigs. Winds remain out of the southeast at less than 6kts.
An area of rain and embedded thunderstorms is spreading northeastward with impacts at MGM expected to start the period.
This wave of convection will move across the area overnight, mainly impacting MGM and TOI, with cigs IFR cigs expected at all terminals. During the day Saturday, a focus of continued convection will be across the southeast through the day, while a second area of showers and storms is expected across northern terminals. Will handle this activity with PROB30s.

Southeasterly winds will veer to the south and then to the southwest during the day Saturday, with speeds less than 10kts.
Some improvement in cigs is expected by Saturday afternoon but will keep cig heights less than 3kft through much of the afternoon. Rain chances end from west to east through the late afternoon/early evening.

14

FIRE WEATHER

An area of showers and storms will move across south Central Alabama this morning, before scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected area wide this afternoon and evening. Min RH values today will range from 65 to 75 percent, with southwesterly 20ft winds at less than 10mph. Rain chances decrease Sunday, and along with warmer daytime temperatures, minimum RH values will be in the 50 to 60 percent range. 20ft winds become north to northwesterly, but remain at 5-8mph.



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 78 61 83 61 / 70 40 20 0 Anniston 79 62 83 62 / 60 40 20 0 Birmingham 79 63 84 64 / 60 40 10 0 Tuscaloosa 81 63 86 64 / 60 40 0 0 Calera 80 63 84 64 / 60 40 10 0 Auburn 77 64 81 64 / 70 40 20 0 Montgomery 80 65 84 65 / 70 40 10 0 Troy 78 65 83 64 / 80 40 10 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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