Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 7:45 PM Moonrise 5:15 PM   Moonset 3:51 AM

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FXUS64 KBMX 200535 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1235 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

New SHORT TERM, AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2024

The main storm system has exited the US and is in the Atlantic Ocean. There is a weak meso-low still in the southern fringe of the Appalachians, trapped by the high pressure building to the north, while high pressure also builds into the Southeast. For today, sunny skies will prevail with highs in the 80s. There is a slight chance that some isolated showers may develop on the outer edge of the meso-low. Most models remain dry, but a few have the outside chance. Opted to go with a 10 percent chance versus the 0 percent the model blends were offering up. Anything that does develop would quickly dissipate by sunset. As we move into the evening there could be some clouds that develop with the easterly flow across the east, with more of wedge influence, but should remain rain free. This wedge erodes on Tuesday and we are left with mostly sunny skies by the afternoon. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 80s to a few near 90 degrees in the west.

16

LONG TERM
(Through next Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024

No significant changes to long term forecast. Rain free conditions expected through Wednesday. A mid level zone of deeper moisture and lift will set-up from north Texas to Tennessee by Thursday and into the weekend. Several upper level impulses will track across this area, with better rain chances across north Alabama.
Temperatures this week will be much above normal with highs in the middle to upper 80s to around 90.

58/rose

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2024

VFR conditions expected over the 24 hours with generally light winds from the east. We may see some clouds drop down to MVFR in the eastern TAFs just outside this cycle, so will evaluate that with the 12z set.

FIRE WEATHER

Generally sunny skies for the first of the week. 20 foot winds will become east-southeast at 4-7 mph this afternoon, with Min RH values at 40-50 percent. Max RH overnight will be over 90 percent. 20 foot winds will be southeast at 3-6 mph Tuesday, with Min RH values at 35-45 percent. Next chance for wetting rain on Thursday across the far north, with a better chance on Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 86 59 88 61 / 10 0 0 0 Anniston 86 61 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 87 63 88 66 / 10 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 88 64 88 66 / 10 0 0 0 Calera 86 63 87 65 / 10 0 0 0 Auburn 83 63 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 86 63 87 64 / 10 0 0 0 Troy 85 62 87 63 / 10 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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