Thursday, August13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pawleys Island, SC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 8:05PM Thursday August 13, 2020 1:10 PM EDT (17:10 UTC) Moonrise 12:19AMMoonset 2:42PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ256 Coastal Waters From Murrells Inlet To South Santee River Sc Out 20 Nm- 1240 Pm Edt Thu Aug 13 2020
This afternoon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Numerous showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the morning.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the morning.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1240 Pm Edt Thu Aug 13 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will remain across the western atlantic while weak low pressure drifts slowly northward through late week. A weak front will approach the coast this weekend shifting offshore late Sunday into Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pawleys Island, SC
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location: 33.45, -79.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 131437 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1037 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure across the western Atlantic will maintain southerly winds, along with seasonably warm and humid conditions. Weak low pressure will produce greater coverage of storms into the weekend.

UPDATE. Forecast on track as weak low just east and low level trough, evident running from SW to NE just inland of the coast, drifts northeast through today along with upper level low. Focus will remain on localized flooding in storm development today with weak steering flow and very high pcp water values.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. GOES-East in geostationary orbit, presently sampling a stream of precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches strewn about the area, and lifted indices of -1 to -2. An upper weakness with equally faint cyclonic circulation was supporting deep convection offshore. This feature is expected to drift NE to offshore of NC Outer Banks by Friday, as an upper trough west of the area slowly migrates east.

Marine outflows into unstable air with light steering currents will lead to isolated waterspouts beneath rapidly developing convection, some of which could move ashore later this morning. This may enhance coastal convergence, leading to decent showers chances for coastal zones, especially Cape Fear region this morning.

New convection inland, aside from the coastal activity, should began to flare up around 1 pm, scattering the landscape through early evening with showers and TSTMs, rain briefly heavy in spots. There is no discernible motion to storms today, and peripheral outflows with newly spawned convection will outpace any single storm movement. The storm stagnancy and high PWAT indices may lead to excess water in spots, and ponding on highways.

Friday similar, except the upper weakness offshore may have less impact over the coastal interior, as it becomes positioned south of Cape Lookout, but still close enough for coastal showers Friday morning. Because of clouds and rain, max-T near to a couple degrees below normal this period.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Weak upper low will push off to the NE on Friday evening as a deeper upper-trough approaches the area from the west. Thunderstorm coverage will be scattered to widespread on Saturday as the apex of the trough and an associated frontal boundary approach the southern Appalachians. Locally, wind field throughout the sounding shows very little speed or directional shear and storm motion will be on the order of 10-20 knots. With these parameters, it is likely that severe weather will be limited to one or two exceptional performers with a relatively low flooding threat. With the upper-level energy available and the moisture-laden atmosphere ahead of the front, expect widespread thunderstorm coverage to linger into the overnight hours.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Upper trough will shift eastward on Sunday and push a weak frontal boundary through the area. Thunderstorm activity should be limited to the coast on Sunday afternoon with afternoon storms battling much drier mid- and upper-level air. Mostly quiet on Monday before the upper trough digs southward over the central part of the CONUS again on Tuesday. This will bring a pattern of elevated storm chances each afternoon through the middle of next week. Temperatures will generally remain in the upper 80s to near 90, right at the climo mark for mid-August.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. VCSH and VCTS much of this 12Z TAF cycle, generally isolated to scattered in coverage, but impacting most terminals today. A disturbance located offshore of the Cape Fear region will sustain a chance of SHRA and TSTM at coastal terminals through the period. Some residual MVFR/brief IFR fog this morning may persist through 13-14Z, the thickest of it being at the more inland terminals. Wouldn't be surprised to see brief IFR in and around storms this afternoon. Convection settles down after sunset. Think KFLO and KLBT could see some persistent areas of MVFR/IFR fog before sunrise Friday morning. Fog may also form along the coast, but not as thick.

Extended Outlook . TSTMs, isolated to scattered will continue through the extended period. Patches of morning fog generally between 8z-11z should be expected, or localized MVFR stratus. Winds outside of TSTMs should remain light, and southerly.

MARINE. TSTMs offshore posing an early hazard over the 0-20 nm waters, as outflows are apt to bring more TSTMs closer to shore this morning. Isolated waterspouts and dangerous cloud to sea lightning is the expectation through most of morning, and mariners should obtain radar updates before a venture out. Away from TSTMs, light S winds in general this period. The sea spectrum will be composed of S-SSW waves 1 foot every 4-5 seconds and SE waves 1-2 feet every 9 sec. Elevated TSTM coverage should be expected through Friday as an upper low just offshore drifts slowly to the NE, offshore of the Outer Banks by Friday. Strong TSTMs offshore could produce locally higher seas than forecast, and may be localized. Lightning activity to run high this period, with a higher than normal risk of a water spout.

Southerly Bermuda-driven flow will continue through the weekend and into early next week. A weak frontal boundary will approach the area this weekend and lead to a tightening of the pressure field. Showers and thunderstorms appear likely through the end of this week and into the weekend. The aforementioned front will produce winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots on Friday and Saturday. This brief fetch will be enough to push waves to 2-4 feet through the weekend. The boundary is expected to move through the area on Sunday and may produce offshore winds for a brief period into Sunday evening. Thunderstorm chances diminish on Sunday night and into Monday before ramping back up again by the middle of next week. Seas will generally be 2 to 3 feet with no significant swell next week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . ILM UPDATE . RGZ NEAR TERM . MJC SHORT TERM . 21 LONG TERM . 21 AVIATION . IGB MARINE . MJC/21


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 8 mi86 min S 4.1 82°F 1016 hPa76°F
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 18 mi53 min 80°F
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 43 mi63 min W 9.7 G 14 82°F 84°F1016.5 hPa
41119 43 mi54 min 84°F3 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown County Airport , SC15 mi76 minSSW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F73°F79%1016.9 hPa
Myrtle Beach International Airport, SC19 mi75 minS 710.00 miFair82°F75°F82%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGGE

Wind History from GGE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5SE5S8S5SW6S7SW6SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3W4CalmW4NW3CalmCalmCalmS5SW4
1 day agoSE4SE8S9
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S10S7S5S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE8
2 days agoS10S8SE9S5S6S8S6S4CalmSW4W6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3W4SW5SW3W3

Tide / Current Tables for Midway Inlet North, Pawleys Island, South Carolina
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Midway Inlet North
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Thu -- 01:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:14 AM EDT     3.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:03 AM EDT     0.93 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:56 PM EDT     4.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:55 PM EDT     1.47 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.433.53.73.63.32.72.11.51.10.91.21.92.93.74.34.54.33.83.22.621.61.5

Tide / Current Tables for Allston Creek, South Carolina
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Allston Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:50 AM EDT     3.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:53 AM EDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:32 PM EDT     4.32 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:45 PM EDT     1.40 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.92.53.13.53.63.432.51.91.410.91.22.13.13.84.34.343.52.92.31.81.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.