Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Coachella, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 7:23PM Friday August 23, 2019 10:20 PM PDT (05:20 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:32PM Illumination 38% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Coachella, CA
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location: 33.73, -116     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 240501
afdpsr
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
1001 pm mst Fri aug 23 2019

Update Updated aviation discussion.

Synopsis
Although temperatures will be cooler the next couple days, humidity
levels will be significantly elevated. Thunderstorm chances will be
relegated mostly to the south of phoenix through Saturday, but a few
isolated storms could sneak into the phoenix metro, especially late
this evening into Saturday morning. Drier air will move into the
region through the first half of next week, basically ending storm
chances. Temperatures will start climbing again early next week with
Tuesday and Wednesday possibly topping 110 degrees across the lower
deserts.

Discussion
A very complicated flow pattern and environmental setup persists
this afternoon as deep troughing progressing through the great basin
has displaced the h5 anti-cyclone into southwest new mexico keeping
light southerly flow through most of arizona. However, the h3 jet
core has already passed eastward yielding anomalously strong
northerly flow while the h7 high pressure center was supplanted into
northern sonora providing a drier westerly flow just above the
boundary layer. This strange configuration of anti-cyclone centers
along with interrogation of WV imagery suggests increasing anti-
cyclonic subsidence and drying in the middle troposphere enveloping
much of the northern 2 3rd of arizona.

Boundary layer analysis depicts a totally different picture with 12z
kpsr and ktwc sounding data sampling 12-13 g kg mixing ratios in
conjunction with widespread sfc dewpoints in the low 60s to low 70s.

However, sounding data also showed this moist layer relatively
shallow (sfc-800 mb at phoenix and only sfc-900mb at yuma) and very
susceptible to mixing of dry air from aloft. In fact, 20z sfc
dewpoints had already fallen into the middle 50s to low 60s
suggesting boundary layer mixing ratios down towards a 10-12 g kg
range. Really, no large forecast change into this evening as href
and other high resolution members continue to suggest a convective
evolution this afternoon not terribly dissimilar from yesterday.

Storms will most likely become prevalent from cochise pima counties
into southern pinal and southwest maricopa counties though 20z
satellite imagery and objective analysis only shows cochise county
favorable for deep convection. Further north and west, the
environment will be somewhat more hostile for convective development
with notable inhibition on forecast bufr soundings despite holding
10-11 g kg sfc-800 mb mixing ratios. Not to say a deeper outflow
couldn't spark a few storms, but the preferred colliding outflows
are not likely and the preponderance of model evidence along with
the underlying inferred weak sinking motion in the atmosphere argues
against much storm activity this afternoon and evening into major
population centers. Dissipating outflows and localized blowing dust
still appear as the greatest (albeit limited) threats south of the
phoenix metro.

Further investigation of 12z model output only reinforces evidence
that some combination of another robust gulf surge, infusion of
residual moisture around the h8-h7 layer through outflows, a
potential gravity wave, and favorable jet divergence will result in
modest theta-e advection through parts of south-central arizona. If
these influences align correctly Saturday morning as suggested by
several cams, a couple isolated communities around or south of the
phoenix metro could get a "sunrise surprise" of elevated storms.

Confidence is not tremendous, but enough to increase pops above
automated guidance as a few of these isolated sunrise events occur
every monsoon season (although very difficult to forecast).

Drier air will steadily erode moisture from above as an elongated
east pacific h5 ridge builds eastward resulting in predominant ne
flow above h7, while also promoting substantial warming aloft and
synoptic scale subsidence. Due to the prevalence of recent gulf
surges and lingering thick low level moisture, deep westerly flow in
the sfc-h7 layer will counter the drier air aloft and keep humidity
levels somewhat elevated through the weekend. Each successive day
through the middle of next week should yield a drier daily outcome.

With such warming above the boundary layer, convective inhibition
will be quite strong and prohibitive of storm development. As has
been common this monsoon season and inability to hold moisture in
place, an extended Sunday-Wednesday time frame will result in
pops less than 5% given this scenario.

As a 594dm h5 anti-cyclone eventually becomes centered over arizona,
heat will once again become the main weather theme. The hottest day
still looks to be Tuesday and model guidance has been trending a bit
warmer over the past several runs. After highs 2f-5f above normal
Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday will likely top out some 5f-8f above
average and likely touching 110f in many lower desert locations. If
the warmer model trends continue, next Tuesday and Wednesday may
require an excessive heat headlines though current indications show
a marginal borderline event with respect to local criteria. Though
still around a week away, there seems to be some indication of
robust moisture return, more favorable dynamics, and thunderstorm
chances returning during the latter half of next week. Both the
european and GFS ensemble means show a substantial increase in
monsoon moisture into southern arizona and even southeast
california, and a better idea of this potential should be attainable
by early next week.

Aviation Updated at 0500 utc.

South- central arizona including kphx, kiwa, ksdl, and kdvt:
there are a few showers popping up south of phoenix but they do
not look like they will have an immediate impact on aviation.

Currently, an outflow is moving towards the valley but is most
likely to impact kiwa. Otherwise, the westerly winds will mostly
prevail overnight with some gusts. The winds at kiwa are a little
more suspect and may be variable at times.

Late tonight toward sunrise, there are indications that a batch
of more modest intensity showers will develop over pinal county
and into southern eastern portions of metro phoenix. If that were
to happen, most likely timing would be between 11z-16z. Confidence
remains too low at this point to insert -shra into the tafs.

Southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
south and southeasterly winds will prevail today and tonight as
one gulf surge damps out and possibly another comes in late
tonight. Not enough instability for storms though. In fact,
anticipate clear skies except perhaps for some hazy conditions in
the morning over the imperial valley - depending upon development
of another surge.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Monday through Friday:
unusually dry conditions for late august will prevail through the
first half of next week with only slight chances of high terrain
thunderstorms later in the week. With this dry airmass, temperatures
will once again warm near excessive levels as afternoon highs peak
some 5f-10f above average. Afternoon humidity levels will fall into
the teens during the early part of the week, but increase closer to
a 20-30% range late in the week. Occasionally gusty upslope terrain
winds are likely through the week, though nothing too unusual for
the season.

Spotter information statement
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... None.

Ca... None.

Discussion... Mo kuhlman
aviation... Deems rogers
fire weather... Mo


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46224 - Oceanside Offshore, CA (045) 87 mi50 min 72°F3 ft

Wind History for La Jolla, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Palm Springs, Jacqueline Cochran Regional Airport, CA11 mi3.5 hrsN 09.00 miFair101°F46°F16%1004 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTRM

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Last 24hrNW11NW4N3N8W4SE3W4NW6N4N7NW7N4SE8SE7SE9SE7SE11
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Tide / Current Tables for San Clemente, California
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San Clemente
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:21 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:43 AM PDT     3.01 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:19 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:44 AM PDT     2.60 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:38 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:38 PM PDT     4.92 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:25 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.72.12.52.8332.92.82.62.62.73.13.54.14.54.94.94.64.13.32.51.71.1

Tide / Current Tables for La Jolla, Scripps Pier, California
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La Jolla
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Sat -- 12:21 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:58 AM PDT     3.02 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:18 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:28 AM PDT     2.74 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:35 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:34 PM PDT     4.99 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:23 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.72.12.42.83332.82.82.82.93.23.74.24.74.954.74.13.42.51.71.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Diego, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.