Saturday, July20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Surfside Beach, SC

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 8:25PM Saturday July 20, 2019 6:54 PM EDT (22:54 UTC) Moonrise 9:59PMMoonset 8:34AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 315 Pm Edt Sat Jul 20 2019
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Isolated showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Isolated showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Wed..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely through the day, then a chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Thu..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 315 Pm Edt Sat Jul 20 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. SW winds will continue through the weekend as bermuda high pressure remains anchored offshore. Winds will become gusty near shore in the afternoon heating. A cold front is expected to reach the area late Tuesday, then linger off the coast. This will bring an increase in tstms late Tuesday through early Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Surfside Beach, SC
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location: 33.58, -78.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 202132
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
327 pm edt Sat jul 20 2019

Synopsis
Dangerous daytime heat will be the main story this weekend into
early next week. An approaching cold front will bring unsettled
weather on Tuesday and potentially into Wednesday. Cooler temps
are also forecast for mid to late next week as high pressure
rebuilds from the north.

Near term through Sunday night
As of 3 pm Saturday... Apparent temperatures not entirely on
track to fully realize current heat warnings advisories for
today. Max-t values up to 1-3 degrees hotter Sunday, but based
on present trends, will exclude coastal zones in heat products
and address projected heat indices Sunday with an 'advisory'
area-wide for NE sc and SE nc away from beach zones. This will
need reassessment overnight, and how strong the downslope winds
are expected, excessive heat warnings not out of the question.

H2o vapor channels show the extent of dry air about the region
currently and convection nil to isolated this period, even
vigorous sprouts along the gulf stream west-wall, have succumb
to the shearing, arid flow aloft. Still, with intense surface
heating and deeper moisture concentrated around 850 Sunday, have
isolated tstms in our forecast for Sunday afternoon, quieting
with heat loss late.

Short term Monday through Monday night
As of 320 pm Saturday... Monday will start off in status-quo
fashion from the weekend as vertically stacked high pressure
continues to reside just offshore. This again should limit
afternoon evening convective potential but think there be
slightly more activity than Sat Sun as the ridge begins to push
further offshore in advance of deep layered troughing. Will
maintain 15-30% pops during peak heating through the nighttime
hours as a result. Otherwise, still heat concerns with highs in
the upper 90s inland low to mid 90s near coast. This along with
dewpoints well into the 70s esp. For the eastern half of our cwa
will likely lead to additional advisory for Monday. Mon night
lows also well above normal in the mid to upper 70s within
prefrontal SW flow regime.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
As of 320 pm Saturday... Tuesday currently looks to be the most
unsettled day of the forecast as a slow moving front moves into
the area associated with a large scale h5 trough moving over the
entire east coast. Some severe threat appears to be present
with cape's creeping above 2000 j kg in places, a bit more
shear, and aforementioned forcing. Widespread flooding not
anticipated but 1-2 inches or so possible within heavier
thunderstorms that develop. Front will push just offshore into
wed. This should allow bulk of the precip to also move offshore,
but as post frontal nly flow collides with sea breeze still
forecasting high pops esp. Near the coast. Will generally see
lower rain chances inland but given inherent uncertainty with
late july fronts, am far from ruling out activity for our
western counties and have accounted for that in the forecast.

The other big news through midweek will be considerably cooler
temps, with low to mid 80s for Wednesday which is well below
climo.

We continue to forecast slightly below temps through the second part
of next week as mid upr troughing persists over the eastern u.S. And
surface high pressure to our N ne. Pops will also trend down, but
not completely go away, and generally highest for our far sw
counties which will be closest to the old front. That said, there is
potential for fairly pleasant late july weather later next week
behind the front esp. Over our nc counties.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
As of 00z...VFR continues as high pressure over the area persists.

No fog is forecast tonight, as winds at the boundary layer are
around 20 kts. Only a slightly better chance for convection on
Sunday. The storms will be isolated and along the resultant. Gusty
southwest winds by mid to late morning.

Extended outlook...VFR outside isolated tstms and very patchy fog
early. Convection to increase to likely category late Tuesday, with
a frontal boundary lingering through mid week maintaining elevated
rain chances.

Marine
As of 3 pm Saturday... Summer wave spectrum and winds nearly
typical for the season, and gusty through peak diurnal heating.

Wind-waves ssw-sw around 2 feet every 5 seconds, and SE waves of
more distant origin, 1-2 feet every 9 seconds. This regime to
continue through the weekend, with minimal to nil TSTM activity.

Mariners and beachgoers can expect ssw wind gusts to 25 mph
inshore during the afternoon hours. With gusts confined in both
area and time, no advisory planned at this time.

Main concerns in the marine forecast for next week are SW winds seas
surging to just below small craft criteria (25kt 6ft) on Mon pm
ahead of approaching front, and then showers and thunderstorms
developing later Tue through Wed as front moves into the area. The
other challenge in the extended is strength of post-frontal N ne
flow for Wed thu. Not going quite as high as the GFS ww3 solutions
at this time which show an area of 20kt NE winds and associated 5ft
wind waves, which would be a bit anomalous for this time of
year. We will continue to watch and update as needed, and
regardless, surf zone hazards will likely gradually shift from
the south facing to the east facing beaches through early to mid
next week with the wind shift. Marine conditions should improve
later next week and into next weekend as high pressure settles
over area.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for scz017-023-024-
032-033-039-054>056-058-059.

Heat advisory from noon to 8 pm edt Sunday for scz017-023-024-
032-033-039-055-058-059.

Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for scz054-
056.

Nc... Heat advisory from noon to 8 pm edt Sunday for ncz087-096-099-
105-107-109.

Excessive heat warning until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz087-
096-099-105>110.

Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz106-
108.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mas mcw
near term... Mjc
short term... Mcw
long term... Mcw
aviation... 43
marine... Mjc mcw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 6 mi55 min 83°F
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 23 mi70 min SW 8.9 91°F 1015 hPa76°F
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 28 mi47 min SW 16 G 23 82°F 83°F1015.9 hPa
41119 28 mi35 min 83°F4 ft
41108 47 mi25 min 83°F4 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC8 mi59 minS 1210.00 miA Few Clouds87°F77°F72%1015.7 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC18 mi62 minSSW 1510.00 miFair87°F77°F72%1015.6 hPa
Conway Horry County Airport, SC21 mi80 minW 45.00 miFair with Haze91°F69°F49%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from MYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS12S13
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SW10SW9W11W83SW5W4CalmSW4CalmSW3SW9SW7W11SW105S12S15
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Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier), South Carolina
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Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier)
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Sat -- 04:30 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:28 AM EDT     4.58 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:27 PM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:52 PM EDT     5.18 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.53.42.110.30.30.923.144.54.543.121.10.60.61.22.23.34.355.2

Tide / Current Tables for Springmaid Pier, Atlantic Ocean, South Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.