Thursday, October17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pawleys Island, SC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 6:41PM Thursday October 17, 2019 1:56 PM EDT (17:56 UTC) Moonrise 8:21PMMoonset 9:44AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ256 Coastal Waters From Murrells Inlet To South Santee River Sc Out 20 Nm- 1155 Am Edt Thu Oct 17 2019
This afternoon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot, then 2 ft after midnight.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of showers through the day, then a chance of showers through the night.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely through the day, then a chance of showers through the night.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
AMZ200 1155 Am Edt Thu Oct 17 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will build in through late Friday. Low pressure will move quickly from the gulf of mexico across the area later Saturday into early Sunday. Another front will move across the region toward the middle part of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pawleys Island, SC
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location: 33.45, -79.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 171723
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
123 pm edt Thu oct 17 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will build in through late Friday. Low pressure
will move quickly from the gulf of mexico across the area later
Saturday into early Sunday. Another front will move across the
region toward the middle part of next week.

Update
Bumped up temperatures a little with upper 60s now forecast for most
areas. Also dropped dewpoints slightly which produces minimum
relative humidity of 30-35 percent. Small craft advisory has
been canceled for the nc coastal waters where winds seas have
dipped below criteria.

Near term through Friday
The next 36 hours will be quiet with plenty of sunshine and dry
weather. A few passing high level clouds will be possible this
morning as the upper trough base associated with the passing cold
front 24 hours ago pushes offshore. Otherwise, high pressure aloft
will build across the carolinas and bring fall-like conditions.

Highs each afternoon will be in the mid to upper 60s, which is
between 5 and 10 degrees below normal for mid october. Lows
overnight tonight will drop into the 40s, which is also slightly
below normal for this time of year.

Short term Friday night through Saturday night
Global models are in fairly good agreement on low pressure
developing in the gulf of mexico and moving up into our area
Saturday and Sunday. The big question is as what type of entity,
tropical, subtropical or baroclinic? It seems likely
subtropical at this point but that will be for NHC to decide in
time. Confidence is growing that we could get a couple inches of
rain and and some wind with the system however. I have
increased pops for the short term period to reflect the increase
in confidence. Not much spread in temperatures with highs in
the 70s and lows in the 60s depending highly on what type of
dewpoints the system brings along with it.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
We have backed off pops for the end of the weekend and into
early next week as the system for Saturday and early Sunday
shows more agreement on moving off quickly. Pops increase once
again approaching midweek as a strong cold front approaches and
moves across. Recent guidance is showing a more moisture
challenged system however. Regarding temperatures, nothing
really stands out with the possible exception of highs in the
80s ahead of the cold front.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Tuesday
Vfr. Clear skies as high pressure continues to build in from west.

Northwesterly winds around 5-15 kts today this afternoon, with gusts
in the high teens in SE nc and along the coast, veer to northerly
overnight into tomorrow around 5 kts.

Extended outlook...VFR conditions expected for the next 48 hours.

Increasing chances for rain, wind, and sub-vfr conditions Saturday
afternoon into Sunday. Chance for early morning fog stratus next
Monday and Tuesday mornings.

Marine
Conditions offshore will improve over the next 36 hours as high
pressure builds over the offshore waters. Nnw winds up to 15
kts today will diminish during the afternoon and heading into
Friday. Minimal swell waves from the sse at 10 seconds, mainly
expecting offshore wind waves between 2 and 3 feet around 5
seconds.

Low pressure will be moving up along or near the coast for the
weekend. Low confidence in the coastal waters forecast as winds
will be determined by the strength and nature of the system and
of course the track. For now we have south to southeast winds of
15-20 knots. A bit of a reprieve after the system moves by with
a significant southwest flow developing ahead of the next front
for midweek. Significant seas with the current forecast may
only eclipse small craft criteria for 12 hours or so late
Saturday into early Sunday but we must emphasize this is a low
confidence forecast and elements will almost certainly change.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Shk
update... Tra
near term... Mck
short term... Shk
long term... Shk
aviation... Vao
marine... Mck shk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 8 mi132 min NW 6 61°F 1013 hPa42°F
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 18 mi57 min 64°F
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 43 mi49 min NW 14 G 18 62°F 74°F1012.2 hPa
41119 43 mi67 min 74°F1 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown County Airport , SC15 mi62 minNNW 10 G 1710.00 miFair64°F39°F40%1013.5 hPa
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC19 mi61 minNW 1010.00 miFair66°F41°F40%1012.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGGE

Wind History from GGE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10
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W3W3W6W4W3NW5NW6CalmCalmNW4NW4CalmCalmNW4N4N3NW8NW7NW7
1 day agoE4E5E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3SE9S7SW9
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2 days agoNW6NW4W3SE5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4NE4E4E5

Tide / Current Tables for Midway Inlet North, Pawleys Island, South Carolina
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Midway Inlet North
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Thu -- 04:54 AM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:32 AM EDT     5.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:27 PM EDT     1.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:45 PM EDT     4.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.93.12.31.40.90.71.12.23.54.65.15.14.843.12.21.51.11.11.82.83.74.24.3

Tide / Current Tables for Allston Creek, South Carolina
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Allston Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:44 AM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:08 AM EDT     4.98 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:17 PM EDT     1.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:21 PM EDT     4.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.13.52.821.20.80.71.32.53.74.654.84.43.62.81.91.311.21.933.84.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.