Thursday, November21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Avalon, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 4:49PM Thursday November 21, 2019 1:08 PM PST (21:08 UTC) Moonrise 1:56AMMoonset 3:02PM Illumination 28% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 901 Am Pst Thu Nov 21 2019
Today..E winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 5 ft at 11 seconds. Chance of tstms in the morning, then slight chance of showers.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt becoming se 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 11 seconds, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds after midnight. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..E to se winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 9 seconds.
Fri night..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 13 seconds. S swell 2 ft.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 17 seconds.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 16 seconds.
Sun..W to nw winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..W to nw winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft.
PZZ600 901 Am Pst Thu Nov 21 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 16z or 8 am pst, a 1006 mb low was over california and will move inland through Friday. Thunderstorms are possible through at least this morning for areas south of the channel islands.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avalon, CA
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location: 33.51, -118.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 211804 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1004 AM PST Thu Nov 21 2019

Updated Aviation Section

SYNOPSIS. 21/840 AM.

An upper level low pressure trough will continue to bring cool and unsettled conditions as it moves out east today. Offshore winds and a building high pressure will allow for temperatures to increase through the weekend. Then, another storm system could impact the region next week.

SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT). 21/912 AM.

***UPDATE***

While current satellite and radar observations indicate the precipitation has ended with the exception of a shower over the San Gabriel mountains, NAM is still calling for light precipitation in the LA and Ventura mountains early this afternoon. Leaving the winter weather advisory in place for now, but likely not keeping it until the stated 7pm.

***From Previous Discussion***

The latest satellite imagery shows an upper-level trough of low pressure now centered over southern Nevada and slowly exiting the region to the east. Enough moisture and instability exists for a partly to mostly cloudy day across the region with instability showers lingering mainly across eastern Los Angeles County and the mountain areas. A winter weather advisory remains in effect through this evening for the Los Angeles County Mountains. Temperatures will remain on the cool side today, around 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year.

An upstream trough located near 50N and 145W early this morning will dig south and rotate off the coast through the weekend. Weak ridging will develop between the exiting trough and the upstream trough. Offshore flow will develop over the weekend, peaking between Saturday and Sunday. A marginal wind advisory could be needed at some point during the event, but the main effects will warmer temperatures and clearing skies over the weekend. Little if any clouds will linger and temperatures across most coastal and valley locations should warm into the 70s, or several degrees above normal. A few spots could hit the 80 degree mark.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED). 21/331 AM.

Warmer than normal conditions will linger into Monday, then model solutions continue to indicate the possibility of a trough of low pressure affecting the area for mid-to-late next week. Operational GFS and ECMWF ensembles hint at the possibility of the trough being a much colder storm system. PoPs have been nudged higher in the latest forecast issuance. A majority of the ensembles solutions suggest the best chance of rain between Wednesday and Thursday.

The main story may end being the colder air mass moving into the region for the holiday weekend. Both ECMWF and GFS solutions drop 1000-500 mb thickness values to 540 dm over Downtown Los Angeles. 700 mb temperatures approach -13 degrees Celsius and 500 mb temperatures approach -30 degrees Celsius as the trough passes, then almost due northerly flow could pipe colder air into the region from the Pacific Northwest and Canada. In addition to rain and if model projections hold, snow levels could lower to between 2500 and 3500 feet and isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out based upon the latest model projections.

Temperatures may need be addressed in future forecasts for Thanksgiving Day and into the weekend. A majority of the ECMWF ensembles bring freezing to sub-freezing temperatures to the interior portions of the area during the overnight hours, with some members bringing overnight low temperature into the 30s for the coastal valleys. Stay tuned for updates as this trough could impact travel for the holiday weekend.

AVIATION. 21/1759Z.

At 17Z, there was no marine layer or inversion at KLAX.

Moderate confidence in VFR conditions most common today, with SCT025-035 at times anywhere. 20-30 percent chance of BKN025-035 anywhere. No thunderstorm chances. 80 percent chance of LIFR FG at KPRB KWJF KPMD Friday after 10Z, 20 percent chance at KSMX. 60 percent chance of MVFR BKN025 Friday after 08Z at KLAX KLGB KSMO KBUR KVNY, 30 percent chance at KOXR KCMA KSBA. 20 percent chance of -SHRA if those clouds form.

