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FXUS64 KBMX 110003 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 603 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 100 PM CST SUN DEC 10 2023

The longwave trough axis is currently traversing eastward across the Southeast, with deep-layer flow becoming northwesterly here in Central Alabama. The surface cold front has moved through Troy, and is almost through Auburn as of midday with only leftover post-frontal light rain and drizzle stretching from Anniston southward to Montgomery. As drier air filters in from the northwest, clouds will eventually clear from west to east as we go through the afternoon and into the evening hours. Clouds may be a little more stubborn to clear in the east and southeast until later this evening. Temperatures are certainly more complicated today with falling temperatures across the southeast counties as the front moves through, but sunshine in the west and northwest was warming temperatures by a few degrees this afternoon. Gusty northwest winds will continue areawide with a few gusts between 20 and 25mph before diminishing overnight tonight. Temperatures will fall rapidly after sunset tonight once clouds finally clear, with mid to upper 20s likely across the northern half of Central Alabama. We could have just enough time before sunrise for northwest winds to become light enough for the boundary layer to decouple and cool temperatures even lower within the sheltered valley locations. Temperatures elsewhere will fall near the freezing mark.

Continental polar air will settle into the region during the day on Monday before the pressure gradient relaxes due to the surface ridge to our west settling overhead. Despite full sunshine, temperatures will struggle to reach the 50 degree mark across the north and northeastern counties, while highs in the low to mid 50s are expected elsewhere.

56/GDG

Previous short-term discussion: (Today through Monday)
Issued at 245 AM CST SUN DEC 10 2023

It has become fairly active over the past couple of hours. As of 230 AM the line of showers/storms are now well south of the Interstate 20 corridor and will continue to push east through the morning. The strongest activity right now in northeast Alabama.
There is also an increase in activity to our southwest. This may merge as the activity reaches the Interstate 85 corridor. There still is some storm fuels around that the activity can tap into, so this will need to be monitored over the next few hours. With said though the area of best instabilities are generally only in the far southern sections. The line should push east of the area by 8 AM and we should see some clearing during the afternoon and into the evening hours. Dry conditions will be in place on Monday as high pressure moves into the region.

16

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 216 PM CST SUN DEC 10 2023

A dry zonal flow pattern through the upcoming week. A surface high building southward will keep temperatures near and slightly below normal. The next chance of rain will be over the weekend as a southern stream short wave trough develops over the southwest United States and tracks eastward along the Gulf Coast.

58/rose

Previous long-term discussion: (Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CST SUN DEC 10 2023

High pressure will be in control of the Southeast and actually much of the Eastern CONUS through Thursday into Friday. We will be watching the storm system late Friday into Saturday. Much like last the models are different in their solutions. The other interesting thing of not is the 2 main solutions both flipped/flopped the scenarios, so not only is there inconsistencies in the solutions, but also run to run consistency with an individual solution. So with that in mind will continue with the 20 to 30 percent PoP for next weekend and see when and if the models can come into a better agreement.

16

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 PM CST SUN DEC 10 2023

Light rain is quickly exciting to the east tonight, with clearing skies, and conditions will be VFR to start the period at all forecast terminals. Northwest winds remain gusty this evening, with speeds of 7-12kts and gusts up to 22kts. Winds will gradually diminish this evening, with speeds of 5-8kts by sunrise. Winds continue to diminish through the day Monday.

14

FIRE WEATHER

Decreasing clouds this evening with brisk northwest winds of 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. The winds will decrease to around 5-7 mph after midnight. High pressure will build into the region tonight and Monday. Min RHs on Monday and Tuesday 35-40%. Rain free conditions through Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 26 50 25 55 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 28 51 28 58 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 29 50 30 55 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 30 54 30 59 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 29 52 30 58 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 31 52 32 55 / 10 0 0 0 Montgomery 31 53 30 57 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 32 54 31 58 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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