Wednesday, April21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kennedy, AL

Version 3.4 		NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 7:30PM Wednesday April 21, 2021 6:24 AM CDT (11:24 UTC) Moonrise 1:33PMMoonset 3:03AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kennedy, AL
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location: 33.51, -88     debug

Area Discussion for - Birmingham, AL
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FXUS64 KBMX 211122 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 622 AM CDT Wed Apr 21 2021

UPDATE. For 12Z Aviation.

SHORT TERM. /Updated at 0321 AM CDT Wed Apr 21 2021/

Today through Thursday.

With abundant sunshine today, temperatures will be held down by strong cold advection as high pressure moves in from the northwest behind a cold front. Most locations will reach the lower to mid 60s, though a few spots may stay in the upper 50s. A cold night is expected with high pressure expected to be in a favorable location for radiational cooling. Many areas across our northern half could experience frost as temperatures drop into the mid 30s in the presence of calm winds. High pressure and dry conditions will prevail on Thursday as a warming trend begins ahead of the next weather system.

87/Grantham

LONG TERM. /Updated at 0321 AM CDT Wed Apr 21 2021/

Thursday night through Saturday Morning.

Moisture return will initiate on Friday as low-level winds become south-southwesterly in response to ridging over the eastern seaboard and an upper-level trough over the Central CONUS. At the surface, low pressure will be centered over the Southern Plains producing thunderstorms across parts of TX and OK. The developing warm advection regime and increasing moisture will support low chances for scattered showers west of I-65 late Friday afternoon, but the widespread activity will remain further west until after midnight. The surface low is forecast to track northeast through the Ozarks on Saturday which will result in a rather wet day across the Southeast as an effective warm front lifts north from the Gulf Coast followed by a cold frontal passage Saturday evening.

Although I would like to see more consistency regarding mesoscale details, this dynamic system does yield concern for severe storms on Saturday, potentially in two rounds. 00Z deterministic guidance indicates a pre-frontal shortwave, embedded downstream of the parent trough, will move across the Lower MS Valley and initiate convection fairly early in the morning centered near a mesolow-like feature which is progged to track just south of the I-20 corridor as the effective warm front lifts northward. This will be accompanied by a stout low-level jet of 60-70kts with shear maximized near the low. During this timeframe, large forecast hodographs indicate a potential for rotating updrafts, but robust instability appears to be located further west and closer to the parent trough. A tornado threat would be conditional but could materialize with this early morning activity if a more favorable surface-based thermodynamic parameter space is achieved with some indications that the activity evolves into a mesoscale cluster of showers and elevated thunderstorms. The pre-frontal shortwave and low-level jet quickly exit the area during the late morning as surface winds rapidly veer with tornado potential becoming less likely thereafter, and potentially a short break in the widespread rainfall.

Saturday Afternoon.

During the afternoon, models are trending towards greater destabilization as the cold front begins to reach the AL/MS state line with preceding dewpoints rising into the mid/upper 60s and steep lapse rates resulting in forecast MUCAPE as high as 2500-3000 J/kg just to south of I-20. This zone is also collocated with eff. bulk shear of 70-80kts. There is some uncertainty on whether or not this solution is rooted in reality since the morning activity should have an affect on stabilizing the lower- levels. Additionally, dry air advection above 700mb and weakening surface convergence along the front could limit deep convection in a spatial-sense as PWATs drop during the afternoon, but could certainly see isolated strong to severe storms after 1 PM capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts if temperatures rebound as much as the models suggest. Progged 500mb temps and CAPE values would suggest hail growth of 1 to 2 inches in diameter, but will hold off on highlighting anything larger than quarter sized until we get within range of the CAMs and achieve a better understanding of the mesoscale details. Otherwise, will also need to monitor for localized flooding as heavy rainfall with QPF amounts of 2 to 3 inches across most of the area could exceed flash flood guidance in some locations, especially along and north of the warm front near the I-20 corridor. Saturday Night through Tuesday.

The upper trough and associated cold front will move east of the area shortly before midnight, and winds will become northwesterly as ridging and dry air begin to establish across the Southeast. The accompanying airmass will be advected from the Southern Plains, so temperatures Sunday afternoon won't be much cooler than Saturday with mid to upper 70s and decreasing clouds. Low-level winds become south-southwesterly again by Tuesday as the ridge shifts towards the Mid-Atlantic states. Temperatures at the start of the work week will be several degrees above average with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. 86

AVIATION. 12Z TAF Discussion.

For the most part VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. A strong cold front is now moving through and winds will increase behind the front. There could briefly be some MVFR at the northern sites so included through 15z as a tempo. Look for northwest winds of 10 - 17 knots with gusts up to 22 - 27 knots through the afternoon and early evening. Winds calm to less than 7 kts after 2z

16

FIRE WEATHER.

Rain free conditions through Friday. A cold front is currently passing through the area and surface winds will become northwest 9-13 mph behind the front. Much cooler and drier today and Thursday with patchy frost possible in the north Thursday morning. RH values this afternoon will fall as low as 30 percent and 25-30 percent Thursday afternoon. Winds will become southeasterly around 5 to 10 mph on Friday with moisture gradually increasing ahead of the next weather system which will arrive on Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Gadsden 58 33 66 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 10 Anniston 60 35 66 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 10 Birmingham 60 37 67 45 70 / 0 0 0 10 10 Tuscaloosa 62 37 68 46 70 / 0 0 0 10 20 Calera 61 38 66 46 70 / 0 0 0 10 10 Auburn 63 39 66 46 70 / 0 0 0 0 10 Montgomery 66 39 70 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 10 Troy 67 39 71 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Thursday for the following counties: Blount . Calhoun . Cherokee . Clay . Cleburne . Etowah . Fayette . Jefferson . Lamar . Marion . Pickens . Randolph . Shelby . St Clair. Talladega . Tuscaloosa . Walker . Winston.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Columbus Air Force Base, MS26 mi29 minNNW 1310.00 miOvercast42°F32°F68%1021.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCBM

Wind History from CBM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6CalmCalmW8W5CalmCalmCalmCalmNW13
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN3N4CalmCalmW4N6NW3NW8NW5CalmW4NW6CalmNW9CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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