KLAX . Moderate confidence in forecast through 06Z, with VFR conditions except for a 20 percent chance of brief BKN025, and east winds through 19-20Z under 8kt. 60 percent chance of MVFR BKN025 Friday forming by 06-10Z, with a 20 percent chance of -SHRA. High confidence in east winds tonight being stronger than this morning, with a 60 percent chance of reaching 8-10 kt.

KBUR . Moderate confidence in forecast through 06Z, with VFR conditions except for a 30 percent chance of brief BKN025. 60 percent chance of MVFR BKN025 Friday forming by 06-10Z, with a 20 percent chance of -SHRA.

MARINE. 21/911 AM.

Thunderstorms will remain possible through the morning hours southeast of the Channel Islands, especially in the San Pedro Channel, although the activity is on the decrease already. Large seas with 11 to 13 second periods continue this morning, but will continue to subside through tonight. Issued a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the 10+ foot seas over the outer waters from Point Conception to San Nicolas Island, which should finally go below 10 feet later this afternoon. SE winds up to 15 kt will continue through the morning hours almost everywhere. Stronger SE winds are expected on Friday, and could locally approach 25 kt.

Moderate confidence in conditions staying below SCA Friday afternoon through Sunday morning. NW winds will increase Sunday through Monday or Tuesday. High confidence in Gale Force winds by Monday off the Central Coast, and a 30 percent chance for the western Santa Barbara Channel. NW to W swell will build sharply with these winds, with widespread hazardous seas.

BEACHES. 21/318 AM.

Surf conditions remain at High Surf levels early this morning, but the surf is expected to diminish through the day. So, HIGH SURF ADVISORIES will remain in effect until Noon for the Central Coast as well as the Ventura/Los Angeles coasts and a BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT will remain in effect until Noon today for the Santa Barbara County South Coast. Although surf will subside this afternoon, rip current activity will likely remain strong and dangerous through this evening.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . High Surf Advisory in effect until noon PST today for zones 34-35-40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect until noon PST today for zone 39. (See LAXCFWLOX). Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 7 PM PST this evening for zone 54. (See LAXWSWLOX). PZ . Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST this afternoon for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SAT-WED).

Gusty north winds possible in some areas Monday into Tuesday morning. Cold temperatures along with rain and mountain snow is possible Wednesday into Thanksgiving.



PUBLIC . Hall/jld AVIATION . Kittell MARINE . Kittell BEACHES . RAT SYNOPSIS . Delerme

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46222 - San Pedro, CA (092) 19 mi46 min 64°F4 ft
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 24 mi43 min 64°F5 ft
OHBC1 - 9410660 - Los Angeles, CA 24 mi51 min 64°F1013 hPa
46253 25 mi39 min 65°F4 ft
AGXC1 25 mi51 min SE 7 G 8
PFDC1 26 mi51 min ESE 5.1 G 6
46256 27 mi39 min 64°F4 ft
PXAC1 27 mi57 min SE 7 G 8
46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA 28 mi39 min ESE 5.8 G 7.8 61°F 64°F1012.7 hPa57°F
BAXC1 28 mi51 min ESE 7 G 8
PFXC1 28 mi51 min SSE 7 G 8
PSXC1 28 mi51 min SSE 7 G 9.9
PRJC1 29 mi51 min SSE 6 G 7
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 35 mi51 min SSW 7 G 7 62°F 63°F1012.7 hPa

Wind History for Angels Gate, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Avalon Catalina Airport, CA14 mi18 minSW 32.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist54°F50°F87%1012.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAVX

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Last 24hrW16W14N4NE5NE4CalmSW5W7W7W7W6NW3CalmS3W4SW4W4W3SW4NE5NE5CalmCalmSW3
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2 days agoN5W9W11SW8SW8SW10W10N4N4S4W3NW6SE3SW4S4CalmS5W3S3SE7SE5SW9SW94

Tide / Current Tables for Catalina Harbor, California
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Catalina Harbor
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:55 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:34 AM PST     4.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:30 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:38 AM PST     1.66 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:01 PM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:48 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:10 PM PST     4.28 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:35 PM PST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.61.32.33.44.24.74.74.33.72.92.21.71.722.73.444.34.13.62.81.810.4

Tide / Current Tables for Catalina Harbor, Santa Catalina Island, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Santa Ana Mtns, CA
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