Sunrise 5:48 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 1:42 PM   Moonset 2:23 AM

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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 140 Pm Pdt Thu May 16 2024
Tonight - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 15 seconds. Fri - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds and sw 2 ft at 17 seconds. Fri night - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 4 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 17 seconds. Sat - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 18 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Sat night - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds and S 2 ft at 18 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Sun - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 9 seconds and sw 3 ft at 17 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Sun night - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds and S 3 ft at 17 seconds. Mon - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 4 ft and S 2 to 4 ft. Tue - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 4 ft and S 3 ft.

PZZ600 140 Pm Pdt Thu May 16 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 20z, or 1 pm pdt, a 1030 mb surface high was centered 1000 nm west of portland, oregon. A 1004 mb low was located in southern nevada.

FXUS66 KLOX 170030 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 530 PM PDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
16/135 PM.

Strong onshore flow and a persistent marine layer will remain in place at least through the weekend. Night through morning low clouds and fog will be a staple of the forecast, clearing to the beaches each afternoon. Breezy to gusty onshore winds will occur each afternoon and evening across the interior valleys and adjacent foothill areas. Some warming with earlier clearing is possible next week.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...16/144 PM.

Very seasonably typical deep marine layer pattern this week and likely at least through the weekend as a weak troughing pattern continues to promote strong onshore flow. Temperatures will remain 3-6 degrees below normal across coast and valley into the weekend with slow (if any) clearing. Most valley areas should see at least some clearing in the afternoon but coastal areas will struggle, especially south of Pt Conception. Some drizzle is possible each morning, especially up against the coastal foothills. Farther inland such as the Antelope Valley, mountains, and interior SLO County skies will remains clear but breezy in the afternoon (especially near the AV) with temperatures a few degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...16/157 PM.

There is growing confidence that this persistent marine layer/strong onshore flow pattern will at least temporarily take a break early next week. The NAEFS ensemble gradients agree with the deterministic model gradients in showing a much weaker onshore flow by Tuesday following the passage of a trough through the Great Basin. This would create a stronger northerly component to the winds which will promote much earlier marine layer clearing and a warming trend for coast and valleys. Current forecast for next week still on the conservative side with very little change in temperatures, but if the ensembles continues to trend this direction the forecast should indicate a warming trend to at least normal temperatures soon.

AVIATION
17/0029Z.

At 00Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2600 ft deep. The top of the inversion was 4600 feet with a temperature of 22 C.

Moderate confidence in coastal and valley TAFs, and high confidence in desert TAFs. Expect similar conds tonight compared to last night, with widespread cig restrictions for non-desert sites. Timing of cig arrivals may be off by +/- 90 minutes from the forecast time, and timing of clearing may be off by +/- 2 hours. There is a 20-30% chance of little-to-no significant clearing tomorrow for coasts and valleys south of Point Conception.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. OVC015-OVC25 cigs may return tonight +/- 90 minutes from the forecasted time of 04Z, and there is a 30% chance that the cigs will persist through the day tomorrow. No significant easterly wind component is expected, however there is a 30% chance of the south wind component reaching 6 kt from 10Z-17Z Fri.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. OVC015-OVC25 cigs may return tonight +/- 90 minutes from the forecasted time of 05Z, and there is a 20% chance that the cigs will persist through the day tomorrow.

MARINE
16/119 PM.

In the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in the forecast.
There is a 40% chance that winds reach Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
levels this afternoon and evening -- highest chances in the southern two zones (PZZ673/676). There is a 20-40% chance of SCA winds/seas over the outer waters Sun night thru Tue -- highest chances in the northern two zones (PZZ670/673). Otherwise SCA conds are not expected.

For the Inner Waters N of Pt. Sal, high forecast confidence.
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels thru Tue.

In the Inner Waters S of Pt. Conception, moderate to high forecast confidence. There is a 20% chance of SCA level winds in the western portion of the SBA Channel this afternoon/evening and again during the afternoons of Mon and Tue. Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

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