Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sunset Beach, CA

DISCUSSION
FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

Update: The forecast is still on track with the progression of a trough moving in by later in the week through the weekend, and allowing for some increased clouds and much cooler temperatures as it does. There could also be some areas of drizzle possible tomorrow night into Thursday morning, with the best chance being during the early morning hours as the marine layer continues to thicken the most around 3 AM. The chance of drizzle and light rain will further increase towards the end of the week as 500 mb heights continue to fall to around 562 to 568 dm by Friday morning. This will also cause the pressure gradient to tighten up and create some strong and gusty winds for the mountains and deserts, and especially the passes and areas prone to strong and gusty winds as the trough passes over the region from Friday and through the weekend. Temperatures are expected to be well below the seasonal average for this time of year by Saturday, with the inland valleys only getting into the low to mid 60s for highs. Even the deserts will feel pleasant, with highs in the 70s, when averages for this time of year are closer to the 90 degree mark. There will only be a slight rebound on Sunday, with a continued warming trend going into early next week.

(Previous discussion submitted at 131 PM):

At 1 PM, low clouds had cleared land but areas of low clouds were lingering offshore. Low clouds will quickly move back inland early this evening. The marine layer should deepen tonight, likely filling in the entire coastal basin as a trough deepens and moves across the Pacific Northwest. In addition to widespread cloud coverage, westerly winds will be elevated Wednesday afternoon and evening through passes and locally into the deserts.

Highs on Wednesday will be fairly similar to today, with a few degrees of cooling in the mountains and deserts. The cooling trend will continue into Thursday, with highs in the deserts falling to near average with the western valleys and inland Orange County around 4 to 8 degrees below average.

Friday through the weekend a deeper low will move across the West Coast. Ensemble guidance is in better agreement in the track of the low compared to 24-hours ago. By Saturday, the majority of ensemble clusters indicate the trough will dig into either northern or central California. That will bring a more significant cooling, with the potential for stronger winds for the mountains and deserts, and even some light precipitation or drizzle to areas west of the mountains. Timing wise, the trough is expected to pass through Southern California Saturday evening into Sunday. NBM chances for wind gusts reaching or exceeding 45 mph on Saturday afternoon and evening are around 90 percent for the mountain passes and 50 to 60 percent for the deserts. NBM chances for measurable precipitation (at least 0.01 inches) Saturday into Sunday are 5 to 10 percent for the coast and valleys and up to 25 percent for the coastal mountain slopes. NBM seems to be on the more pessimistic side of the probability of precipitation with GFS and ECMWF MOS having chances for measurable precipitation higher and more consistent with the pattern, around 15 percent near the coast to 20 to 30 percent in the mountains.

Dry with a warming trend for early next week with Tuesday high temperatures warming to around average. The marine layer will become shallower with coastal low clouds not extending as far inland.

AVIATION
230300Z
Coasts/Valleys
Low clouds at 1800-2200 feet MSL with tops to 3000 ft MSL have spread along parts of the San Diego County coast and will push inland and fill the coastal basin overnight. Vis reduced to 0-5 SM far inland and against the coastal foothills. Scatter out Wednesday 17-19Z. Low clouds 2000-2500 ft MSL spread ashore again after 00Z Thursday and into the coastal basin through Thurs morning.

Otherwise...Mostly clear through Tuesday evening.

MARINE
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday.

SKYWARN
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.



SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...None.