Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Socastee, SC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 8:01PM Saturday August 17, 2019 8:38 AM EDT (12:38 UTC) Moonrise 8:32PMMoonset 7:23AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 641 Am Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday morning...
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 641 Am Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A stationary front will linger just inland from the coast through the weekend, before finally dissipating as high pressure remains offshore early to mid next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Socastee, SC
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location: 33.69, -79.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 171051
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
651 am edt Sat aug 17 2019

Synopsis
Unsettled weather will last into the weekend as a stalled front
weakens along the coast. A slight drying trend on Monday will
give way to an active weather pattern with scattered showers and
thunderstorms each day next week while temperatures remain near
normal.

Update
Forecast updated to raise a small craft advisory for today
through tonight. See marine section for additional info.

Near term through Sunday
Latest sfc analysis shows a stalled frontal boundary just west
of the fa and a very disorganized sfc pressure pattern. Not much
change in the pattern today from yesterday... With transient
shortwave energy aloft in conjunction with high low mid-level
moisture profiles leading to periods of moderate to heavy rain.

Best chance again is near the coast as shortwaves pass along
and just off the coast. Maintained mention of localized minor
flooding and ponding of water in the hazardous weather outlook.

Thunderstorms also likely but severe weather is not expected.

Looks to be a gradient in high temps today... Highs only in the
low mid 80s east due to more precip and cloud cover, up to the
upr 80s far western areas. The rain shifts offshore tonight,
with chances for patchy fog increasing inland. Low temps in the
low mid 70s.

Best moisture axis shifts offshore into Sunday, but with the
weak frontal boundary still in the vicinity have chance pops
(30-50%) through the day. QPF amounts will be lower than those
of today. High temps in the upr 80s to lwr 90s most areas.

Short term Sunday night through Monday night
Deeper moisture seemingly has to give way to dry air as seen on
water vapor imagery this morning to both the east and west.

Guidance appears to show this although not to the extent
currently. This will keep pops a bit lower Sunday night but
daytime heating and the mixing warrants good chance pops Monday.

Temperatures will be very similar to past days with highs in
the upper 80s and lower to middle 90s with lows well into the
70s. The highs will be highly dependent on the extend of the
moisture.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Deep moisture remains in place for the most part with intervals
of drier air perhaps. There will seemingly be periods of lower
pops but extended panels differ on timing. Long story short some
semblance of pops are in the entire forecast. More amplitude
toward the end of the period along with an approaching front
increase the forcing with the moisture. Really no change in the
temperature forecast.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 12z... Another day with morning convection along the coast.

Brief low visibilities in the heavy rain with cloud to ground
lightning. Ceilings will be predominatelyVFR, with intermittent
MVFR. The hrrr model shows convection spreading inland by early
afternoon. Still a chance for nocturnal convection this evening and
through the overnight hours.

Extended... An active summer period with increased moisture and the
threat for MVFR ifr conditions from afternoon and evening
thunderstorms each day. Morning low stratus and fog will produce
MVFR ifr conditions this weekend into next week.

Marine
A stationary frontal boundary remains inland today with SW flow
over the waters. Expect mainly 10-20 kt sustained winds, with
gusts up to 25 kt. With guidance trending up both in terms of
winds and seas, have gone ahead and hoisted a small craft
advisory through tonight. Winds diminish a bit to only 10-15 kt
Sunday. Seas 3-5 ft this weekend, with a few 6 footers out 20
nm possible. Expect a wave direction out of the south, 6-7
second period.

Summer or late summertime pattern remains unchecked through
the work week. This means southeast to southwest winds of 10-15
knots for the most part. An approaching front late in the
period may increase speeds and has the outside chance of leasing
to a synoptic wind shift but guidance remains mixed. Significant
seas will be the standard 2-4 feet.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Sunday for amz250-252-254-
256.

Synopsis... Shk
update... Mas
near term... Mas
short term... Shk
long term... Shk
aviation... Mas 21
marine... Mas shk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 6 mi68 min 80°F
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 25 mi113 min WSW 1.9 79°F 1015 hPa78°F
41119 30 mi138 min 85°F4 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC4 mi42 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F77°F90%1015.6 hPa
Conway Horry County Airport, SC11 mi63 minN 07.00 miLight Rain77°F75°F94%1015.6 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC17 mi45 minSW 44.00 miRain Fog/Mist77°F73°F90%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMYR

Wind History from MYR (wind in knots)
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S7S94NW3CalmS7SW7SW4S5S3S3CalmCalmSW3S5
2 days ago35W4S10S10S13S14S164CalmS3S8SW4W6NW7CalmCalmCalmSE7S6SW3SW5S5SW4

Tide / Current Tables for Socastee Bridge, ICWW, South Carolina
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Socastee Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:10 AM EDT     2.24 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:42 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:20 PM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:46 PM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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22.22.221.71.30.90.50.30.30.61.21.721.91.81.51.20.80.50.30.30.61.2

Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach, South Carolina
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Myrtle Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:28 AM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:23 AM EDT     5.12 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:33 PM EDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:46 PM EDT     5.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.72.41.20.60.61.32.43.64.65.154.43.52.41.40.80.81.42.53.74.85.55.75.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.