Marine Weather and Tides
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 5:16AM||Sunset 7:40PM||Sunday June 13, 2021 8:02 AM MST (15:02 UTC)||Moonrise 7:56AM||Moonset 10:39PM||Illumination 13%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glendale, AZHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KPSR 131219 AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 519 AM MST Sun Jun 13 2021
UPDATE. Updated Fire Weather Discussion.
SYNOPSIS. A significant warm-up is expected through the remainder of this weekend, with extreme temperatures lasting into next week. High temperatures across the lower deserts are forecast to climb above 110 degrees today and likely topping out in a 114 to 118 degree range for most, if not all, of next week. Excessive Heat Warnings are currently in effect across south-central and southwest Arizona, as well as southeast California through Friday. Very dry conditions will persist for another day or two before chances for isolated storms arise across the Arizona high terrain by the middle part of next week.
DISCUSSION. Last several hours of water vapor satellite imagery has shown a strengthening ridge of high pressure building over the Southwest while farther east, a minor upper level shortwave embedded in the ridge's eastern periphery was able to spark some late evening convection over eastern NM and the Texas Panhandle. However, the atmosphere over us is still very dry with precipitable water values around 0.25" while deeper moisture remains far to the south and east. Otherwise, temperatures across the Phoenix area are running 3-5 degrees warmer than this time yesterday in the wake of yesterday's excessive heat.
The anticipated progression of the ridge has not changed much from previous forecasts with the H5 center drifting westward today before settling near the Four Corners region by Monday/Tuesday. With the westward drift, H5 heights will increase across the eastern half of Arizona today, reaching 592-595 dm, and causing a 3-5 degree warming trend today. Excessive Heat Warnings now stretch from Cochise County northward through central Yavapai County. Afternoon temperatures across the lower desert areas in and around Phoenix will reach the 112-115 degree range this afternoon.
Once the ridge settles over the Four Corners, H5 heights will rise by another 2-5 dm across the forecast area, reaching the 99th percentile of climatology. This will support even hotter temperatures with lower desert highs easily reaching 114-120 degrees Monday through Friday, and prompting Excessive Heat Warnings to engulf the entire forecast area. This type of heat is deadly not just in the sense of the day-to-day Heat Risk, but also for the cumulative affect of extreme heat day after day with little reprieve in the immediate future. If temperature forecast trends hold, expect the excessive heat to continue through at least next Saturday with highs forecast to remain around 115 degrees. Global ensembles indicate a modest cooling trend to begin sometime next weekend or early next week, with GEFS and EPS mean temperatures then settling around 110 degrees.
Confidence for the most extreme heat is highest from Tuesday through Friday, as guidance and latest forecast (and past several forecasts) favor new extreme heat records. For Phoenix, chances for tying or breaking daily high temp and/or warm-low temp records is well above 50% Tue-Fri. Moreover, NBM probabilities for meeting certain temperature thresholds in Phoenix those days are a jolting 99% for 110 degrees and 60-75% for 115 degrees. The probabilities for 120 degrees are much lower and vary between 5 and 13% (Friday). NBM probabilities also show varying chances in excess of 50% for new records in both Yuma and El Centro, and even a 35% chance for reaching 120 degrees at either place Friday. There is little doubt that some places will reach 120 degrees in southeastern CA and western AZ considering the anticipated strength of the ridge and the area's overall lower elevation.
We could be fortunate enough to shave a few degrees off forecast this week on any given day as the intense heat begins to draw moisture into the region. Both the GEFS and EPS mean PWs near 1.00" as early as Tuesday. Daytime heating and moisture increases will help destabilize the atmosphere during the afternoons and evenings which could be enough for convection over the Arizona higher terrain northeast and southeast of Phoenix. Convection could also be enhanced by subtle upper level disturbances, similar to what multiple deterministic models and the HREF indicate for Monday just south of the Arizona/Mexico border. PoPs and thunderstorm chances in the lower desert are not great, just between 5-15% most days, with little confidence in any particular outcome for any given day (outside of the excessive deadly heat). If thunderstorms do develop, the greatest threats will be lightning and very gusty winds. Distant thunderstorms may also be capable of producing long-traveling outflow winds that could reach the Phoenix area, and depending on their origin and trajectory, could produce blowing dust as well.
