Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 7:41 PM Moonrise 4:20 AM   Moonset 5:08 PM

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FXUS64 KBMX 050837 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 337 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 5 2024

Skies are currently mostly clear across Central Alabama with no echoes on radar. An upper level southern stream impulse over TX/OK will track eastward today. Not expecting any rain across Central Alabama this morning, but scattered storms will likely develop over west Alabama by mid afternoon. Modest surface based CAPE around 1500 J/kg expected across west Alabama this afternoon, with 0-6km bulk shear values less than 30 kts, so storms likely stay below severe limits. Model consensus is for the convective activity to push northeast along and north of the I-20 corridor overnight, but there are significant differences in areal coverage of storms. Will continue likely rain chances along and north of I-20 overnight, but as with previous systems, the coverage seems to wane once it hits the Alabama state line. This system will move out of north Alabama before sunrise Monday. Mid level subsidence on Monday will keep a lid of diurnal convection, and kept rain chances on the low end.
Above normal temperatures the next few days with highs in the middle to upper 80s and lows in the 60s.

58/rose

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 5 2024

An unsettled weather pattern will be in place during the coming week. Shower and thunderstorm chances will run each day through early Friday morning, as a late season cold front sweeps through Central Alabama. Convection across the northwestern counties Tuesday and Wednesday may be strong and will need to be monitored for any isolated severe potential in the form of damaging wind and hail.

Meanwhile, strong southerly surface flow will bring some of the warmest days so far this year. Winds may gust as high as 15-20 mph at times Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. High temperatures will soar into the upper 80s, perhaps even lows 90s across the southern counties, Tuesday through Thursday.

We are beginning to monitor the Thursday evening timeframe for the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms associated with an MCS- like setup moving west to east across the area. This, in advance of the aforementioned cold front, may pose a damaging wind and hail threat, owing to fairly steep lapse rates around 7.5 C/km and bulk shear values of 50-55 kts. However, the better forcing will be removed to the north of Alabama, so will need to further evaluate the potential over the next few forecast cycles.

12

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT SUN MAY 5 2024

Outside convective activity, VFR conds will prevail. Patchy fog thru 13Z may reduce vsbys to 3-5 miles. Tstms will increase over west Alabama between 21Z and 00Z, spreading eastward along and north of the I-20 corridor during the evening hours, possibly impacting all northern TAF sites.

58/rose

FIRE WEATHER

Scattered showers and storms are possible today, Monday, and Tuesday. Rain amounts could be locally heavy where thunderstorms track, on the order of around one inch. With increasing moisture, minimum RH values will be above 40-45 percent each afternoon. 20- foot winds should average less than 10 mph from the south to southwest, though gusts to around 20 mph will be possible at times.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 87 65 85 65 / 20 60 30 30 Anniston 87 66 85 66 / 20 50 20 20 Birmingham 87 68 85 68 / 30 60 20 20 Tuscaloosa 87 68 86 68 / 50 60 20 20 Calera 86 67 84 67 / 30 60 20 20 Auburn 85 68 84 67 / 20 20 20 20 Montgomery 88 68 88 67 / 20 40 20 10 Troy 88 66 88 67 / 20 20 20 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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