Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pawleys Island, SC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 6:05PM Thursday February 20, 2020 6:59 PM EST (23:59 UTC) Moonrise 5:11AMMoonset 3:25PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ256 Coastal Waters From Murrells Inlet To South Santee River Sc Out 20 Nm- 606 Pm Est Thu Feb 20 2020
.gale warning in effect through Friday afternoon...
Tonight..N winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early this evening.
Fri..N winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. A chance of rain in the morning.
Fri night..N winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Sat..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Sat night..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NE winds 5 kt, becoming s. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..E winds 5 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft. Showers.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely through the day, then a chance of showers through the night.
AMZ200 606 Pm Est Thu Feb 20 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Low pressure deepening offshore today will rapidly intensify as it accelerates ne away from the carolinas tonight. Gale warning is in effect through Friday with storm conditions well offshore. Cold canadian high pressure will follow late Friday through the upcoming weekend with winds and seas subsiding.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pawleys Island, SC
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location: 33.45, -79.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 202312 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 612 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure off the Carolina coast will continue to intensify before accelerating away from the area tonight through Friday. Cold rain will transition to snow tonight with some accumulation possible, mainly across Southeast NC, before coming to end Friday morning. Cold and dry high pressure will dominate this weekend. Warmer weather will arrive early next week ahead of the next frontal system. Cold and dry high pressure will build in behind cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for all of NC counties except coastal New Hanover and coastal Brunswick, and for Marlboro and Dillon counties in South Carolina through tonight. Cold rain falling across the area will mix with and then transition to sleet and snow. Still northerly winds and cooling temps at the sfc will be overrun by warmer SW flow aloft. This isentropic lift will continue to produce rain as a deep enough layer of warm air remains between 2 and 8 k ft. This area of warm air will shrink as the night progresses allowing a transition to frozen pcp. Between 7 and 10 pm, inland areas mainly west of I-95 corridor will see the warm nose shrink from 4 to 6 kt ft to all below 0c. This warm nose should remain far enough aloft to allow for refreezing and sleet before switching to all snow. The transition will occur closer to midnight as you move east and right along the coast, between 12 am and 4 am. At the same time, the low will track NE, but will then track far enough away to drag some drier air in above 15 k ft. The coldest air will remain just north of forecast area across NC which will allow for an earlier transition and the ability to snow as greatest moisture is present, while places south will cooling chasing the moisture, leaving less snow potential as the dendritic growth zone necessary for ice and snow formation dries out overnight. Therefore snow amounts will generally reach up to near 2 inches over areas that change over quicker this evening. Most of SC may just see a quick bit of snow as pcp winds down toward Fri morning as low moves away from area. Enhancement from the mid to upper levels may help to create a final bit of snow early Fri morning toward the NC coast before deep NW flow develops with plenty of dry and cold air on Fri.

Overall, expect temps to drop from around 40 this afternoon to near freezing by early morning with rain transitioning to sleet and snow across mainly NC. Gusty northerly winds will make it feel cooler with wind chills in the 20s this evening into overnight. Expect clearing through Fri morning with frigid weather through Fri. Temps will cool initially and then rise only several degrees to around 40 most places in deep CAA through Fri.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. The progressive weather pattern in the mid-levels continues through the extended. The shortwave trough lifts out associated with tonight's snowfall. The region will be seeing heights increase as a short-lived ridge builds into the area before two more waves approach the area next week.

At the surface, high pressure will be building into the area. There will be a lack of moisture as the precipitable waters range between 0.1 and 0.2 which is the near 10% moving climatological average.

As the high pressure builds into the region, the 850 temperatures Friday night will be around -3C and will slowly warm to +2 to +3.5C as the 850 mb southwest flow brings in warmer air. This warm air advection causes the lows Thursday night to dip into the middle 20s inland and the higher 20s at coast. On Saturday night the lows will be around 30 inland and lower to mid 30s at the coast. The highs on Saturday will bounce back into the lower 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. In the mid-levels, a ridge will be over the southeast United States through Wednesday. This ridge will be eroded first by a cutoff low over Southern California as it lifts toward the upper Midwest Monday night, and the second shortwave from the Pacific northwest merges into the former shortwave, and this carves out a deep trough over the eastern two-thirds of the United States.

