Thursday, October22, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Coachella, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 6:03PM Thursday October 22, 2020 4:30 PM PDT (23:30 UTC) Moonrise 1:22PMMoonset 11:25PM Illumination 36% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Coachella, CA
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location: 33.73, -116     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 222234 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 334 PM MST Thu Oct 22 2020

SYNOPSIS. A gradual cooling trend is expected over the next several days as high pressure south of the region weakens. Considerably cooler conditions will move into the region early next week as a strong storm system settles across the Desert Southwest. Decent chances for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are also expected as early as Sunday afternoon, likely lasting through Monday night. The best chances for significant rainfall will fall over the high terrain north and east of Phoenix where total rainfall amounts could exceed one inch.

DISCUSSION. The cooling trend commences with a broad longwave trough now in place across much of the U S. The next few days the cooling will be gradual, with afternoon temperatures likely remaining several degrees above normal through Saturday. Forecast highs this afternoon and Friday are expected to be in the lower 90s to right around 90 across the lower deserts before dipping into the upper 80s by Saturday. The environment is still fairly dry across the region. However, there was a push of low level moisture up from the Gulf of California last night that led to some dense fog and shallow stratus this morning in the Imperial Valley. Low level moisture levels will continue to climb gradually with southerly flow into the region. HREF and hi res model soundings, suggest fog/low stratus is a possibility again Friday morning in the Yuma to Imperial Valley area.

The main forecast concern over the next week continues to be the potential impacts from an anticipated deep positively tilted trough digging southward through the Western U.S. over the weekend before reaching our region late Sunday into Monday. There is still very good model agreement that the vorticity maximum with the trough will pass directly through AZ and temperatures will fall significantly, but there is still higher model spread and increased forecast uncertainty in terms of the strength of the trough, how far west it digs, and precipitation onset, placement, and amounts.

The first part of Sunday should be relatively quiet just ahead of the main system, but winds are likely to become breezy to locally windy out of the southwest by early afternoon. ECMWF and GFS show a weak to moderate IVT plume, downstream of the low pressure center currently over the EPAC, advecting into the Desert Southwest as early as Saturday, leading to a significant increase in mid and high clouds and helping moisten the atmosphere through Sunday. There is still a good deal of uncertainty on when exactly the first showers and possibly thunderstorms will develop. For now, the most likely scenario calls for a mostly dry first part of Sunday, but with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms by late Sunday afternoon and evening as the EPAC low progresses east inland, just ahead of the more poignant trough digging down from the north. Precip chances Sunday are especially favored in upslope areas just east and northeast of Phoenix. Conceptually, this makes sense as there should be some additional moisture advection in the mid levels on Sunday while colder air begins to filter southward through most of the region starting Sunday afternoon. There are also some hints of frontogenetical forcing through south-central Arizona later on Sunday. If we were to have any chance of stronger thunderstorms with this system, it would likely occur later Sunday afternoon into the early evening hours when models generally show the highest available CAPE as well as fairly strong bulk shear.

For late Sunday night through most of Monday, the main PV anomaly and the strongest upper level energy associated with the system dropping down from the north are likely to affect at least the eastern 2/3 of Arizona. Keep in mind, there is also increasing model spread by this point, so there can still be some shift in the timing and the placement of the strongest upper level energy. There are still a wide range of possibilities as far as rain chances and possible rainfall amounts through Tuesday, but it does seem likely much of the eastern half of Arizona will see at least some rainfall with considerably lower chances closer to the California state line. The latest forecast QPF amounts are barely higher than the previous forecast with a range of 0.2-0.5" in the Phoenix area and locally higher over the higher terrain east and northeast of Phoenix. Any significant changes to the track of the low pressure system will ultimately affect potential rainfall amounts. Latest WPC cluster guidance, still shows a large variance among the EPS, GEFS, and CMOS members with how far west the trough digs. Beyond Monday, there are still some ensemble members (~20%) keeping a cutoff low over AZ through Wednesday. However at this time, the other 80% of members have the vort max pushing east of the area by Tuesday night. So for now, it seems most likely consequential rain chances will come to an end by sometime late Tuesday.

