Tuesday, March31, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kennedy, AL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 7:15PM Tuesday March 31, 2020 11:38 AM CDT (16:38 UTC) Moonrise 11:19AMMoonset 1:07AM Illumination 51% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kennedy, AL
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Area Discussion for - Birmingham, AL
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FXUS64 KBMX 311437 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 937 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020

UPDATE. MESOSCALE UPDATE.

SHORT TERM. /Updated at 0923 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020/

QLCS currently extends from Randolph County southwestward to Lowndes County to southeast Mississippi. This is associated with a potent low-amplitude shortwave trough and associated speed max moving through. A 1006mb surface low is centered northwest of Montgomery with a warm front extending southeastward to near Eufaula, and a cold front extending southwestward behind the QLCS. A northern line segment moving through our east-central counties is elevated but damaging wind gusts have still been able to reach the surface. Note that there is no tornado threat that far north as it is north of the front, but was included in a tornado watch to avoid having two different watches out. Further south, activity is weaker until you reach a bowing segment/commahead structure approaching southern Lowndes County. This will be the main feature of interest as it moves eastward across our southeast counties. Instability is surging ahead of this feature as the warm front lifts northward, with 6-7F dewpoint increases at Montgomery and Troy in the past hour. This suggests that SBCAPE is likely higher ahead of the line than indicated by SPC mesoanalysis. 45-50kts of 0-3km shear oriented perpendicular to the line and 0-1km SRH of 300-400 m2/s2 will support threats of both damaging winds and embedded tornadoes as the QLCS moves eastward across our southeast counties though midday. Also will need to watch the potential for low confidence semi-discrete supercell ahead of the line as cells are developing west of Dothan.

32/Davis

Previous short-term discussion: /Updated at 0339 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020/

Through Wednesday night.

A strong short-wave trough will progress from the lower MS Valley this morning through the Southeast and then slide off the Atlantic Coast by late evening. Latest guidance suggest that severe weather is still probable across the southern portions of the forecast area. Looking at specific numbers, look for the system to be capable of ~500-1,200 J/kg MLCAPE and 50-60 kts eff. bulk shear. However, the system still remains a touch separated with the best shear and best instability. Through the morning hours, the wind shear near the boundary lifts quickly eastward ahead of more favorable warm sector instability. Despite this notion, many forecast soundings do suggest enough (300 to 400 m2/s2) 0-1 km SRH to foster tornadoes in the event a stronger updraft can establish in proximity to the shear maxima near the front. All things considered, tornadoes, damaging winds, and 1 inch hail all appear likely if ingredients come together at the right time. Highest forecast confidence in severe weather resides in the southeast portions of Central Alabama, this morning into the early afternoon. Nonetheless, the severe forecast remains on track and no major changes were made over previously advertised.

Once the system moves out this afternoon, CAA will blast the region and temperatures will fall into the 40s areawide with even a few upper 30s in the far northern counties. Last time we were in the 40s across the region was back on March 8th, so it will feel as quite shock to the body if you get out and about early Wednesday morning. Temperatures will warm up into the 60s pretty much area-wide with a few near 70 degrees in the far south. With generally clear skies, lows will drop into the 40s again Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

16

LONG TERM. /Updated at 0339 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020/

Thursday through Monday.

On Thursday, a combination of mid-level ridging across the Southeast and mean 1000-500mb RH's ~35 percent will continue to favor stable conditions with afternoon highs in the 70s and periodic sunshine. Upstream of the ridge, a weak 700mb shortwave will propagate across the area on Friday. Negative omegas over Central AL suggest there may be enough lift to produce a few light showers, but a pocket of dry low-level air may prevent much of it from reaching the ground, so I kept PoPs around 15 percent across our west. Meanwhile, an upper-level jet will rotate through the Northern Rockies and produce an elongated area of surface low pressure across the Midwest with a weak trailing cold front extending southward into eastern Texas. A widespread area of high pressure will develop over the northern Plains and force the front towards the Lower Mississippi Valley while the surface low flattens across Ontario and Manitoba. The surface boundary will provide weak support for isolated showers and partly cloudy skies throughout the weekend. However, the overall coverage will be limited by weak forcing due to a lack of upper-level support and a building ridge across the Deep South. Guidance indicates the aforementioned ridge will once again develop over the Gulf of Mexico. Our temperatures will largely be influenced by the aforementioned ridge and associated height rises. Expect to see highs in the upper 70s to near 80F as we start the new week. Towards the end of this period, a shortwave embedded in the ridge will rotate across the area and may provide better chances for additional rainfall given the return of moist southerly flow. Trended PoPs upward, but kept chances around 50% since there are still some timing difference between models.

86

AVIATION. 12Z TAF Discussion.

Conditions will continue to deteriorate this morning. Rain has begun to overspread TCL and will be moving in BHM, EET, ANB, ASN over the next few hours. Looks like the more convective activity will be across the south (MGM and TOI) late morning into the afternoon. Look for VFR through the 13 to 14z, then a lowering to generally MVFR with IFR with the heavier bands of rain. Winds will be gusty at times as well through 00 to 03z from the north.

16

FIRE WEATHER.

Rain will become widespread this morning as a low pressure system moves into the area with some thunderstorms across the south. By midweek, high pressure will produce cooler and drier conditions across Central Alabama with afternoon RH's ranging from 35 to 45 percent and northerly winds around 5 to 10 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Gadsden 61 38 63 40 70 / 100 10 0 0 0 Anniston 64 41 64 41 72 / 100 20 0 0 0 Birmingham 64 42 66 44 72 / 100 10 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 67 43 68 44 74 / 70 0 0 0 0 Calera 67 42 66 43 72 / 100 10 0 0 0 Auburn 72 43 66 43 72 / 100 20 0 0 0 Montgomery 76 45 70 45 75 / 100 10 0 0 0 Troy 79 46 70 44 75 / 100 10 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/. None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Columbus Air Force Base, MS26 mi1.7 hrsNNW 810.00 miOvercast55°F49°F82%1009 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCBM

Wind History from CBM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8NE6N7N7NE6N3CalmNE4NE5CalmCalmNE3N11NE7E6NE4E7N9NE10N10NE11E6NW8Calm
1 day agoW6W8SW6W7W10W8W6NW6CalmCalmNW4NW5W4CalmNW5NE5N6CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE7NE8
2 days agoSW14
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SW8S7S7S4S5S8S10S11S11NW26
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Birmingham, AL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Columbus AFB, MS
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.