At the surface, lots of uncertainty as the 12 UTC ECMWF brings the first cold front on Tuesday but develops a low to our west and intensifies as it moves off the New Jersey coast. The 12 UTC GFS is faster, and the low is near Lake Erie. The impact will be a more intense pressure gradient, a.k.a., stronger winds.

So with these systems Monday through late Wednesday looks to be wet. High Temperatures: Sunday and Monday: Around 60 Tuesday and Wednesday: Upper 60s and mid-60s at the beaches Thursday: Highs in the middle 50s.

Low Temperatures: Sunday Night: The mid to upper 30s inland. The lower 40s at the beaches. Monday Night: The upper 40s inland SE North Carolina to the lower 50s elsewhere. Tuesday Night: The middle 50s. Wednesday Night: The low to middle 40s. Thursday Night: The Low 30s inland to the middle 30s coast.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. MVFR conditions are transitioning to IFR across the area as cigs slowly lower. Mainly MVFR vsbys outside of the moderate precip this evening. A cold rain will continue, before transitioning to a wintry mix late this evening near FLO and LBT. This mix will slowly make its way down to the coastal terminals, before transitioning to a sleet/snow mix after midnight. Snow/sleet continues through the late overnight hours and tapers off Friday morning. Ceilings lift back into MVFR around sunrise Friday morning, becoming VFR later in the TAF period.

Extended Outlook . VFR will persist through the weekend as cold, dry Canadian high pressure prevails. Flight restrictions will likely return on Monday.

MARINE. A Gale Warning is in effect from through 6pm Friday.

Hazardous marine conditions will continue as deepening low pressure about 150 miles off the coast, moves ENE just off the Carolina coast and then away from local waters by midday Friday. NE winds increase to around 25-35 knots with gusts up to 40 knots will continue tonight into Fri. Seas will peak at 7 to 10 feet on Friday before beginning to improve as the low moves out to sea late Friday. The Gale will transition back to a Small Craft Advisory at some point Fri aftn.

High pressure will reign over the waters thorough Monday evening with a cold front poised to cross the coastal waters on Tuesday. Winds will be offshore around 20 knots Friday evening and will weaken to around 10 knots by late Saturday afternoon. Winds will become less than 10 knots Sunday into early Monday. Winds will shift to the southeast and increase to 15 knots late Monday ahead of the cold front. Winds are expected to reach 15 to 20 knots on Tuesday.

Seas will still be over 6 feet, especially at 20 miles off the coast, and will drop below 6 feet on Saturday morning. Seas will fall to 1 to 3 feet by Sunday. Seas will approach 5 to 6 feet on Tuesday, and a small craft advisory may be needed.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for SCZ017-024. NC . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for NCZ087-096- 099-105>107-109. MARINE . Gale Warning until 6 PM EST Friday for AMZ250-252-254-256.

SYNOPSIS . ILM NEAR TERM . RGZ SHORT TERM . RH LONG TERM . RH AVIATION . MAS/IGB MARINE . RGZ/RH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 8 mi75 min NNE 12 41°F 1020 hPa40°F
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 18 mi60 min 41°F
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 43 mi52 min E 23 G 33 41°F 55°F1021.1 hPa
41119 43 mi40 min 55°F3 ft
SSBN7 43 mi38 min 3 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown County Airport , SC15 mi65 minNNE 14 G 2210.00 miRain39°F37°F93%1021.3 hPa
Myrtle Beach International Airport, SC19 mi64 minN 19 G 277.00 miLight Rain and Breezy41°F37°F89%1021.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGGE

Wind History from GGE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7N6NE8NE6NE6NE5NE4N6NE8NE7NE6
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1 day agoS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmW4NW4NW6N6NE10
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2 days agoE4CalmCalmCalmCalmE3E4E3NE4NE4NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Midway Inlet North, Pawleys Island, South Carolina
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Midway Inlet North
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:11 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:40 AM EST     4.66 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:15 PM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:25 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:52 PM EST     3.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:05 PM EST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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00.71.72.83.84.54.64.33.62.61.50.70.20.41.22.133.73.93.632.21.20.4

Tide / Current Tables for Allston Creek, South Carolina
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Allston Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:23 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:11 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:17 AM EST     4.49 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:05 PM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:24 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:04 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:28 PM EST     3.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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00.10.81.9344.54.43.93.22.21.30.50.20.51.32.33.23.73.73.32.71.91

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.