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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 624 Pm Est Thu Nov 30 2023
Tonight..E winds 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 1 ft.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of tstms after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then showers in the afternoon.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 kt, becoming w. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 624 Pm Est Thu Nov 30 2023
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Tonight, a coastal trough will form over the coastal waters and move inland as a warm front on Friday. Unsettled weather this weekend will improve into early next week behind a fast moving cold front moving through the area on Sunday.

FXUS62 KILM 302313 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 613 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
Milder temperatures will return as high pressure moves farther off shore into the weekend. Rain chances will increase ahead of slow approaching cold front through the weekend. The cold front will move through Sunday night into Monday with dry and cool air spreading over the Southeast. Another quick moving system and cold front may move through Tuesday night into Wednesday with cold and dry high pressure to follow.

UPDATE
Previous forecast remains on track. 0z aviation discussion included below.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure will gradually shift offshore tonight. Weak return flow will continue this evening and overnight, bringing an increase in surface dew points. Milder lows tonight with upper 30s and low 40s likely. Patchy morning fog can't be completely ruled out near swamps, shielded low areas, and water bodies. Cirrus and increasing low level winds should keep most areas clear.

Cloudy on Friday and much warmer behind a morning warm front.
As moisture builds throughout the column, isolated showers may develop by early afternoon. Any showers are likely to be light and brief. A shallow layer of cold air will impede the inland progress of the warm front, creating a gradient in high temperatures across the area with mid 60s along the I-95 corridor and lower 70s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A mild and wet weekend expected in deep SW return flow around high pressure to the east and approaching cold front to the west. Temps will run well above normal with highs near 70 and possibly into the mid 70s by Sunday. Overnight lows could be as high as 20 degrees above normal in a very moist and cloudy airmass.

Initially there may not be too much in the way of pcp on Fri as warm front lift north as low pressure tracks up toward the Great Lake. The best lift and chc of pcp overnight will begin to run up from the southern Mississippi toward the southern Appalachians associated with trailing cold front and better upper level support. In saying that, there may be enough elevated instability and moisture to produce sct shwrs Fri night. Dewpoints will reach up into the 60s and low level winds will reach up to 45 yo 50 kts. Therefore may see some gusty winds in shwrs and possibly a stronger thunderstorm.

The front will be slow to move eastward as it remains aligned with flow aloft but another shortwave and sfc low rounding the base of the mid to upper trough will nudge system eastward and should see better chc of shwrs into Sat aftn. Overall, it will remain unsettled with clouds and intermittent shwrs through much of the weekend but best chc late Sat into Sat night with pcp water values reaching up near 2 inches over SC by late Sat, tapping into both Atlantic and Gulf moisture. Most areas will receive between a half to one inch of rainfall over the weekend with potentially for moderate to heavy rain showers.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Warm and unsettled weather will continue through Sun. The axis of greatest moisture will shift off the coast as cold front makes its way eastward into the Carolinas on Sun. Tight gradient will exist east and west of front with pcp water values remaining up around 1.5 inches as warm and moist S-SW flow continues through the day on Sun with drier air making its way toward the Central Carolinas by late Sun aftn. This will maintain clouds and chc of shwrs through the day on Sunday but minimal QPF. Temps will reach into the mid 70s.

By Sun night, mid to upper trough will push front eastward with much drier air makes its way into the area. GFS shows pcp water values down less than a half inch by Mon morning. Therefore, did go with a drier forecast for Mon as high pressure builds in but until mid to upper trough and associated shortwave moves offshore, there will be a chc of some clouds or passing shwr, but looks like that will remain well north of local area. Temps will be down near 50 inland by Mon morning with 60s along the coast. Skies will clear on Mon with temps cooling, reaching low to mid 60s for highs.

Looking ahead, dry and cool high pressure will build in through Tues with cooler temps down in the 30s most places inland for lows into early Tue morning and highs possibly not making it to 60 inland Tue aftn. Another system should move rapidly through Tues night into Wed with limited pcp potential but another shot of cold air will follow behind it. Temps will probably be in the mid 50s for highs on Thurs under sunny skies.

AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Predominantly VFR. Primary forecast concern is chance for fog late tonight into tomorrow morning, especially at CRE and ILM given their close proximity to water. Expecting current cirrus cloud deck to thin out heading into overnight hours, with winds remaining relatively light due to influence of high pressure.
MVFR vsbys at ILM and IFR vsbys at CRE have been included in the TAFs around pre-dawn hours, though confidence isn't high. Would not be surprised at brief patchy fog at other sites either. Any visibility restrictions will improve quickly with sunrise, with increase high clouds to start Friday. As coastal trough moves inland as a warm front during the day, lower clouds around 4-5 kft will develop by the afternoon. There is a chance for brief MVFR ceilings around 2500-3000ft around 18z, especially FLO, but not enough confidence for TAF inclusion at this time. Isolated showers expected Friday afternoon with the front along with southerly winds around 10 kts.

Extended Outlook...VFR continues into Friday, when scattered showers could lead to brief/minor flight restrictions. Periods of low clouds and showers may bring additional restrictions at times through the weekend and into Monday.

MARINE
Through Friday... Light and variable winds overnight will become southeasterly on Friday as high pressure slides offshore and a warm front lifts north of the area. Winds on Friday afternoon will increase up to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas around 1-2 feet on Friday morning will build to 2-4 feet by Friday evening.

Friday night through Tuesday...A persistent southerly flow will continue through the weekend with sfc winds S becoming more SW up to 10 to 15 kts. This will push seas up from a meager 1 ft Thurs night up to 3 to 4 ft Fri night into most of the weekend as a cold front makes slow progress eastward into and through the Carolinas. Winds will increase up to 15 to 20 kts out of the west as front moves through Sun night into Mon. The offshore flow will keep greatest seas offshore with most waters in the 3 to 5 ft range on Mon and closer to 2 ft near shore. Winds will veer further Mon into Tues becoming more NW up to 15 to 20 kts as high pressure builds in. Another system will rapidly approach by late Tues and this should back winds around to the W and most likely SW by Tues even. This should push seas back up possibly into SCA thresholds by Wed morning.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier)
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Thu -- 02:47 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:11 AM EST     5.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:16 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:40 PM EST     0.49 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:38 PM EST     4.53 feet High Tide
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