Another factor that may play a roll in precipitation amounts with this event will be precipitation placement. A lot of dry air is expected to advect south on the back side of the trough with a strong northerly wind. GEFS shows PWATs crashing by Monday evening, especially along the Lower Colorado River. As a side note, 925-850 mb winds in southeast CA and southwest AZ may reach 40-50 kts late Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Which may meet wind advisory criteria and lead to elevated fire weather concerns if these winds are able to still mix to the surface. The best available moisture will likely remain just downstream of the trough axis and could become focused over certain areas. Frontogenetical banding and storms may lead to localized to areas of higher rainfall amounts. While the current forecast QPF for the Phoenix area is only around a quarter of an inch, the range of solutions is still anywhere from no rain to 1.5" as suggested by the 12Z EPS spread.

The temperature forecast during the upcoming weather system is definitely of higher confidence compared to the rain forecast. Highs Sunday are likely to only top out in a 80-85 degree range just before the cold front moves through, while highs Monday and Tuesday are likely to struggle to get into the lower 70s. Overnight lows will become quite chilly starting Monday night with readings dipping into the 40s in most areas. We should eventually see temperatures climbing back to around normal readings at some point during the latter half of next week.

AVIATION. Updated at 1725Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No aviation weather impacts expected through Friday. Light, diurnal winds and mostly clear skies will persist at all TAF sites.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Southeast winds this morning across the Imperial Valley are expected to veer to the west this evening. Meanwhile, winds with a southerly component will generally persist through Friday at KBLH. Main aviation impact will be the potential for low clouds and fog redeveloping early Friday morning. Latest guidance suggests the best chance will remain east of KIPL and closer to Yuma. Will leave the mention of fog and reduced visibilities out of the KIPL TAF for now due to the uncertainty.

FIRE WEATHER. Sunday through Thursday: A major cooling trend is anticipated during this period. Modest cooling continues Sunday with lower desert highs mostly in the mid to upper 80s and by Tuesday readings are anticipated to be in the upper 60s for most lower desert locations. This is due to the passage of a low pressure system from the north. It will also lead to breezy to windy conditions Sunday and Monday with continued northerly breeziness on Tuesday over southeast CA and southwest AZ. In addition, there will be an opportunity for rainfall (mainly over south-central AZ) in the Sunday through Tuesday time frame. In fact, current projections are that the higher terrain of south- central AZ could get storm total rainfall amounts ranging from 0.5 to 1.5 inches (less than 0.5 for the lower elevations - especially away from south-central AZ). Humidities will increase (most noticeably over south-central AZ) with Min RH values on the lower elevations of 20-30% and Max RH values of 50-70%. Humidities will begin to trend down from west to east on Monday.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . None. CA . None.

DISCUSSION . Benedict/Kuhlman AVIATION . Hirsch FIRE WEATHER . Percha/Kuhlman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46224 - Oceanside Offshore, CA (045) 87 mi35 min 71°F3 ft

Wind History for La Jolla, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Palm Springs, Jacqueline Cochran Regional Airport, CA11 mi39 minS 410.00 miFair90°F59°F35%1005.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTRM

Wind History from TRM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE3CalmCalmNW3N4N5N5N8N7N4N5N4N4NW3CalmCalmCalmS4----S6S5S4
1 day agoSE5CalmW3N4N4N4N3CalmNW4CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalm34CalmS6S4S4
2 days agoSE7SE5CalmNW4NW5N7NW9NW8N5N4N7N6N7N3NW4N5N3W4CalmS3E4SE6SE9SE7

Tide / Current Tables for San Clemente, California
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San Clemente
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:48 AM PDT     3.47 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:01 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:40 AM PDT     2.97 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:27 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:55 PM PDT     4.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:07 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:59 PM PDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:32 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.82.53.13.43.53.43.2333.13.544.54.954.84.33.52.61.60.80.30.10.3

Tide / Current Tables for La Jolla, Scripps Pier, California
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La Jolla
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:03 AM PDT     3.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:59 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:36 AM PDT     3.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:24 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:54 PM PDT     4.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:07 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:59 PM PDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:32 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.82.53.13.43.53.53.33.23.23.33.74.14.54.954.84.33.62.61.70.90.40.20.4

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station San Diego, CA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.