Saturday, September26, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Socastee, SC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 7:08PM Saturday September 26, 2020 7:51 PM EDT (23:51 UTC) Moonrise 3:38PMMoonset 12:58AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 306 Pm Edt Sat Sep 26 2020
Through 7 pm..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to 5 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..N winds 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely in the morning. A chance of showers.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
AMZ200 306 Pm Edt Sat Sep 26 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A weak pressure pattern will prevail this weekend with light wind. A strong cold front crosses the area by Tuesday night or Wednesday, with high pressure returning then for the remainder of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Socastee, SC
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location: 33.69, -79.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 262349 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 749 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2020

SYNOPSIS. Weak high pressure will settle into the area this weekend, bringing warmer and mostly dry weather. Showers and a few storms will be back in the forecast Sunday night to midweek, as as an upper level disturbance moves through followed by a strong cold front that is due on Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Forecast has trended a bit drier for this aftn/evening based on latest radar trends and hiRES guidance, so removed any mention of rain from the forecast. Just not much of a trigger and a lot of dry air above 850mb. Such is the case for tonight as well, and with a weak pressure gradient in place and light winds, expect another night with areas of fog across the area. Continued dry into Sun with light SW flow developing in the aftn and temps reaching the low/mid 80s. Included a slight chance of rain then for Sun night as deep- layer moisture increases, however did not go higher due to a lack of forcing despite some weak shortwave energy moving through the area. Any precip should be light.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Front-running shortwave will be exiting to our northeast on Monday taking with it the main forcing for ascent. Just enough weak low level isentropic lift remains ahead of an approaching cold front however to keep a dry forecast. The very low end chance/30-ish POPs inherited have been raised just a bit (will show slightly higher SW than NE in deference to WRF and GFS both showing the WAA precip coming in from the SW). Daytime highs will be just a few degrees above climo but the cloud cover in the WAA regime will keep lows elevated some 10 degrees above climatology.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Very deep trough digging into the lower MS valley on Tuesday. Locally we stay in the fairly benign looking WAA regime with showers and isolated thunderstorms (depending on extent of insolation) becoming more widespread. The ability for the atmosphere to destabilize will become much more relevant Tuesday night into Wednesday as strong dynamics aloft lead to significant mass response in the low levels. Should this largely be Tuesday night then a brief heavy rain squall line with possible embedded bows and spin-ups possible. However should we gravitate towards a slower progression (which is common when the the trough digs so strongly) then more substantial severe weather will be possible on Wednesday. The mid level trough starts to reload Thursday into Friday keeping is in neutral to weakly warm advection locally. The cold front appears to come through on Saturday-probably with little 'weather' due to a lack of prefrontal moisture flux. It's tough to say so far in advance the configuration of the mid level trough driving the cold air and how strong the local CAA winds up. At this time it appears a bit tempered whereas possibilities still include some older runs that show a long fetch discharge of northern Canadian cold air.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Overcast cloud cover remains over northeast SC, and SC terminals will likely encounter IFR ceilings and visibilities overnight into the early morning hours where heavy rain fell 24-36 hours ago. NC terminals will see predominantly MVFR with some patchy IFR ceilings and visibilities through the morning hours before the dissipation by mid morning for all terminals. Isolated pop up showers possible in the vicinity of area airports Sunday afternoon . confidence too low to mention in TAF at this time.

Extended Outlook . Patchy fog possible each overnight and dissipating by morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected going into early next week.

MARINE. Through Sunday Night: No headlines necessary with this forecast package. A weak pressure gradient continues over the area with a weak frontal boundary stationed well offshore. Just 5-10 kt wind through the period, with a typical onshore direction in the aftn/eve and offshore during the morning hours. Seas of 2-4 ft this aftn/evening slightly drop to 2-3 ft late tonight through Sun night, mainly driven by SE 6-7 second waves.

Monday through Thursday . Light winds and no longer period swell on Monday leaving only a minor wind chop on area waters. Southerly gradient tightens up on Tuesday with the approach of a cold front but not to where headlines appear warranted. That may change Tuesday into Wednesday as the upper system approaches though there is some uncertainty regarding the speed at which this occurs and similarly to the associated cold frontal passage. The latter should be some time either Tuesday night or Wednesday and models may trend towards the latter. FROPA will lead to a veer to a more westerly flow and likely no big surge of cold air/high pressure that can sometimes start always leading to advisories in the transitional seasons. Energy once again entering the upper trough on Thursday appears to be the main reason for a more benign frontal passage.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . ILM NEAR TERM . MAS SHORT TERM . mbB LONG TERM . mbB AVIATION . MCK MARINE . ILM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 6 mi52 min 73°F
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 25 mi67 min NW 2.9 75°F 1014 hPa71°F
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 30 mi44 min NW 12 G 16 74°F 78°F1014.2 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Myrtle Beach International Airport, SC4 mi56 minWNW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F71°F91%1014.8 hPa
Conway Horry County Airport, SC11 mi57 minN 010.00 miOvercast72°F68°F88%1015.2 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC17 mi59 minW 710.00 miFair77°F70°F79%1014.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMYR

Wind History from MYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6E6SE8E5CalmNW16CalmCalmNW4CalmN3N4N7N4N8N8N9N6N6NW6W9W9W10NW8
1 day agoSE5SE5SE5E5SE6S9S10SE8SE6E5S9S10S9S7S7S6SE7SE8S4W5S9S12SE5SE11
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4N3N3NW4NW3N4NW4N3SE6SE6SE7SE8SE7SE6SE6SE5

Tide / Current Tables for Socastee Bridge, ICWW, South Carolina
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Socastee Bridge
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Sat -- 01:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:10 AM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:52 AM EDT     1.92 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:19 PM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:34 PM EDT     2.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.310.80.70.81.11.51.81.91.81.71.41.20.90.70.50.611.51.92.32.32.21.9

Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach, South Carolina
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Myrtle Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:58 AM EDT     4.67 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:11 AM EDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:37 PM EDT     5.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:04 PM EDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.82.73.74.44.74.43.72.81.91.20.911.62.73.955.75.85.34.33.121.20.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.