Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pawleys Island, SC

KEY MESSAGES
1) Potential exist for minor coastal flooding during evening high tides along the Lower Cape Fear River and at the beaches due to the new moon on Saturday.

2) The threat for hazardous weather remains very low through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Potential exist for minor coastal flooding during evening high tides along the Lower Cape Fear River and at the beaches due to the new moon on Saturday.

Water levels along the Lower Cape Fear River near downtown Wilmington and at the beaches should reach just above minor coastal flooding thresholds within a couple hours either side of the time of the evening high tides over the next few days. At the beaches, high tide occurs around 7 pm this evening and 8 pm Saturday evening. Along the Lower Cape Fear River, high tide takes place around 9 pm this evening and 10 pm Saturday evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2: The threat for hazardous weather remains very low through the middle of next week.

Mainly dry conditions expected through mid next week which isn't good news as far as the drought is concerned. Following the dry W/NW flow in place Friday with temps slightly below normal, warmer temps are expected thereafter with highs in the 80s to even low 90s at times inland. Fortunately, moisture levels shouldn't be high enough to support heat indices much higher than air temps so no concern for reaching Heat Advisory criteria (105 degrees). More troughing/moisture on Thu and Fri will bring by far the best rain chances of the period.

AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High confidence exists in VFR prevailing through the period as the column remains dry other than some passing patches of cirrus from time to time. The sea breeze circulation did not make much inland progress today. Light and variable winds are expected for much of tonight, then the sea breeze will allow for more onshore flow tomorrow late morning into the early evening. Fog chances remain low tonight due to mostly dry air.

Extended Forecast... Predominantly VFR through Tuesday. Early- morning fog becomes possible from Sunday morning onward as low- level moisture increases.

MARINE
Through Saturday... High pressure will shift offshore this afternoon, causing winds to swing around to between south and southeasterly by sunset with speeds mainly between 5-10 kts.
Expect similar winds through Saturday, with some nearshore enhancement to southeasterly wind speeds due to the sea breeze.
Southeasterly 7-8 sec swells are expected to decrease somewhat through Saturday to 2-3 ft while mainly 1 ft wind waves develop out of the south to southeast.

Saturday night through Wednesday... High confidence in conditions staying well shy of Small Craft Advisory levels as high pressure generally prevails resulting in weak pressure gradients. Significant wave heights look to stay only 2-3 ft.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.