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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 844 Pm Pst Sun Dec 10 2023
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 10 seconds.
Mon..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming nw 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds.
Mon night..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 8 seconds.
Tue..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.

PZZ600 844 Pm Pst Sun Dec 10 2023
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park...at 03z or 7 pm pst, a 1025 mb was located 700 nm west of los angeles, and a 1011 mb low was located south of arizona.

FXUS66 KSGX 110506 AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 906 PM PST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure over the West will weaken rapidly tonight and Monday, flipping our winds back onshore, and bringing cooling and higher humidity west of the mountains through Wednesday morning. Another surge of offshore winds from the north begins on Wednesday. This next round of dry, Santa Ana winds will become more widespread across Southern California through the end of the week as high pressure rebuilds over the West. After a period of thicker high clouds on Monday, skies should be fair, with warm days and cool nights into next weekend.

DISCUSSION
FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

9 PM Update: High clouds continue to stream inland over SoCal this evening. Santa Ana winds have largely diminished across the region, with a few gusts of 20-30 mph ongoing below both the Cajon and San Gorgonio Passes. A trend back to onshore flow occurs tomorrow, and will be kicked into a higher gear by the development of a coastal eddy Monday night. No changes to the forecast appear necessary this evening.

From Previous Discussion:

There were some thin, high clouds drifting slowly east over the State this afternoon, but sunny skies ruled, and it was mild. At 2 PM PST 70s were widespread over the valleys and Orange County.
Gusty, Santa Ana winds continued, but were weakening along the coastal foothills and canyons, and below the major passes. Strongest gusts remained below the Cajon and San Gorgonio Passes, where peak gusts were still over 40 MPH. The winds have peaked, and will slowly diminish for the remainder of the day. A peak wind gust summary is headlined on our webpage. The Wind Advisories will be allowed to expire at 3 PM PST.

Strong high pressure aloft and over the Great Basin is weakening this afternoon, this will relax the sfc pressure gradient, and allow NE winds to weaken, even as temperatures soar to well above average.
Don't let the warm afternoon fool you though once the winds drop, so will the temperatures in this very dry airmass. It may not drop as much as last night though, due to increasing high clouds from the NW.
They may enhance or sunrise tomorrow morning, but they could also dim the sun on Monday. The combination of additional high clouds, falling heights/thickness, and weak onshore flow will make for a cooler afternoon, especially along the coast. The high clouds should clear Monday night, but the marine air will continue to spread inland, continuing the slight cooling trend through Tuesday under sunny skies.

The marine air west of the mountains, will again begin to be scoured out on Wednesday, as a northerly, offshore wind develops. This could be moderately strong and gusty for a time over northern areas, as an upper low digs south into the Lower Colorado River Valley. The track of this system is still somewhat uncertain, but the trajectory still provides good upper support for the N-NE winds over northern parts of the CWA on Wednesday. It looks to move east rather quickly though, leaving the offshore surface pressure gradient from the Great Basin to take over forcing for the remainder of the week under the amplifying upper-level ridge over the West. This will continue our Santa Ana type weather into the weekend, with a warm and very dry airmass in place under fair skies. The offshore pattern favors areas west of the mountains for the warmest afternoons, but all areas will be mild for the latter half of the week. The nights will still be cold along the coast and in the valleys though.

Our attention turns farther west over the EastPac for next week. The ensemble means show a large cutoff low forming about 900 miles west of San Francisco. Cutoff systems are always trouble to forecast, and that is born out with a look at the ensemble solutions, especially for timing into SoCal. We see start times for rainfall from Sunday to Wednesday, and not a whole lot either. This is because by the time it opens up and moves, it's weakening fast. Current trends are not encouraging for SoCal getting much precipitation next week.



AVIATION
110500Z...SCT-BKN clouds at/above 20000 feet MSL with unrestricted VIS will continue through Mon evening.

MARINE
No marine weather hazards are expected through Friday.

FIRE WEATHER
A modest recovery will occur in maximum humidity tonight, but the minimums will again be in the 10-15% range on Monday. There may be a few easterly gusts around 20 MPH in the morning below the passes, but overall, winds will be light on Monday, and trending back onshore. This will bring a much more robust RH recovery later Monday through Wednesday morning as a shallow marine layer spreads farther inland.

Santa Ana winds will develop again Wednesday morning, and continue for the remainder of the week. For now, model consensus is that this event will be of weak to moderate strength, but there is still enough uncertainty in the various ensemble solutions to suggest some stronger wind gusts are still possible, especially over northern portions of the forecast area on Wednesday. Dry, offshore flow continues for the remainder of the week.

SKYWARN
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.



SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...None.

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Los Patos (highway bridge)
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Sun -- 01:32 AM PST     1.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:28 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:45 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:45 AM PST     4.98 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:55 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:10 PM PST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:43 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:18 PM PST     3.05 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Los Patos (highway bridge), California, Tide feet

Santa Ana River entrance (inside)
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:07 AM PST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:27 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:45 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:08 AM PST     3.24 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:54 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:45 PM PST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:43 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:41 PM PST     1.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Santa Ana River entrance (inside), California, Tide feet

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Santa Ana Mtns, CA,