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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 820 Pm Pst Sat Dec 9 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday morning...
Tonight..From point mugu to santa Monica, ne winds 20 to 30 kt. Elsewhere, ne winds 10 to 15 kt with local gusts to 20 kt. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft dominant period 12 seconds.
Sun..From point mugu to santa Monica, ne winds 15 to 25 kt becoming nw to N 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Elsewhere, ne winds 10 to 15 kt becoming nw in the afternoon. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft dominant period 11 seconds, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft dominant period 11 seconds in the afternoon.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 9 seconds.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Mon night..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming e. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 8 seconds.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.

PZZ600 820 Pm Pst Sat Dec 9 2023
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park...at 03z or 7 pm pst, a 1036 mb high was over utah and a weak trough was over the southern california bight.

FXUS66 KLOX 100452 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 852 PM PST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS
09/225 PM.

Moderate to locally strong Santa Ana winds will continue across portions of Ventura County and northwestern Los Angeles County through tonight and into Sunday morning. Damaging wind gusts are expected to continue in the most wind-prone locations of the Santa Susana Mountains. Winds will diminish Sunday afternoon into early parts of the upcoming week. Dry conditions and partly to mostly clear skies are expected for the remainder of this weekend and into the upcoming week. Offshore flow will result in above- normal high temperatures each day in many areas, though a hard freeze is likely across the Antelope Valley tonight. Moderate Santa Ana winds may return for midweek.

.SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)...09/851 PM.

Moderate to strong Santa Ana winds peaked earlier today, but winds continue to be quite gusty this evening. As of 8 pm, still seeing a number of observation stations reporting wind gusts between 30 and 50 mph, and some wind favored foothill/mountain locations between 50 and 70 mph. The current LAX-DAG pressure gradient is at -7.5 mb, with little change expected through early Sunday morning. The focus of the strongest winds tonight into Sunday morning will remain over the Santa Susana Mountains, where high resolution model guidance suggests high probabilities (at least 80 percent) for areas of 60-65 mph wind gusts to persist, resulting in the High Wind Warning until noon Sunday. Wind advisories remain in effect for the remaining wind prone areas of LA/Ventura counties where wind gusts of 35 to 55 mph will be common, however isolated gusts up to 60 mph will be likely in most favored mountain/foothill locations. The moderate to strong Santa Ana winds and low humidities will continue to bring critical Red Flag fire weather conditions to much of LA/Ventura counties through 3 pm Sunday. As of 8 pm this evening, the South Fire in Ventura County has burned over 2400 acres today, illustrating the rapid fire spread.

*** From previous discussion ***

For Sunday afternoon into Monday and Tuesday, offshore pressure gradients will decrease further, ending the strong-wind event.
However, generally light offshore flow will persist. Warming from the downslope flow will support above-normal high temperatures each day in many areas, especially on Sunday when a midlevel ridge moves over the area. Sunday high temperatures are forecast to reach the mid and upper 70s across many locations in lower elevations. However, temperatures will cool a few degrees into Monday and Tuesday in response to falling midlevel heights resulting from a midlevel shortwave trough dropping south- southeastward over the Intermountain West and weakening offshore gradients.

Regarding low temperatures through the period, cold overnight lows in the 20s and 30s are expected in many locations across the interior sections, owing to efficient radiational cooling amid the dry air mass. The coldest of these temperatures are expected across the Antelope Valley tonight -- when clear skies will further enhance radiational cooling, and temperatures as low as 19 to 23 degrees are expected in wind-sheltered locations warranting a Hard Freeze Warning. Thereafter, high clouds moving over the region should limit the degree of overnight cooling to some extent.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...09/225 PM.

Offshore pressure gradients are expected to become reinforced for Wednesday and Thursday in response to surface ridging behind the previously mentioned upper trough. The trough is expected to close off as an upper low over Arizona on Wednesday. While differences exist among models regarding the depth and position of the upper low, there is consensus for offshore pressure gradients to support the potential for moderate Santa Ana winds to return Wednesday into Thursday -- especially with some upper support over the region along the western flank of the upper low.
Present indications are that winds could reach advisory levels over portions of the Los Angeles and Ventura County mountains (20 percent chance). The downslope flow will keep high temperatures above-normal in many areas for Wednesday and Thursday, while dry conditions continue west of the upper low. By the end of next week, multi-model consensus indicates upper ridging over the region allowing even warmer high temperatures to occur.

Looking further ahead to next weekend, there exists rather substantial model-to-model variability, and also substantial run- to-run variability of individual models. This casts significant uncertainty on sensible weather conditions starting next weekend.
However, there are at least some model solutions that indicate the onset of upper troughing over the east Pacific waters off the California coast, corresponding to unsettled weather including possible precipitation.

AVIATION
10/0201Z.

At 0130Z, there was no marine inversion or marine layer at KLAX.

Moderate to high confidence in 00Z TAF package. High confidence in CAVU conditions for all sites through the period. High confidence in northeasterly winds, mainly across Ventura and LA counties, but moderate confidence in speeds and timing of wind changes. Light to moderate turbulence and LLWS will be possible just about anywhere, particularly across the mountains and foothills through tonight.

KLAX...High confidence in 00Z TAF as CAVU conditions are expected through the TAF period. There is a 50% chance of easterly winds near 6 knots 12Z-18Z Sun.

KBUR...Moderate to high confidence in 00Z TAF. High confidence in CAVU conditions through the period.

MARINE
09/1025 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate confidence in current forecast.
Across PZZ670/673, winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through Sunday. For PZZ676, there is a 80% chance of SCA level northeast winds today and a 30-40% chance of SCA level northeast winds continuing tonight and Sunday. For Sunday night through Tuesday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level northwesterly winds across all the Outer Waters. For Wednesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday night, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Monday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level northwest winds in the afternoon and evening hours. For Tuesday and Wednesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For today, high confidence in SCA level northeast winds and choppy seas with a 50-70% chance of Gale force winds from Point Mugu to Santa Monica. Therefore, a GALE WARNING remains in effect through this afternoon. For tonight and Sunday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level northeast winds continuing from Ventura southward with the strongest winds between Point Mugu and Santa Monica. For Sunday night through Wednesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until noon PST Sunday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369>372-374-376>381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Wind Warning in effect until noon PST Sunday for zone 375. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Hard Freeze Warning in effect from 2 AM to 8 AM PST Sunday for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Red Flag Warning in effect until 3 PM PST Sunday for zones 288-354-355-358-362-369>372-374>380. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST Sunday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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Los Angeles (outer harbor), California, Tide feet

Long Beach
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Sat -- 03:25 AM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:15 AM PST     5.78 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:45 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:19 PM PST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:22 PM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:44 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:27 PM PST     3.65 feet High Tide
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Long Beach, Terminal Island, California, Tide feet

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