AVIATION. Updated at 1204Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Winds will favor diurnal patterns through the next 24 hours. Calm to light variable winds are likely this morning before shifting westerly by 18-19Z. Winds this afternoon may reach up to 10-12 kts with gusts up to 15-20 kts. Skies will be mostly clear with FEW high clouds and even a few lower clouds around 12 kft AGL at times.
Minor density altitude impacts may begin as early as this afternoon as surface temperatures may briefly reach 115 deg F mark for the first time this year. More prolonged periods of 115-118 deg F temperatures are likely on Monday through Friday afternoon, with brief 119-121 temperatures possible.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Light winds are favored at both terminals through the morning. Directions through the day will mainly be from the south, with some variability. Speeds up to 10-14 kts will be possible in the afternoon at KBLH, with gusts to around 20 kts, while KIPL sees 6-10 kt winds. Skies will be mostly clear with FEW high clouds.
FIRE WEATHER. Tuesday through Saturday: Very hot temperatures will be the primary concern, especially for any ongoing fire operations, as lower elevations will see highs in the 112-120 degree range. The higher elevations will not be spared from the heat either with highs reaching 95-105 degrees. Afternoon minimum RH values will struggle to remain above 10% most days. Overnight RH recoveries will vary somewhat from night to night but still mostly reach the 20-40% range. Winds will behave more typical, with occasional afternoon breezes, and directions following diurnal/terrain influences. Chances for storms over the AZ high terrain, like the Rim and White Mtns, is 15-25% most afternoons with low chances, 5-15%, elsewhere. Strong winds are the primary concern for any storms that do develop and even very distant storms may produce long traveling outflow winds. Chances for wetting rains is very low, below 5%.
Daily Record Highs
Date Phoenix Yuma El Centro ------------ ------- ---- --------- Sunday 6/13 114 (1936) 115 (1940) 118 (1940) Monday 6/14 115 (1987) 119 (1961) 117 (1940) Tuesday 6/15 115 (1974) 118 (1917) 115 (1940) Wednesday 6/16 115 (1974) 119 (1917) 114 (1974) Thursday 6/17 114 (2015) 115 (1981) 115 (1971) Friday 6/18 115 (2015) 116 (2015) 117 (2015)
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Friday for AZZ537-540>556- 560>562.
Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MST Friday for AZZ534-538-539-557>559-563.
Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Monday to 8 PM MST Friday for AZZ530>533-535-536.
CA . Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Monday to 8 PM PDT Friday for CAZ560>570.
DISCUSSION . AD AVIATION . Benedict FIRE WEATHER . AD CLIMATE . Kuhlman
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ||3 mi||71 min||ESE 5||10.00 mi||A Few Clouds||82°F||25°F||12%||1006.9 hPa|
|Glendale, Glendale Municipal Airport, AZ||13 mi||68 min||N 0||10.00 mi||Clear||81°F||28°F||15%||1009.8 hPa|
|Scottsdale Airport, AZ||14 mi||69 min||SSE 3||10.00 mi||Fair||78°F||39°F||25%||1007.5 hPa|
|Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ||17 mi||69 min||N 0||10.00 mi||Fair||82°F||19°F||9%||1007.2 hPa|
|Goodyear Municipal, AZ||17 mi||75 min||N 0||10.00 mi||Clear||77°F||27°F||15%||1009.5 hPa|
|Luke Air Force Base / Phoenix, AZ||18 mi||2.1 hrs||N 0||10.00 mi||Fair||74°F||26°F||17%||1006.6 hPa|
|Mesa / Falcon Field, AZ||19 mi||68 min||NE 6||10.00 mi||Fair||86°F||18°F||8%||1007.3 hPa|
|Chandler, Chandler Municipal Airport, AZ||19 mi||75 min||N 0||10.00 mi||Clear||77°F||36°F||22%||1009.8 hPa|
|Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport, AZ||24 mi||72 min||E 5||10.00 mi||A Few Clouds||79°F||23°F||12%||1010.5 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KPHX
Wind History from PHX (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||E||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||SW|
|2 days ago||E||S||W||Calm||W||W|
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